Opening Comments
My last note was about dropping off my kids at Wake Forest and becoming an empty nester. I heard from a lot of readers about their experiences at drop off, and most agreed that we overdo it and need to let the kids do more on their own. The most opened links were the Bryan Cox video about travelling at the speed of light and the article about Natalie Harp’s letters to Trump.
World class entertainer Dolly Parton died at 80 years of age. Dolly was a force of nature and an amazing songwriter, performer, actress, and personality. She wrote over 3,000 songs during her career. I had the pleasure of seeing her perform about 10 years ago and she was truly remarkable. My favorite song of hers is “Jolene.” My favorite line she ever said, “It costs a lot of money to look this cheap.”
I was in the Hamptons for a couple days and then in the city for a few meetings. I ate at Babbo and Borgo and will review both. I am now in Pennsylvania for a little golf at Saucon Valley. I am heading to the city for a quick stop and then to Kittansett in Marion, MA on Saturday and Sunday. On Monday, I will be in NYC and then CT next Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heading to the US Open on September 2nd with 3i Members for the evening matches.
Early send due to some meetings. Note that Nvidia earnings are after the close. Interesting stat: Approximately 50% of Nvidia’s employees are worth $25mm or more. I love seeing employees see the benefits of the success of the company.
Markets
Druckenmiller’s View on Bessent’s Latest Move
German Manufacturing Woes
Oil/Diesel/Gas
GS Partner Warns of AI on Replacing Bankers
Crashing Fertility Rates
Surf Club Condo Record Sale
Housing Data-Buyer’s Strike
One of the Consistently Most Affordable Cities in the US
I came across a remarkable video told by a young woman who refused to quit. She was in the Army and working at Target when another woman approached her. The older woman thought the Target employee was beautiful and could be the next Miss USA and convinced her to try to win the state pageant. The young woman entered and lost six straight times over six years. The young woman is a great storyteller, and it is a funny video. She became Miss District of Columbia on her 7th attempt and then became the first soldier to win Miss USA. It is not how you start, it is how you finish. She said, “Do not fear failure but please be terrified of regret.” Michael Jordan was cut by his high school basketball team. Had he quit, we would have never known his greatness.
It was the fall of 2003 on a crisp evening in Greenwich Village. I lived at 20 Fifth Avenue, on the corner with 9th Street. I’ve written before about my crazy penthouse rental, which cost $7,000 a month despite being a three-bedroom-plus-staff-room apartment with three bathrooms, a chef’s kitchen, and a full laundry room. I was living solo, and the story was outlined here.
On this fateful day, I had a date at the restaurant on my block. That doomed location has housed a ton of different restaurants over the years, none of them particularly memorable. The point is, the restaurant was no more than 100 yards from the front door of my apartment.
I met my date at the restaurant, and she brought a couple of friends. The townhouse setting was quaint, but the food was hardly remarkable. We were drinking wine that Saturday night, and every time I went to use the bathroom, there was a line of at least five people. There were only two bathrooms, and one was out of service. I kept going back to the table and continued to imbibe. Despite at least a half dozen efforts to relieve myself, the line was always too long.
It got to be about 10:30 p.m., and I was going to explode. I did not know what to do. I was incredibly uncomfortable and actually sweating. I announced to the table that I was sprinting home to relieve myself. They all laughed at me. I ran out of the restaurant. And then I realized I wasn’t going to make it. I was going to pee my pants.
As the map shows, the distance from the restaurant to the apartment can be measured in yards. I stopped halfway home and started to urinate on the sidewalk. It was a disgusting display, but there was literally nothing I could do unless I peed in my pants. I was so focused on the task at hand that I failed to notice one rather important detail: I was peeing directly in front of an NYPD patrol car with two police officers sitting inside.
The lights started flashing. A window rolled down. One of the officers started yelling at me. There was just one problem. I couldn’t stop. ‘I can explain,’ I said. ‘Just give me a minute.’”
The average time for a man to urinate is supposedly 21 seconds. I’m telling you, mine was a solid two minutes. It might have been the longest two minutes of my life. The relief and euphoria were mind-blowing.
I finished the task at hand and walked the ten feet over to the police car. I walked them through what had transpired. I was calm and poised and felt I gave a clear and compelling explanation for my behavior, but I was nervous. I showed them my ID that proved I lived in the penthouse of the apartment 100 feet from where I stood. I was wearing a pair of jeans, desert boots, a dress shirt, and a navy-blue Ralph Lauren sweater.
I told them my date was in the restaurant across the street, but the bathroom situation did not allow me to use it. They were hysterical. I was crapping in my pants. I was running a trading desk at Chase at the time. Getting arrested for public urination would not exactly have been a career-enhancing move.
They escorted me back to the restaurant to check out my story. The line was now ten people deep, with an ‘OUT OF SERVICE’ sign on the other door. I pointed to my table and my date looked at me with a confused and concerned gaze. The NYPD officers let me go with a warning and laughed as they walked out of the restaurant. All the patrons were staring at me, but between finally relieving myself and not getting arrested, I felt such an overwhelming sense of relief that I didn't care.
For years, I was terrified that anyone would ever find out. But more than two decades have passed, so I can finally share this embarrassing night with my closest friends…as well as countless strangers in 50 states and 107 countries.
I don't remember the name of the restaurant, which has long since closed. Needless to say, I never returned to the eatery, but every time I walked past it on my way to Citarella, I would laugh. Just think what might have happened if those NYPD officers hadn't been so kind. My life could have taken a very different turn. When you gotta go, you gotta go.
Despite a 2.4% drop in oil Monday post the restrictions on Iran, stocks sold off slightly, with the Nasdaq and the Russell underperforming. Treasury yields fell 3bps for the 10-year as well. Of note, Bitcoin rallied for the 3rd day and pushed it to nearly $80k, the highest level since May. Clearly inflation concerns and mounting deficits are contributing to the rally. Of note, gold hit a 3-month high on US $ weakness and was +15% on the month through Monday. Oil fell 3% on Tuesday given Trump’s shift away from military use to economic pressure. Although lower oil is encouraging, it does not solve the substantial amount of refining capacity that is offline largely due to wars in Russia and the Middle East. Rates were lower with the downward pressure on oil, and the 10-year yield fell 6bps on Tuesday to 4.64%. Lower oil and rates helped stocks go green on Tuesday with chip stocks outperforming. Wednesday, stocks sold off slightly after the PCE showed sticky inflation. The PCE data drove the 10-year +3bps to 4.64%. The big news is after the close around Nvidia earnings. Oil was slightly positive after Iran claims to have reached a deal with Oman to share revenue from Hormuz.
I am convinced there is no bigger fan of Stan Druckenmiller than the author of the Rosen Report. He is my investment hero with a remarkable track record. His opinion piece on Bessent’s latest bond buy back attempt is telling and entitled, “Let the Bond Market Speak. I was critical of Bessent’s move last week, but Druck takes it to the next level. He cites all the things I write about constantly: deficits, debt levels, entitlements, interest expense, fiscal irresponsibility…. He suggests that artificially keeping rates down delays the inevitable. “Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination. Suppressed long rates sugarcoat the interest-cost projections, shrink the apparent urgency, and let incumbents assure voters the debt is someone else’s problem.” I continue to outline outrageous spending by the federal government. Although Druckenmiller’s article is spot on, he did not do enough to outline excessive and non productive spending. Great Brookings Institute presentation “Spending, Taxe- and Deficits.” I have often written that the federal government has a spending problem, not a revenue problem, and the chart below outlines it well. The link has numerous impressive charts. I continue to believe that entitlement reform is required. This is a CNBC version of the article. Some are up in arms that Druck used AI to assist him in his article. I don’t get it. The op-ed is brilliant.
I constantly write about the importance of sound business policies and regulations. When you look at states that vilify industry and wealth, they tend to lose companies and high-income people to more “friendly” jurisdictions. Europe is a mess for many reasons including horrible policies of open borders, crazy energy policies, reliance of Russian natural gas, heavy-handed green mandates and more. This article outlines the “Death of Europe’s Industrial Base.” Germany’s largest manufacturer is Volkswagen, and it seems that approximately 50,000 employees may be laid off in coming weeks. The Volkswagen CEO warned, “The global car industry is in the midst of a massive crisis. And the Volkswagen Group is right in the thick of it. Geopolitics, trade barriers, regulation, weak markets and fierce competition are all taking their toll." Whether the issue is the death of a industrial base, the Third World invasion of Europe, or disastrous green and energy policies that have sent energy prices through the roof, Brussels’ terrible decisions are, as Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak described, “seeding political change” that will push the continent “toward more populism.” Remember, in 2018, Trump warned Germany about reliance on Russian energy and the German delegation LAUGHED IN HIS FACE. I love Konstantin Kisin who goes scorched earth on the UK’s “Net Zero” policy and the impact on electricity prices and manufacturing relative to the benefit. I am 100% in agreement with his views.
I have discussed crack spreads (cost to turn oil into refined products such as gasoline and diesel). The crack spreads have blown out due to refining capacity limitations due to the war in Russia and the Middle East. Oil prices are elevated from pre-war levels but remain lower than expected. This is in large part due to the lack of refining capacity. Note that gasoline and diesel prices at the pump remain elevated. Diesel is imperative for freight, farming, mining, and global trade. The move in diesel is inflationary. Gasoline is $4.10/gallon and diesel is $5.61/gallon. Gasoline is +$.95 in a year, while Diesel is +$1.92 over the past year. In California, Diesel is $7.16/gallon or +$2.04 in the past year. NY Buffalo International Airport ran out of jet fuel. Yes, refining issues are serious.
Interesting CNBC article about a Goldman partner who is warning of “huge danger” in letting AI replace bankers’ reasoning skills. Banks need to find a balance between using AI and preserving Wall Street’s apprenticeship culture, Churchman said in an interview on the firm’s “Exchanges” podcast. It is funny, I use AI more each day. I feel it is getting better with fewer “hallucinations.” However, despite the fact that it can brilliantly correct any grammar mistakes, I feel it lacks the understanding of certain situations. As a result, I pay a human to properly edit my piece to check for context. The other day, I made a joke that I thought was hilarious. My editor felt it would be something that offends too many, so I took it out.
I have written extensively about crashing fertility rates and the impact on population growth. For perspective, in the US, fertility rates in 1800, the fertility rate was 7.03. In 1960, it was 3.58, and now it’s 1.60. Remember, the replacement rate is 2.10. Other developed countries are even lower. This article suggests that 2026 is likely to be the first year in human existence where the world as a whole is below the replacement rate. Check out the last chart by Visual Capitalist which outlines counties by fertility rate. Note China at 1.0, Italy 1.2, Spain 1.2, Canada 1.3, Germany 1.5. Then check out the African countries with many over 3.0. What are the ramifications of an aging population with crashing fertility rates? Entitlements tip over with fewer workers. In the US in 1945 (WWII), we had 42 workers per retiree. In 1950, it was 16. We are now at 2.8 workers per retiree and crashing. The rate is projected to be 2.1 by 2050. Yes, we need entitlement reform, but politicians are too weak to make the right decision for our country.
Iranian hackers shut down UK power plant
Unprecedented cyber attack believed to be most successful of its kind
Iran threatens any who join US economic pressure campaign as rial plummets to new low
I did not think it would matter much, but this article suggests otherwise.
Trump admin unveils anti-Iran global sanctions plan, signals China not exempt
Despite Trump’s claims of total annihilation of the Iranian military, that alone did not force the regime to buckle. I feel had Trump continued his aggressive campaign rather than holding off, this mess would be over.
Iran, Oman reach agreement to temporarily reopen Strait of Hormuz as negotiations continue
Hasan Piker’s prediction of violence ‘against American Jews’ rattles Michigan Democrats
Trump’s approval holds at record low as US support for Iran war falls, Reuters Ipsos poll finds
Democrats Are Gearing Up for a Wave of Investigations Into Trump and His Allies
Trump administration preps for potential subpoenas as Democrats lay out investigative targets should they win the House majority in November
Canada unveils retaliatory tariffs on about $20B of U.S. goods
Canada’s new counter tariffs range from 15% to 50% and target a wide array of American imports, including steel and aluminum, dairy, seafood, appliances, wood and paper products and clothes.
Trump admin to target 200,000 foreigners in largest mass visa revocation ever
Doctors say Trump’s weight poses a significant health risk
The president has gained about 20 pounds since his campaign, according to his statements and those of aides.
Gavin Newsom signs controversial ‘Stop Nick Shirley Act’ into law
Let me get this right. Nick Shirley has uncovered billions of dollars of fraud, waste and abuse. These findings will help states save money and prosecute criminals, many of them illegal aliens. However, these woke states like California, which has a MASSIVE budget deficit, does not want to shine a light on fraud? What the hell is wrong with people? If Newsom were to ever win the Presidential election, America would be doomed. Read what Nick Shirley says about this law. If he films a business with no clients receiving millions through Medicaid and the owner gives him a piece of paper saying it cannot be published, then he can’t publish it. If he does publish it anyway, Shirley can face fines.
Listen to this short video of Eman Abdelhadi, a University of Chicago professor who is indoctrinating our kids. She hates her employer and uses her job to use her power to teach kids her horrible ideals. She hates the police. She is the cousin of Abdul El Sayed. You cannot make this stuff up. I attended the UofC for my MBA. I would never go back to that school if I could do it again. She should be fired. She called her employer “evil” in front of a crowd. Sadly, do you know how many professors in America are indoctrinating kids with these horrible beliefs?
Democrat mayor blasted by DHS for ‘hunting down’ property owners leasing to ICE
Listen to Wu’s comments about landlords leasing to ICE. Crazy.
Buc-ee’s CEO signals expansion shift away from blue states that ‘don’t appreciate’ chain
The Texas-based company is seeking communities where leadership supports business growth and family-oriented values
Muhammad Tops Baby Boys’ Names In England And Wales For Third Straight Year
In 2015, Muhammad was not in the top 10. There are now 4mm Muslims in the UK, up from 1.6mm in 2000. The population is forecast to be 13mm by 2050.
Meta settles social media addiction case with California, other states for $16.7 billion
Bill Gates warns ‘there is no plan’ for the ‘upheaval’ AI will cause
Anthropic’s best AI model struggles to attract users as cheaper tools thrive
AI lab’s Fable 5 has met with sluggish demand from corporate clients. This is an interesting development as we had seen corporate users focusing on the most powerful models.
Wells Fargo and Citigroup have room to buy a big bank. These 5 regionals fit the bill
Alibaba plunges after announcing $10.2 billion share placement to fund AI push
OpenAI data center chief Chris Malone is out, the latest in a string of executive exits
The string of executive departures has surprised some investors, especially as the company is working to justify its $852 billion valuation ahead of what is expected to be a massive IPO.
Guggenheim’s Walsh Says Accounting at GPI Unit Was ‘Appropriate’
The ocean just broke a temperature record that may have stood for millennia
Marine heat waves currently cover 42 percent of the planet’s oceans.
As a record-breaking El Niño builds in the Pacific and large swaths of the globe’s oceans are affected by marine heat waves, a significant record has fallen.
Bail-hating NYC judge has knack for cutting accused criminals loose — even in attempted-slay cases
Fan leaps down two rows to stomp fellow spectator in wild brawl during Mets-White Sox game
NYPD investigating video of group climbing out of sewer near Penn Station
All about the 14 suspects in the alleged Penn State cocaine operation
I love the nickname of the ringleader “Pablo Pledgescobar.” Good luck to these boys if they ever want to get a job. This link outlines drug-fueled parties, secret dealing rooms, and brutal hazing. Pledges were forced to bag drugs. Cannot make it up.
Canoodling Central Park lawyer getting forced out of firm after being caught in viral NYC smoochfest
What took so long? The lawyer showed horrific judgement and does not deserve to work at one of the most prestigious law firms in America.
54 Americans among hundreds missing after deadly flood pummels China-Nepal border
Crazy video.
He has some good thoughts in the link.
Men face new pressure to stay ‘hot’ as they age — and it’s not just about living longer
Plastic surgeon says the real driver is a disconnect between how men feel mentally and what they see in the mirror
Hidden cost of buying groceries at Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and 99 Cent Store
Greater access to dollar stores was linked to higher rates of obesity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol and type 2 diabetes.
Just one can of fizzy drink a day DOUBLES stomach cancer risk – except one type
The Surf Club condos in Surfside are the hottest ticket in town. The condos are owned by billionaires and major people in finance and real estate. An LLC named after the address sold unit S-1003 at 9001 Collins Avenue for $30.3 million, or $7,143 per square foot, marking one of the highest recorded price-per-foot deals in South Florida. The seller paid $18.4 million for the unit in July 2025, property records show. That means the seller flipped it for a 65 percent increase, or $11.9 million more, in a year. It has four bedrooms, five bathrooms and one half-bath. As long as awful policies are being deployed in NY, CA, IL, WA, and other states, the wealth migration will continue. Florida welcomes the wealthy with open arms and is a pro-business state with zero income tax. During the pandemic, the restrictions were marginal to the Blue states that had lockdowns in perpetuity.
There were an estimated +51.3% more home sellers than buyers in July, the 2nd highest level on record. This percentage has doubled over the last 2 years. This comes as the number of active homebuyers fell -2.5% MoM, to 966,752, the lowest on record. At the same time, the number of sellers declined -0.3% MoM to ~1,462,921, the lowest reading in a year, but the decline was far smaller than the drop in buyers. As a result, ~80% of major US metros are now buyer's markets, led by Miami, where sellers outnumber buyers by +154%.
This Market Watch article outlines how St. Louis has been one of the most affordable cities for the past 134 years. The divergence in the growth of home prices in American cities over the last 134 years is stark. Between 1890 and 2024, sale-price indexes indicate that home prices were up over 1,000% in San Diego and Los Angeles, and nearly half as much in Boston. The U.S. nationally saw a 354% jump. But in a Midwestern city like St. Louis, prices over that time period have only gone up about 6% when adjusted for inflation. In Cleveland, the figure is about 18%. That’s according to new analysis and data collected by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The article suggests that St. Louis in one of the most affordable markets in the US.
© 2026 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #921 ©Copyright 2026 Written by Eric Rosen.
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