Edgerunner Weekly: W31 Aug.10-14, 2026 / 美股市场分析2026第31周8月10-14日

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In last week’s analysis, my verdict was clear: regarding the Iran war, we are safe for the next one to two weeks. Now, one week has passed, and we have been proven safe: the market rallied, and Wall Street doubled down on equities. Those are all good signs.

In case you missed last week’s forecast, you can check it out right here:

Critical events of the week

This week’s CPI data will not be surprising, just like the non-farm payroll. CPI will look pretty good, slightly lower than expectations, and pave the way for rate cuts or for holding the rate until the end of the year.

But that does not mean the stock market will have less volatility. Remember that last week we experienced an unusual combination: when the stock was rising, the VIX rose with it.

As for the earnings, I may buy some shares to take some bets on the earnings release, but I won’t gamble with options. I’ll probably buy some shares, set up a take profit and stop loss, and let it print some quick cash—just like what we did with Palantir a few days ago in our Discord community.

And this time, I’m watching:

• RKLB

• LITE

• SMCI

• CRWV

• MVIS

• AMAT

Just some quick 3-5% grab-and-go. With a stop loss of 1-3% based on the situation.

The Iran war forecast remains unchanged.

My forecast from last week was Scenario 3, which means the peace talks are the strongest evidence that the war will restart. But the real, critical thing is the timing.

This week, investors should watch closely for the Trump administration's announcements on the peace talks.

Two key scenarios to watch for this week:

1. If there is a formal, written deal or agreement to be signed, I will analyze that text line by line.

2. If there is no Text-based deal done this week, that would also be another important signal.

Therefore, regardless of whether a deal is signed, I will release my deep research on the timing this week. I already have most of the information I need, and am now just waiting for confirmation.

Trade book and this week’s planned actions