Alberta’s separation referendum and the law of unintended consequences

I was recently reminded that it was only 10 years ago that Jason Kenney was campaigning for the leadership of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party. With everything that has happened in Alberta politics since then, it feels like it might as well have been 20 years ago.

The longtime Calgary MP and former federal cabinet minister set his sights on “uniting the right” after the PC Party’s 43-year long streak as govermment was ended in spectacular fashion by Rachel Notley’s Alberta NDP in the 2015 election.

The PC Party’s loss and the NDP’s win was a shock to Alberta’s political system.

Decades of one-party dominance in Alberta (that even preceded the PCs) created a system centered around a PC Party with a big tent that spanned the political spectrum. The PC Party’s survival instincts and electoral success were matched only by the Liberal Party of Canada — another natural governing party that adapted and recreated itself again and again over the last century to get in front of the parade of public opinion.

And it worked like a charm for four decades.

The end of the PC Party’s dynasty in 2015 reshaped Alberta politics in ways that we could never had imagined at the time. The mold of one-party rule in Alberta politics was shattered and the province was all of a sudden competitive.

The Wildrose Party’s rebound under Brian Jean’s leadership launched that party into Official Opposition after former leader Danielle Smith crossed the floor to Premier Jim Prentice’s PC’s in 2014, but it was Kenney’s campaign to lead the then third-party PCs and merge it with the Wildrose Party that sucked up much of the oxygen on the political right.

Kenney’s first ballot win in the PC Party leadership race and contest to lead the newly formed United Conservative Party, which was not without controversy, sealed the new Conservative party’s electoral fortunes and made its win in 2019 almost undoubtable.

But it was the anti-Notley populist furvour that Kenney rode into the UCP leadership race and the 2019 election that would eventually turn on him during the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing him out after a highly contentious leadership review in 2022.

Those populist activists embedded themselves into the UCP and became the party’s most enthuastic supporters. They helped rocket Smith back into Alberta politics and into the Premier’s Office and would eventually push her to call a referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada on October 19.

In a lot of ways, Smith’s years of experience as a media personality and call-in radio show host meant she was much better equipped to navigate the raucuous populist politics of the UCP than Kenney, who had spent nearly two decades honing his political skills in the institutions of Ottawa.

Alberta separatism isn’t something that was invented by Smith’s UCP, it has existed as a cause usually on the fringes of the political right, but Kenney certainly fomented some of the anger we see in separatist circles today.

The era of F-Trudeau and F-Notley flags and bumper stickers and the Fair Deal Panel (which sometimes felt like a separatist open mic night) was a prelude to the Freedom Convoy that crashed into Ottawa and blocked the border crossing at Coutts during the COVID-19 pandemic. And Kenney’s own Citizen Initiative Act is what gave Alberta separatists an institutional tool to air their grievances and force Smith to call a separation referendum.

The activists behind the cottage industry of small right-wing separatist parties that flourished after the Trudeau Liberals were re-elected in 2019 and failed to electorally challenge Kenney’s UCP on the political right have now almost entirely folded into Smith’s UCP. As far as the law of unintended concequences goes, this is a pretty good example of something Kenney never would have expected or planned for when he was running for the PC Party leadership ten years ago.

Kenney has since reinvented himself into one of the leading media pundits and keyboard warriors on the pro-Canada side of the province’s sleepy separation referendum campaign. This is not unwelcome.

With the exception of Forever Canadian leader Thomas Lukaszuk, Kenney has said more in the last six months than any other Conservative politician, current or past (including his old boss, former prime minister Stephen Harper) about the importance of Alberta remaining in Canada.

The nature of Kenney’s departure from the UCP leadership in 2022 raises some questions about who actually remains in his political constituency in Alberta but, nonetheless, he has attached himself to numerous pro-Canada efforts including former Conservative MP Monte Solberg’s Vote to Stay group.

But it’s an announcement last week that raised a lot of political eyebrows.

Something that would have been unexpected and unimaginable a decade ago is the dynamic duo of Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley co-chairing the Canadian Chamber of Commerce Alberta and Canada: Stronger Together campaign.

“Alberta and Canada are stronger together — and a more competitive, prosperous Alberta makes for a more competitive, prosperous Canada,” Kenney said in a chamber press release. “We’re ready to rally with facts and to make the case for a strong Alberta and a united Canada.”

“This is a critical moment for Alberta to build the future we know the next generation deserves” Notley said in the same press release. “We need to be focused on building this province, growing job opportunities across the board, strengthening our healthcare system and vital programs that keep Alberta strong.”

Ten years ago Kenney racked up political wins denouncing a Trudeau-Notley Alliance to destroy the oil industry and today he’s one-half of a Notley-Kenney Alliance to save Canada. Politics sure does make strange bedfellows. It’s amazing how much can change in 10 years.

We are 51 days away from Alberta’s referendums on October 19 and it has been a very sleepy campaign so far. A few groups are hoping to change that this weekend.

The Alberta NDP Caucus is planning a long series of Vote to Save Canada rallies in communities across the province, starting with an event in north west Calgary today at 2:00 p.m..

The separatist Alberta Prosperity Project is holding a rally at the Legislature today starting at 1:00 p.m. ahead of “Alberta Day” on September 1. The rally is expected to be large, with supporters being bused in from across the province.

Public Interest Alberta is launching their with events in in Calgary on September 1, Lethbridge on September 2, and Edmonton on September 3. The public interest advocacy group has taken a position against Alberta separating from Canada and against the nine immigration and constitutional questions on the ballot.

I am tracking the groups, politicians and people on both sides of the separation referendum debate with a growing list that you can find here:

Refer a friend

Thank you for reading and subscribing to Daveberta.

It’s an exciting time to write about Alberta and be able to share my thoughts about what’s happening in my province with the more than 9,200 Daveberta subscribers.

If you like what you read here on Daveberta, please feel free to share it with a friend and tap the “like” button on Substack so that more people will see this newsletter.

Thanks again,

Dave