Figuring out a small sample size for a big man.
Cap: $918K
GP: 50
Goals: 4
Assists: 4
Points: 8
Postseason: 0
We’ll dig more into the season itself, but for now, Lian Bichsel’s tracking data reveals a player clearly still developing. Despite his intimidating size, teams have no problem targeting his side of the ice, as evidence by entry targets per 60 (which refers to how often a zone entry occurs against the player). There’s a lot of other stuff to sift through, but for now, of all the players to feel the weight of the new system, it makes sense that the youngest defender on the team would be the one who might struggle the most at having to switch gears from Pete DeBoer’s hybrid zone defense (which mixed zone and man-on-man), and Glen Gulutzan’s box +1 style of collapse defense (discussed more in-depth in April below).
Again I cheat. I have no idea what this show is beyond looking like a discount Punk’ed (which is probably a good thing; Ashton Kutcher sucks). But regardless of how scripted these are, I thought Bichsel handled the prank as well as anyone I’ve seen in one of these. He didn’t get confrontational. He didn’t escalate. You know how sometimes these can be oddly revealing of a person’s character (cough, Zach Braff). Bichsel didn’t fall victim to that. There’s never a perfect way to handle these. But there are ways to mitigate the awkwardness. If Bichsel’s season grade were only about his performance on the show, he’d get an A+.
I thought about giving him a grade, but he only played 50 games this season. If his role were bigger, we could justify a grade given, but Bichsel averaged 15 minutes a game this year. It’s not much, and he didn’t have much to work with. This is where looking at data isn’t super helpful. Bichsel not only played functionally half a season, but his two most common linemates were Alex Petrovic and Tyler Myers. That fact alone highlights what Dallas continues to miss and how unhelpful ignoring defensive depth can be.
Because of that, a card like below isn’t super instructive through a critical lens. However, something worth highlighting.
Bichsel’s in-zone defense still rates extremely high, which I find impressive. If you’re wondering why these in-zone ratings look different than Corey’s card, it’s because Boulet’s model has tacking integrated, but it’s not the sole input. Essentially — again keeping in mind the tracking data was limited — Bichsel is really good against the cycle (see mitigated d-zone pressure), and keeps chances down when he’s on the ice. That’s the bulk of his value.
I would be okay with this on it’s own. If we were talking about a depth forward, and they rated high in various offensive metrics, like playmaking and chance creation, that would be good enough for me. A depth defensemen who prevents offense is sort of the point of the position. So I don’t think this data is a poor reflection of Bichsel’s impacts this year even if his bottom line value is low. But we’re still left wondering what the shape of Bichsel’s development could potentially look like.
I’m still very much a believer in Bichsel’s game. The fact that he does a lot of little things correctly in the defensive zone is something you rarely get out of the big men in hockey. Generic scouting reports have sadly internalized the notion that more size = more readiness. When in fact size is an obstacle for all ends of the spectrum (see his defense partner). It takes skill for Bichsel to be handle the puck so softly at that height, and manage his feet in the corners. He has enough puck skills for me to think he can develop more of a transition game. And he’s not afraid to shoot the puck.
However, if Bichsel does have top four DNA in his blood, how will we ever see it? The left side is firmly locked in place. It’s arguably stuffed crust with Miro Heiskanen already playing his offside just to accommodate the abundance of left shot defenders. If there is more to Bichsel’s game, it’ll be hard to catch it if it blooms because he’ll be on the bottom pair as long as Dallas is in this competitive window. In an ideal world, Lundkvist is his defensive partner, and the Stars have someone more established in Lundkvist’s place. But we don’t live in that ideal world and haven’t for years.
In terms of solace, you might be surprised to know that Bichsel with Myers had okay numbers: average possession numbers, but 53 percent in expected goal share with them on the ice. In the playoffs, they were still above average in said category, although they bled shot attempts a little. Of course, I’m not optimistic about that pair’s future and neither is anyone reading this. While some of their numbers look okay, Myers is not getting any better, which puts further pressure on Bichsel to really develop on his own.
Certainly, things could change. Maybe the duo develops chemistry after all. It’s not like they had a ton of time to figure things out. Or perhaps Dallas makes a move at the deadline to fix the defense core (although given recent history, perhaps they’re better off not making any blue line rentals). Or perhaps a systems change gives Bichsel new life on the other side of the puck. That’s a lot of “perhaps.”
Regardless, I don’t think anyone’s to blame for Bichsel’s season. It was simply a season of too many obstacles. It’s arguably a credit to him that he didn’t stand out in negative ways. Whatever the future holds, there’s still room for optimism when it comes to the gorilla from Olten.
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