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Most investors optimize for project returns.
This framework asks a different question: Which investments make every future project easier?
The new Transition Acceleration Framework tries to answer that question.
Along with its creators:
CalSTRS — one of the world’s largest pension investors ($400B)
Generate Capital — leading sustainable infrastructure investor ($16B)
Rhodium Group — leading nonpartisan climate/energy research
The farther right a technology sits, the greater its expected climate impact per dollar invested.
Not because it’s bigger today, but because it helps unlock the next wave of deployment.
Build a new system over time.
Not just one company or one project.
Systems change makes the next 100 projects easier, faster, or cheaper by:
Reducing future costs through learning curves
Unlocking new sources of project finance
Building supply chains and manufacturing capacity
Expanding markets and customer demand
Strengthening policy and regulatory support
Not multi-billion-dollar infrastructure funds.
Their motto: Never lose money.
Asking them to fund first-of-a-kind projects is like asking your grandparents to invest in crypto.
For now.
Instead, it’s:
Family offices
Syndicates and angel investors
Venture capital
Corporate venture capital
Philanthropic capital
Government grants
Beyond equity, the tools also look different:
Recoverable grants
Revolving funds
First-loss capital
Pre-purchases of low-carbon assets (e.g., our work at Terraset)
D-SAFE (Development Simple Agreement for Future Equity)
The best investment depends on the question you’re trying to answer. Annoying, I know.
Goal: Changing tomorrow’s energy system
Strategy: Back earlier-stage technologies
Mindset: 0 → 1
Example: Low-carbon cement wins. (graph above)
Goal: Maximize today’s deployment
Strategy: Invest in mature technologies
Mindset: 1 → n
Example: Light duty EVs (graph below)
Make it a great week. It’s usually a choice.
Climate CEO Coach, Founder, Investor, Board Member, Professor
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P.S. Zen Zone: “Wanting to reform the world without [doing deep self-introspection] is like trying to cover the world with leather to avoid the pain of walking on stones and thorns. It is much simpler to wear shoes.” ~ Ramana Maharshi
P.P.S. Climate CEOs podcast: I listened to your requests and answered four important questions about career advice, habits, book recommendations, and two people who had a huge impact on my life. Listen here.
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