Economic Weekly July 24, 2026

This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.

The key reports this coming week are Q2 GDP, June PCE inflation, and Case-Shiller house prices. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.

----- Monday, July 27th -----

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for June. The consensus is for a 1.6% increase in durable goods.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

----- Tuesday, July 28th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for May.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report. The consensus is for a 1.2% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for May up from 1.1% in April.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

10:00 AM: Housing Vacancies and Homeownership for Second Quarter 2026

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, July 29th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, July 30th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 206 thousand from 187 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.3% annualized in Q2.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

----- Friday, July 31st -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July. The consensus is for a increase to 57.5 from 56.7.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June). The consensus is for a reading of 54.4.

• New Home Sales Increase to 628,000 Annual Rate in June

• Architecture Billings "Remain weak" in June

• NMHC on Apartments: "Tighter Market Conditions" in July Survey

• Housing Inventory: Single Family Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year

There was little economic data last week.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $88 per barrel as of this writing, up significantly following the renewal of hostilities in the Middle East. The national average gasoline price is $4.10 per gallon, up 39% since the end of February, but still down from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This was essentially unchanged year-over-year and this index remains historically weak.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending July 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 187,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 208,000 to 209,000.

This was well below expectations.

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. However, market participants currently put the odds of a rate hike at around 35%, and they definitely expect a rate hike by the September meeting.

From BofA economists:

Our base case is that the Fed will stay on hold at 3.5-3.75% in July. But the spike in oil prices has made it a close call. With markets now pricing nearly 10bp of hikes in July, Chair Warsh faces a difficult choice. Not hiking could challenge the Fed’s credibility on inflation. But raising rates would go against his framework of looking through supply shocks. We think July is Warsh’s call as he has enough votes either way. He has strategic incentives to hike soon. We still expect three 25bp hikes, in Sep, Oct & Dec.

Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. For review, here are the June projections.

Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Real GDP increased 2.1% in Q1, and appears to be around 2.3% in Q2. This looks close to the June projections.

The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in June. This is slightly lower than the bottom of the projected range.

As of May 2026, PCE inflation increased 4.1percent year-over-year (YoY). This is above the recent projections, although inflation in June was weak. However, the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East - and more tariffs - will likely push up inflation in the coming months.

PCE core inflation increased 3.4 percent YoY in May.

Given the significant economic uncertainty, and rising inflation outlook, the FOMC will likely remain on hold at this meeting, but a September rate hike looks likely.