The Cleveland "2022-23 Phoenix Suns" Cavaliers

On my 27th birthday, I decided to stay up late on the east coast to watch my favorite team (hopefully) advance to the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive season. This was game 6 of the Phoenix Suns versus the Dallas Mavericks, where the home team had won every game handily. But this Suns team had done something special that year, and I was unreasonably hopeful that my good birthday vibes would tangibly impact the team.

That season had felt like everything that Devin Booker’s tenure had been building towards. The whiffs of the 2016 and 2017 drafts, the Ayton pick, the twin wings the fans loved like their own children, the immaculate bubble run, and then the finals run in 2021. Coach of the Year Monty Williams and GM James Jones would lead this team to glory that Phoenix hadn’t known since Randy Johnson donned the purple and teal.

In a much forgotten game (because of what the Mavs did to the Suns in Phoenix in Game 7), the Mavs very unkindly won by 27 and ruined my birthday. Thanks. Then, in Game 7, Chris Paul hit a 3 to cut the lead to forty-whatever in the second half.

Suns fans may remember that some said that there was COVID-19 going around the team, and Booker had gotten hurt the previous round and wasn’t 100% the same. But if you play, you play, and we got punked. And we stayed punked into the next season.

2021-22 Suns

• +8.5 net rating (3rd on offense, 3rd on defense), 1st in the NBA

• 64-18 (best record in team history)

• Lost the semifinals in a memorable, heartbreaking way to the Luka Mavs

2022-23 Suns through January 10th

• +1.2 net rating (12th on offense, 12th on defense), 12th in the NBA

• 21-21 record

Through the first half of the season, the Suns just couldn’t get going for whatever reason.

Fast forward to now, I see the same thing in the Cleveland Cavaliers. This is Donovan Mitchell’s fourth season in the Rock n’ Roll Capital of the World, and it felt like 2024-25 was the year that they had been building towards. They had three all-stars, two all-NBA players, the coach of the year, and every podcaster’s heart.

Then this happened in the Eastern Conference semi-finals (all 8 minutes of this YouTube video are worth it):

Just like my birthday in 2022 for the Suns, this wasn’t literally the end of the playoffs for the Cavaliers, but in retrospect it seems to have been it for them.

Now, the Cavs are pretty injured this year, but look at the stark similarities with those Suns.

2024-25 Cavs

• +9.8 net rating (1st on offense, 8th on defense), 2nd in NBA

• 64-18 (2nd best record in team history after the 2008-09 LeBron Cavs)

• Lost the semifinals in a memorable, heartbreaking way to the Haliburton Pacers

2025-26 Cavs through January 9th

• +2.1 net rating (10th on offense, 12th on defense), 12th in the NBA

• 21-18 record

“But, Dallin! When the Big Four are on the court for the Cavs (in 114 mins this season), they have a +11.07 net rating! It’s a health thing!”

When the Suns had CP3, Booker, Mikal Bridges, and Cam Johnson on the floor in 2022-23 (in 161 minutes that season), they had a +21.99 net rating. Also, it was not in this Eastern Conference.

Well, the Suns would end up trading for Kevin Durant during this time of crisis.

A little aside, but back when the Timberwolves were eliminated by the Mavericks in their first visit to the conference finals, I wrote something comparing them to those same Suns after they got punked by the since-deceased Luka Mavs:

Ironically, they ended up making a seismic move like the Suns did in the form of the Towns for Randle/DiVincenzo trade, but it’s turned out much better for them than the Suns with Durant did. So, good for them.

The Cavaliers are on less of a logical time crunch, since none of their most important players are as old as Gobert was a year and a half ago (and for the Suns in 2021-22, Chris Paul was like 47 years old by then). Only one player (Laker legend Larry Nance Jr.) on the 2025-26 Cavaliers is on the other side of 30, and he’s 14th in minutes played on the team this year.

Another analogous team (that I am admittedly less informed on) for these Cavaliers is probably the Boston Celtics in 2020-21. After making the bubble Eastern Conference finals, they lost in (at least according to my memory) pretty surprising fashion to that Miami Heat team. In 2020-21, they ended up trading an over-the-hill Kemba Walker and some other players for Al Horford, and then during the 2021-22 season they traded some role players for Derrick White (at an all-time retrospective bargain. Romeo Langford, Josh Richardson, Blake Wesley, and a 2028 first). They were more patient, but even they didn’t end up climbing that hill until they traded the rest of their fun once-young guys (e.g. Marcus Smart, TimeLord Williams, Grant Williams) for Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis.

Is Darius Garland better than Marcus Smart? Yes. Is Jarrett Allen more valuable than TimeLord and Grant Williams combined? Probably. But how long will the fans and the most important fan, Dan Gilbert want to wait?

Health matters and huge mid-season trades rarely move the needle for a contender (notable exceptions being the Rasheed Wallace trade in 2004 and the Marc Gasol trade in 2019). But also, teams whose best player is a small guard have a very hard time winning a championship. Teams that start another small guard next to their best player small guard? We all know the history.

I can make up some silly trade ideas, but the main message is this: don’t take the Suns’ route. Be patient. It will be harder than it was in 2023 because of the second apron anyways, but take the Celtics route of careful iterative moves around Mitchell and Mobley, not one big swing.

It’s not much, but it’s honest work.

With Jarrett Allen’s current extension poised to kick in next season, they are already about $17m over the second apron. And that is with Dean Wade’s expiring deal.

So the Cavs don’t get a ton for Allen other than a late first for this upcoming draft and a combo big who can play next to center-of-the-future Evan Mobley, and be the main backup as well.

Then, in the offseason other players can be looked at, as Garland’s value is probably at its lowest it’ll be for a while.