Adults who increased their ultra-processed food intake over 12 months saw their fasting blood glucose rise by an average of 1.66 mg/dl and their triglycerides rise by 6.79 mg/dl, compared with those who cut back. [1]
That’s from a trial that measured actual bloodwork, not just self-reported symptoms. [1]
A separate 8-year study of more than 8,000 adults found that each additional 150 grams of ultra-processed food eaten per day was linked to a 7% higher risk of developing metabolic syndrome. [2]
In this article, you’ll see the specific blood markers affected by ultra-processed food intake, how much of that risk is really about weight gain versus something separate, and what these studies suggest about using the finding practically. So you can see past vague warnings about processed food and understand what’s actually measurably changing.
Researchers tracked 5,373 adults aged 55 to 75, all of whom already had metabolic syndrome, as part of the PREDIMED-Plus trial. Diet was measured with a validated questionnaire at the start, 6 months, and 12 months, and ultra-processed food intake was classified using the NOVA system, the standard framework for grading how processed a food is. [1]
Comparing people whose ultra-processed food intake rose the most against those whose intake fell the most, the researchers found measurable shifts across the board: weight up by just over a kilogram, waist circumference up by about a centimetre, diastolic blood pressure up by 0.67 mmHg, fasting glucose up by 1.66 mg/dl, HbA1c up by 0.04%, and triglycerides up by 6.79 mg/dl.
Every one of these is a real, lab-measured number, not a symptom someone reported feeling. None of these individual shifts looks dramatic over a single year on its own, a fraction of a point on HbA1c, a few millimetres of mercury on blood pressure, but they moved in the same adverse direction across nearly every marker measured, which is what makes the pattern worth taking seriously rather than any single number. [1]
A second study followed 8,065 adults in Brazil for 8 years, tracking who developed metabolic syndrome from a starting point of good metabolic health. Every additional 150 grams of ultra-processed food eaten per day was linked to a 7% higher risk of developing metabolic syndrome.
Comparing the highest to the lowest quarter of intake, the difference was a 33% higher risk. The average intake in this study was 366 grams of ultra-processed food per day, roughly the weight of a large takeaway meal, which gives a sense of the scale involved rather than an extreme or unusual diet. [2]
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Here’s the part that matters for understanding why this happens: when the researchers adjusted the numbers for body mass index, the risk dropped but didn’t disappear, down to a 4% higher risk per 150 grams and a 19% higher risk for the highest quartile. In plain terms, most of the harm seems to track with weight gain, which makes sense given how energy-dense and easy to overeat many ultra-processed foods are. But a meaningful part of the risk remained even after accounting for weight, suggesting something about the foods themselves, not just the calories they add, is affecting metabolic health. [2]
You don’t need to eliminate every processed item from your kitchen to act on this. The data points to a dose relationship, more ultra-processed food tracked with worse numbers in a fairly linear way, which means any reduction in that direction is doing something, not only a complete replacement of your diet.
Since roughly a fifth to a quarter of the risk in these studies was independent of weight, the target worth paying attention to is the ingredient list, not just the calorie count. Swapping a packaged snack for whole food a few times a week, or choosing minimally processed versions of staples you already eat, moves you in the direction these studies measured, without requiring perfection.
Wishing you the best of health,
Adrian
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This article is general health information for adults, not personalised medical advice. It is not a substitute for consultation with your own doctor. The research described here is observational, which means it shows associations but cannot prove cause and effect. Individual results vary. If you have a medical condition, are pregnant, take medication, or are considering changes to your treatment or lifestyle, talk to your own doctor first.
González-Palacios S, Oncina-Cánovas A, García-de-la-Hera M, et al. Increased ultra-processed food consumption is associated with worsening of cardiometabolic risk factors in adults with metabolic syndrome: Longitudinal analysis from a randomized trial. Atherosclerosis. 2023;377:12-23. DOI: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2023.05.022. PMID: 37343432. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2023.05.022
Canhada SL, Vigo Á, Luft VC, et al. Ultra-Processed Food Consumption and Increased Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: The ELSA-Brasil. Diabetes Care. 2023;46(2):369-376. DOI: 10.2337/dc22-1505. PMID: 36516280. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc22-1505
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