The End of the Wing Era

Everyone, it’s been a while. Welcome back. I’ve been in the background, observing and following things wondering what to write but not getting to it as I should. It’s time to get back into it with some topics that have been at the forefront of my mind during this blogging hiatus.

• I thought the Pacers would be better than the Celtics, which clearly was silly. Given that the Pacers and Celtics are both clear Eastern Conference contenders when fully healthy, I’m not sure if this says something about Tyrese Haliburton versus Jayson Tatum, but what matters is that I was wrong. I also said that the Mavs would be better than Houston, which is insane in retrospect.

• I also said that the Suns would be better than the Kings. Given that the Suns were behind the Kings in most odds-making win predictions before the season, I’ll claim that win.

• On Bam Adebayo scoring 83 points, I think it’s just rather silly. No, it’s not the same as Kobe Bryant’s 81 against Toronto (you can see the comparison below). But this is how it works.

  • The comps

    • FG: 28-46 (Kobe) vs 20-43 (Bam)

    • 3P: 7-13 vs 7-22

    • FT: 18-20 vs 36-43 (EIGHTEEN MORE FT’S)

    • Team point differential at half time: -14 vs +14

    • Team point differential after 3 quarters: +6 vs +16

  • I don’t blame Bam for scoring that much, a lot of the blame goes on the Wizards for fouling him. But Bam took three less shots than Kobe did and TWENTY THREE more free throws. I don’t feel some righteous indignation about it, but not every 70+ point game is the same like many seem to suggest. And I grew up as a bigger Kobe hater in Laker nation than you did. But it’s fine. It’s fun basketball. But this makes me wonder about Alex Sarr long-term.

• Are the Nuggets good yet?

For a while, the entire NBA has scoured for the next great wing prospect. It makes sense, given the impact that someone who can defend guards, forwards, and bigs (in a pinch) can have. It also hasn’t worked out all that well. I may be wrong on this, but it seems like this era came into full-swing in 2012, when the Hornets selected Michael Kidd-Gilchrist over Bradley Beal and the Kings selected Thomas Robinson over Damian Lillard and Harrison Barnes. Different types of high-potential wing/forwards, the potential era of drafting wing-sized athletes had arrived.

NOTE: Obviously, teams have always considered upside when it came to drafting. But looking back, one might be surprised to see the types of players picked in the top 10 back in the day compared to now. Many times, even as late as 2011 with the great Jimmer Fredette, accomplished college upper class men were selected with clear (at least, in hindsight) questions about their NBA fit. Fun fact: Joe Alexander was selected 8th by the Bucks from West Virginia in 2008 and played 67 total games in his NBA career.

After the 2013 draft, the wing fever felt very validated with the Bucks selecting Giannis Antetokounmpo. Obviously, the rest is history there. But there are dozens of misses for every big hit. 2015 saw Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson selected in the top 8, Dragan Bender (and Ben Simmons, which is a whole different layer to this) highlighted the “size and skill” focus in 2016, and then 2017 the Suns also selected Josh Jackson. The list goes on, and we could go further back beyond the top 10 in the draft as well (Sekou Doumbouya, Ousmane Dieng, and Peyton Watson are all examples there).

Here is a draft scouting report for Sekou (literally just the first on Google). Could be copy-pasted for most of of these guys (highlights “youth”, “tools”, and “flashes”).

It hasn’t all been for naught. Easily, some guys who come to mind are Aaron Gordon, Jaden McDaniels, OG Anunoby, and Jalen Williams who have turned into much of what was hoped for them over time. Jaylen Brown was even drafted on his potential and athleticism as at the wing position and it has worked exceptionally. Also, the top of this upcoming draft class features AJ Dybantsa and Caleb Wilson, both wing-sized super human athletes whose main draw is their potential on the wing.

But is the age of the wing dead?

There’s a theory that I’ve played with that the best players in the sport subconsciously (or maybe it’s the top of mind) inform teams of the players that they should be drafting. The past fifteen years have been dominated by the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard for eight of the 15 finals’ FMVP’s (of the other seven, Andre Iguodala :) and Jaylen Brown also won as wings. Giannis in 2021 had already grown into a fully formed big man, no longer a wing). Kawhi Leonard may have been the most important with regards to drafts, since he was a rare developmental success for an offensively limited wing who became a superstar. Teams were desperate to make their wings work. In the spirit of naming names, I remember distinctly as the Thunder tried Terrance Ferguson, the Bulls believed deeply in Patrick Williams, and the Thunder later drafted Ousmane Dieng over the aforementioned Jalen Williams.

With the most recent best players in the NBA being a canadian 3-named guard, several bigs, and then a whole bunch of guards (with a wing or two like Jayson Tatum thrown in there), it seems like a tide is turning. On the Ringer 100 (which doesn’t currently include Jayson Tatum in the top where he will be once he reaclimates), the first wing-ish player after Kawhi, KD, and Jaylen Brown is Jalen Johnson at 17. But even at the role-player level, wings are being pushed out for smaller guys. Even as size has made a comeback with double bigs, more and more teams are leaning on guards and bigs to make their sauce simmer instead of the all-wing dream of 2010’s Daryl Morey. Some examples:

Last year’s NBA champions played seven players 6’6” and shorter in their main 9-man rotation in the NBA finals. And the tallest of those players? Their point guard, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Jalen Williams and Lu Dort are wings of sorts, but they’re not the 6’8” dream specimens of draft nerds as much as they are stout shooting guards who can look and feel bigger than they are. This year, with Jalen Williams out for much of the season, they have replaced a lot of his wing minutes with *checking notes* combo guards Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain.

Over the last 15 games, the top minute-getters for the Cleveland Cavaliers are James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Sam Merrill, Jarrett Allen, Kings legend Keon Ellis, Jaylon Tyson, Max Strus, and Dennis Schroder. That is also seven of their top nine who are 6’6” and shorter, with only one who could realistically pass as a wing (Tyson, who technically qualifies as a shooting guard on basketball reference).

With Dillon Brooks out, the Suns have not been starting young wings/forwards Ryan Dunn or Rasheer Fleming at the power forward position, but instead Jordan Goodwin or Royce O’Neale (who also doesn’t qualify as a wing, despite what the Jazz probably thought back in the day) next to Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, and Jalen Green. The other night, Goodwin guarded Scottie Barnes from the jump, and the Suns ran them off the floor. Even when Dillon Brooks is healthy, he’s a smaller wing height-wise (not width-wise), and the Suns play three guard-sized players next to him.

The Los Angeles Lakers seem very comfortable having Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves at the helm moving forward, despite the classical understanding that their defense would be antithetical to winning championships. After LeBron leaves, the SnowTime Lakers will do their best to make this work. And it’s no longer the era of the wings!

Philadelphia and San Antonio have decided to do what precedent would suggest is a bad idea and build through the draft via multiple guards. Now, Philadelphia already traded Jared McCain (sorry to my friend Jimmy who still texts me about why that was so dumb), but they’re still building around two smaller guards as their future. As for those in San Antonio, the Spurs have a space alien who doesn’t allow anyone near the rim (in a scary way, looks like it could turn into a Parker/Ginobili/Duncan scenario). But still, after years of Damian Lillard/CJ McCollum, John Wall/Bradley Beal, James Harden/Chris Paul, Devin Booker/Chris Paul, Trae Young/Dejounte Murray, Luka Doncic/Jalen Brunson, De’Aaron Fox/Tyrese Haliburton, one would have thought that the double-guard thing would have been given up on. But alas! No!

This can also be seen in the awards. Last year, eight of the fifteen players awarded in the somewhat-newly-positionless All-NBA team were guards, with Jayson Tatum and Jalen Williams as the only true wings on the ballot. Old man LeBron James was there (probably his first year as an indisputable non-wing) and so was Giannis, along with Jokic, Mobley, and Towns. 2023-24 had more non-guards (Tatum, Kawhi, Durant, LeBron along with Jokic, AD, Giannis, and Sabonis) than guards (7), but looking closely, isn’t it kind of weird how Jayson Tatum is the only true star success story for the wing position? Pascal Siakam and Julius Randle, as great as they are, aren’t as good as their respective peers at the guard position in terms of position ranking.

I believe that many teams have realized that the league’s trends have dictated more and more that skill is more important than athleticism, and the investment of injecting skill into toolsy players may not be worth it at the rates of success that we’ve seen over the past decade plus. Shooting and passing with quick decision making is what makes many of these offenses sing, and the defenses are more framework-oriented than ever with creative switching, ball hawking, and zone defenses. Would a team love to have an Kuminga-type athlete who can do all of these things? Of course! But it seems like the shareholders don’t trust their development teams at this point, given the track record.

Personally, I love when teams are built more traditionally like the Pacers or the Timberwolves with two guards, a wing, a power forward and a center. It feels soothing to an oft-confused basketball fan’s soul who wonders why the likes of a bench wing like Ryan Dunn is bringing the ball up the court after a made basket for his favorite team. But the skills era is here, and the upcoming draft won’t help much after the top four, as the draft seems to have one or maybe two wings (Ament? Lopez?) projected to be picked in the lottery after the top four players.

The wing is still the most valuable position to have a strong player at for obvious reasons, but in the absence of such a player, there’s a new formula that doesn’t include force-feeding minutes to players who aren’t ready for the bright lights. And that is more Collin Gillespie’s (and guys like him).