Economic Weekly June 26, 2026

This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.

The key reports this coming week are the June employment report, June Vehicle sales and Case-Shiller house prices.

----- Monday, June 29th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

----- Tuesday, June 30th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report. The consensus is for a 1.0% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for May up from 0.8% in March.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. The consensus is for a decrease to 60.0 from 62.7.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May from the BLS.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, July 1st -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 118,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from 122,000 added in May.

9:00 AM: Discussion, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Policy Panel Discussion, At the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2026, Sintra, Portugal

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 53.7, down from 54.0 in May.

All day: Light vehicle sales for June. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 16.5 million SAAR from 16.1 million in May. This graph shows light vehicle sales - the dashed line is the May sales rate.

----- Thursday, July 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increased to 220 thousand from 215 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Employment Report for June. The consensus is for 114,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate be unchanged at 4.3%. There were 172,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 4.3%. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

----- Friday, July 3rd -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day

• New Home Sales Decrease to 580,000 Annual Rate in May

• Inventory will Tell the Tale

• Architecture Billings "Weaken further" in May

Data was mixed last week with GDP revised up, but mostly weaker than expected.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $69 per barrel as of this writing, down significantly with easing tensions, up only 6% from late February. The national average gasoline price is $3.87 per gallon, down sharply from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon, but up about 32% since late February. It takes time for lower oil prices to reach the pumps.

• Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

The composite manufacturing index decreased to 4 in June from 13 in May. All three of its component indexes fell in June

This was well below the consensus estimate.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This remains historically weak.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending June 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

This was lower than expected.

• Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2026 (Third Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.

Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.

This was above the consensus estimate of a 1.6% increase.

• Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026

Personal income increased $181.6 billion (0.7 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $164.9 billion (0.7 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $156.1 billion (0.7 percent).

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for May increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for May increased 4.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.4 percent from one year ago.

Personal income and spending were above expectations. The sharp increase in inflation was expected.

• Durable Goods Orders for May

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $15.6 billion or 4.5 percent to $332.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.

This was well below consensus expectations.

This week we will celebrate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed

The American Revolutionary War lasted from 1775 until 1983. And the U.S. Constitution was signed in 1787.

On this anniversary I believe we should celebrate this amazing gift from the founding fathers and rededicate ourselves to the core principles of America. Happy July 4th!