Can Americans Even Afford a Burger Anymore?

According to a February 13, 2026, Food Ingredients First article, ground beef hit $6.69 per pound in December 2025 — up 19.3% year-over-year and 72% since 2020 — with the USDA forecasting a further 6.9% wholesale increase in 2026. Further, the U.S. cattle herd fell to a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as years of drought and animal-borne pandemics impacted supply.

The average American now has to think about the drive-through, as the $1 meal is a thing of the past, and it seems that beef herds may not be increased for years.

This is a familiar story with animal protein. Supply can’t keep up with demand. As natural resources, such as land and water, remain constant or diminish — as noted with the aforementioned drought — and the global population grows to 10 billion from 8 billion by 2050 (an increase of 25%), we see that the focus we have on animal proteins presents a problem for feeding the world. Add a growing middle class in Africa, India, and China, all demanding meat, and we see we have a large problem indeed. With MAHA suggesting 50%–100% more protein and GLP-1 users wanting more, the equation is only exacerbated, further increasing prices as supply dwindles.

The expensive nature of a burger doesn’t stop there. The environmental cost is a whopper.

In a September 19, 2024, article, The New York Times noted the externalized environmental cost that society pays for food production, detailing that the environmental cost of beef is $22.05 for a $5.34 meat portion. That is 413%. For cheese, it is $3.76 for a $3.74 portion (101%). Chicken is $1.83 for a $2.20 portion (83%). Chickpeas and tofu environmental-to-portion costs are $0.74 to $1.46 (51%) and $0.21 to $2.42 (9%), respectively. And these costs aren’t factored into the burger price; they are factored into taxes to repair the damage, making the burger cost even more.

So, what is the real cost of a hamburger?

A Big Mac may seem cheap, but upon further review, it is quite costly. In fact, this was explained by the American Institute for Economic Research, which noted in April 2022 that, “The United States federal government spends $38 billion every year subsidizing the meat and dairy industries. Research from 2015 shows this subsidization reduces the price of Big Macs from $13 to $5 and the price of a pound of hamburger meat from $30 to the $5 we see today.”

For a nation that espouses capitalism, watching the U.S. government, through its taxpayers, subsidize the meat industry by tens of billions a year is puzzling. Again, this subsidization doesn’t include the cost taxpayers spend for environmental cleanup. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), our food system, based heavily in animal proteins, costs society $12.7 trillion in healthcare costs, health-related employee production losses, and environmental cleanup. While not all of that is attributed to utilizing animals as protein rather than other less costly sources, it is a considerable chunk given that Americans alone eat over 280 pounds of meat a year on average.

If food is going to be subsidized, wouldn’t it be better to subsidize healthy foods such as vegetables or inexpensive proteins such as beans, legumes, pulses, and whole grains that could keep healthcare costs down and the productivity of employees up?

Subsidies bolstering an inefficient and harmful sector are just one of the many reasons — along with climate change, biodiversity loss, and overuse of land and water — that there is industry pressure to clean up supply chains and production via innovation.

Rising Cost of Beef per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

Trivia: How much of our agricultural land is used to grow meat? Answer below!

There is a silver lining, however. There are protein possibilities that can help to scale protein production to meet increased demand.

To be clear, these innovations are supplemental. Animal factories and grass-fed beef aren’t going anywhere. Everyone will continue to have these options. However, these options along can no longer do the job of getting people the protein they desire. The global demand for protein is too high and the natural resources too limited for the amount of people we have on the planet today.

Supplemental innovations that can ease supply chains pressures and render the protein industry more resilient to price fluctuations and disease (Avian Flu, Mad Cow Disease, Ebola, African Swine Fever) disruptions are:

• Plant-based Proteins: From such headliners as pea and soy proteins, these can be made and seasoned into all types of meat products (and protein powders) such as burgers and sausages. Growing these proteins directly for food requires less land and water than mono-cropping alfalfa and soy for long periods of time to feed animals (getting the meat from the animals weeks, months, or years later; a very long, wasteful, and non-resilient supply chain).

• Hybrid Meats: Burgers made from a mushroom-meat blend can save on natural resources and costs while not sacrificing that great umami taste, adding new, tasty options for the consumer.

• Fermented Biomass Proteins: (with fiber as a bonus!) Made from mycelium, this technology — based in the well-known food tradition of brewing tea, beer, and yeast — is already scaling and proving viable and delicious.

• Cultivated Meat: This technology has a while to go yet, but what a guaranteed crowd pleaser: actual meat grown from the cells of animals without the deforestation and water use needed for growing crops for animal feed. Just skip the animal and all its land, water, time, and food needs altogether! Just get the meat! Brilliant for the global win.

This is actually good news for investors as they seek secular trends with large-scale growth potential. Markets reward the correction of inefficiencies, and scaling outsized returns becomes possible when the novel innovations in which investors invest are adopted at scale. Investing in food system innovation presents an excellent opportunity since it isn’t a question of whether the food system will change, but when, as a world with food shortages would be a world at war.

Keeping enough protein supply to feed the world will be critical. Indeed, the World Bank predicts $450–650 billion flowing to R&D and food innovation each year for the next 10–15 years; an exciting opportunity for innovation and growth.

This is also good news for the industry, which will experience shorter, more resilient supply chains for a better bottom line from diversified protein innovation. In addition, governments will benefit from stronger food security and food independence through innovations like fermented proteins, cultivated meat, and hybrid plant-rich/meat-based products. As prices come down and adoption increases, consumers will also benefit from healthier and more prolific options, as will animals and the planet.

Of course, animal factories, typically lower in price point, and regenerative meat — typically higher in natural resource use and, thus, higher in price point — will still exist, just as gas cars still exist. These options will not go away, and everyone will still have access to them and the option to choose them. But novel innovations in protein added to the supply chain will give consumers more choice while lightening the pressure on natural resources and consumer pocketbooks, yet still keeping up with global demand.

With an upside for governments, industry, and consumers, adding more protein options to the production process seems like the better option over a world of global food shortages and increased global strife.

Trivia: How much of our agricultural land is used for meat and dairy livestock? 80%.

According to our World in Data, 80% of our agricultural land is used for meat and dairy livestock, producing merely 17% of the our calories and 38% of our protein. Conversely, 16% of our agricultural land is used for food grown directly for people, providing 83% of our calories and 62% of our protein.

What I am reading: I suggest FoodFix by Helena Bottemiller Evich if you want to stay updated on the madness that is strategy-barren, food politics.

Thanks for reading today and see you next Thursday,

Elysabeth

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About Elysabeth Alfano

Elysabeth Alfano is a business and policy advisor on efficient food system transformation. She speaks globally on the intersection of food security, resiliency, efficiency, and our global food supply system, including recently at the United Nations Global Compact Leaders Summit, COP27, COP28, SXSW, BloombergTV, FintechTV, Bloomberg Radio, WGN Radio, WGN-TV and more. She has written for Sustain Finance, Chartered Alternative Investment Alliance (CAIA) and Advisorpedia among other publications. She has hosted two podcasts, The Plantbased Business Hour and Upside & Impact, for the New York Stock Exchange’s podcast platform. She is the former CEO of VegTech™ Invest which was the Advisor to the food systems ETF, EATV.

All images courtesy of Stockking by Magnific unless otherwise noted.