What If the Iranian Theocracy Falls?

The situation in Iran right now is so dynamic that any attempt to write about it risks becoming outdated within hours. Presidential pronouncements, conflicting proclamations from whoever controls the Iranian government today, and the mediating (or complicating) efforts of neighboring countries make it difficult to get a picture of the current status in Iran, much less to make any plausible predictions about what will happen tomorrow, next week, or next month.

Yet one possibility, once nearly unimaginable, now deserves serious consideration: What if the Iranian theocracy falls and is replaced by something better? (And almost any alternative would meet that standard.)

The international geopolitical consequences would be immense. But for voters in the United States, another question would immediately follow: How should such an outcome affect our assessment of the performance -- and eventual legacy -- of President Donald Trump?

For a portion of the American electorate, that question is already decided. A substantial number of voters believe Trump is a master strategist and dealmaker who can do no wrong, and for them, tossing the ayatollahs into the dustbin of history is just another in the long line of Trumpian triumphs. Another large block sees him as so flawed that nothing can offset his tremendous personal and political failings, and that not even a victory over the Iranian dictatorship should be celebrated if it’s achieved by a Trump administration. For those most tightly bound to either their adoration for or their hatred of Trump, the outcome of the war in Iran is unlikely to change any minds about him. (See my earlier article, The Two Types of Trump Derangement Syndrome.)

But not all Americans hold such inflexible views. There’s a middle group -- independent voters and those Democrats and Republicans who don’t judge the value of a political action on the basis of Trump’s involvement. These voters have shown greater willingness to recognize that you don’t have to be a good person to achieve a good result, and to differentiate between political outcomes and those responsible for them — i.e., “to judge the act and not the actor.”

And that makes a tremendous difference, because by any standard I can imagine, the actor in this case is a terrible person. Donald Trump is crude, arrogant, and deeply narcissistic. He seems to relish rudeness and cruelty. He is conspicuously greedy and acquisitive. He demands loyalty to himself while showing no loyalty to others, perhaps excepting his children. He shows scant regard for honor, fidelity, or truth, and he lies with a frequency and shamelessness unmatched in modern American politics.

Success in the war against Iran would not change any of those facts. But if the murderous ayatollahs and their henchmen are overthrown, Trump will have accomplished the removal of one of the world’s worst dictatorships -- something that seven previous US presidents sought but never achieved.

That middle group of voters mentioned above may understand and appreciate that. The war with Iran was largely instigated by Trump (not without plenty of provocation by Iran and encouragement of US involvement by Israel, but it’s his project). Victory could justifiably be seen as a huge gamble that paid off. Taking the initiative to resolve a problem that’s plagued the US and most of the world since the overthrow of the Shah of Iran in 1979 would be a tremendous feat, and history is likely to regard it as the defining achievement of his presidency. I expect many voters will as well.

Of course, Trump isn’t eligible to run for president again, so victory in Iran would spark an immediate race among potential 2028 Republican presidential candidates to claim some of the credit. (And failure would be seen as his responsibility -- which would be accurate.)

Trump has run for president three times. I’ve voted against him all three. But if the Iranian theocrats are overthrown, I’ll grudgingly have to admire his willingness to tackle a problem his predecessors couldn’t, or wouldn’t, for varying reasons. It won’t make him a better person, but it will make a positive difference in the world. That matters.

We’ve unfortunately already seen social media posts from Americans gloating over real or imagined difficulties in imposing the American blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and on US aircraft losses in the early stages of the war. Victory over the Iranian regime is a Trump effort, therefore they oppose it. I’m hoping that if the Iranian government falls, the response will be more thoughtful.