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The Iranian “ceasefire” — such as it ever existed — is now officially dead.
This should surprise no regular reader of this publication. From the beginning, I described the agreement as an intermission between belligerents who had neither resolved the underlying conflict nor accepted the demands of the other. The violence continued beneath the diplomatic theater, every new act of war carefully declared insufficient to have technically violated the “ceasefire.”
As many foresaw, the most probable outcome was a continuing, low-level conflict which would simmer until some incident provided the necessary excuse for open hostilities to resume. Following attacks upon commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, the United States launched another major series of strikes against Iranian infrastructure, both civilian and military. Iran answered through missiles and drones attacks across the Gulf, once again demonstrating that every regime permitting its territory to be used against Iran has made itself part of this battlefield.
Trump thereafter announced that the ceasefire was over, threatened to “finish the job,” and issued the now customary promise of overwhelming destruction should Tehran refuse Washington’s latest demands. Yet the threats were accompanied almost immediately by renewed discussion of negotiations. This oscillation between annihilation and diplomacy has become the defining characteristic of the American position: Tehran must surrender — or else — but the “or else” is invariably followed by another invitation to talk.
The most grotesque example came with Trump’s announcement that one thousand American missiles were “locked and loaded” against Iran should the Iranian government attempt to assassinate him. The threat was presented in the media as though Washington had only just discovered some novel Iranian conspiracy this week, courtesy of Israel. We called attention to this alleged cloud of Iranian assassination plots as far back as 2024. Whatever one makes of the underlying allegations, the narrative itself is now nearly two years old. It is being revived again, as it was earlier this year, when Washington requires another moral and emotional pretext for continued aggression against Iran.
How convenient.
The strategic reality nevertheless remains unchanged. America can not compel the surrender of a nation of more than ninety million people without committing to a ground invasion — an invasion we have continually opposed because it would become a bloodbath. Absent that invasion, Iran retains the ability to strike back at the Anglo-Zionist axis and the economic arteries upon which the Western order depends. Despite the bluster, despite all the grandiose rhetoric, by any metric, the US stands in a significantly weaker position now than it did in February.
Trump continues to threaten because, beneath the threats, his regime has no viable path to “victory” — a nebulous and largely undefined concept in its own right.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the stories shaping the week that was…
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