that's d-squared with a hyphen, dammit.
 
Like Brad Delong's site, but with more liberal use of the F-word and less about the New York Times.
Call it what it is It is understandable that the Federal Reserve and FDIC are reluctant to use the “b-word” to describe the operations announced at the weekend to respond to the crises at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York . As bailouts go, they don’t look particularly expensive. The FDIC has extended its guarantee to cover uninsured deposits at these two banks (which won’t cost…
Simply because it's the right thing to do I find myself pondering the vast contorted pile of twisted knickers that have been piled up all over my media consumption over the last two days about the behaviour of protestors outside the Conservative conference. And I find myself with one overpowering thought: Someone is going to get killed if this sort of thing carries on I've never been a fan of…
One door closes, another one slams in your face Welcome new readers, also welcome old readers. Up until now this has mainly been a politics and economics blog. From now on in, it will also be a travel blog. There may even be pictures! But perhaps not. In the meantime, the fact that I am no longer conflicted out because of my day job means I can do a few more things about newsworthy issues of the…
Secular stagnation and such ... I put this in the comments on Brad's site I think the problem here is more of this gross substitutability stuff and marginal thinking that I am always going on about. The idea that people seem to be stuck with is that an increased weighting to equities and high-yield debt in some portfolios is an "increase in risk" and that this in some way increases the danger of…
A minor squib about Ukraine Hmmm... A few weeks ago : Europe and Russia were politicking over whether Ukraine should be considered to be Finlandized to the EU sphere of influence or to the Russian sphere of influence. Now : Basically the same diplomatic and grand political struggle, over Eastern Ukraine. Remind me again who looks weak and silly and has been humiliated? It looks to me as if, in…
An absurdly simplistic point about High Frequency Trading This seems like such an obvious point that it surprises me I haven't seen it being made over and over again, presumably in industry publicity material. The central anecdote of Michael Lewis's book (and a story that very often forms the centrepiece of an article about high frequency trading), goes as follows: "Before RBC acquired this…
If you want to send a message, use Western Ukraine My analysis of WTFF is going on in Ukraine at the moment, and why everything is so god damned chaotic. My basic game theoretic analysis comes from a game which we used to call "What's the Time Mr Wolf", but has a bunch of other names. Basically, one kid stands facing the wall, and the rest of you creep closer and closer, with the tension rising,…
Philosophies of economic policymaking - a comment which growed Think I kind of disagree with this victory lap on the part of Paul Krugman over the legacy of Milton Friedman. Friedman himself is a bit absent, but sometimes people disappear simply because their victory has been so total that it's not necessary to argue for it any more. And although k% M2 has turned out to be an embarrassing relic,…
Banknote trivia ... Although it was a silly mistake on the part of the Bank of England[1] to phase out the Elizabeth Fry notes before bringing the Jane Austen ones in, and having an all-male series of notes isn't on, I think that the people behind this campaign are being a little bit precious in getting offended at the fact that a lot of people on Twitter (including me, although I'm not listed…
What a way to earn a living, part etc I'm thinking of starting a series of these, like that awful "Markets in everything" one. This week ... it is bad enough to be forced to administering a state-mandated exam to five year olds, which consists of asking them to point at a picture of a carrot. But, reading carefully ... The new tests would be subject to external supervision: outside examiners would…
Mistakes we knew we were making ... "When you ask them about the bloodshed, they tell you that you can't make an omelet without breaking eggs. When you ask where's the omelet, they tell you Rome wasn't built in a day" - George Orwell, possibly apocryphally. I am not sure that I would have chosen the job of "Professional Apologist For Extremely Problematic People And Organisations" on the graduate…
Sympathy for the Dijsselbloem At some point, and the one-month anniversary of the fabled interview seems as good as any, I think we have to start taking seriously the possibility that the reason why we haven't had a generalized bank run in Europe is that we're not gonna to have one. And as I said at the time , if there isn't a massive bank run, then this idiot scheme starts to look a bit more like…
Upside down CDOs and leverage ratios I thought I might as well expand on the tweet quoted here , as rather too many people seemed to have jumped on the bandwagon of assuming that anything "risk weighted" is in some way suspect and probably manipulated, while "straight"[1] leverage is honest, simple, probably speaks with a Northern accent, et cetera. Not so many people realize that under the Basel…
From my email outbox, on UK libel laws ... It's also worth adding that [Simon, in an article] Singh is quite inaccurate in his discussion of the UK libel laws. The points he makes are: 1. "Defendants are guilty until proved innocent, a reversal of normal practice" This isn't a reversal of normal practice; even (informed) libel reform campaigners recognise that this is more or less intrinsic to the…
From my email outbox, on the importance of independence for left opposition [this was sent during debates over US healthcare reform - "Dennis" is of course Dennis Kucinich, "Jane" is Jane Hamsher of Firedoglake] The logic is only difficult if you assume that it always makes sense to give up in an ultimatum game, always makes sense to blink in a chicken-game and that the outcome of a voting process…
From my email outbox, on behavioural economics ... sadly, behavioural economics is really really plagued with the same sort of pathological incentives as "Freakonomics", because like quirky-dataset regressions, it really lends itself to small-topic research of the sort that will get your PhD completed on schedule and/or produce a stream of publishable[1] papers to demonstrate one's value to a…
The "ist" in "economist" resembles "Trotskyist", not "biologist" From the Department of "Yeah, but really"... Realistically, the students who are struggling to pass third year economics courses are never going to be policy analysts or economic journalists. So what am I teaching them that would help them in the job market? All sorts of useful things! Things like "unions are bad and self-serving"!…
The fragility of antifragility Just reading through "Antifragile" now, and with rue my heart is laden at the mathematical and technical annexes. It's a very similar sensation to the one I get when reading something in Welsh - I recognise this, it's a language I used to speak, but although I can pick up the general sense and even understand bits and pieces, the nuance and the ease is all gone. And…
Transitivity Regarding this case , and a few others like it, where the freedom-of-speech-absolutist view that "nobody should ever be put in jail just for hurting someone's feelings/making a joke, per se", I find myself wanting to make the following argument: 1. If the family of the murdered child concerned ever got hold of the person who wrote those things on the internet, they would be within…
From my email outbox, once more This time, on the subject of online discussion of Israel/Palestine, and the alleged excessive, obsessive concern .... "The thing is, how many well-educated middle class English speakers are active in the American and European press who are prepared to defend the Chechen occupation? One side causes the other. Here's a thought experiment. Pretend that I only care…
On Julian Assange Is nobody at all going to notice, in any context at all, that disputed-consent acquaintance rape cases have an very, very low conviction rate no matter what else, that nobody has ever found a way to alter this fact, and that therefore the odds are astonishingly high that everyone involved in this shit-show is wasting their time? I mean, everyone involved on both sides of the…
Booking now - speaker tours for books that have not been written yet " Cake " by Malcolm Gladwell This is a book about having your cake, and the power and complexity of having your cake. We've always been taught that cake is for eating. "Eat your cake!", our mothers said to us, pushing slices of delicious Victoria Sponge down our throats. But counterintuitively, that might not be true. Actually,…
Also from my email outbox ... "As far as active investment goes, I always put it this way - are you prepared to put as much time and effort into managing your investments as you would into running a small business? If you are then go for it - playing the market is not a bad hobby, about as interesting as birdwatching or something. And most people on this list actually do have enough intelligence…
From my email outbox, an occasional series ... "Blaming the markets for why the USA has so many financial crises is like blaming the arms manufacturers for why the USA has so many wars - they're certainly involved, and they're certainly guilty of some very bad practices, but if that's where your analysis starts and stops then I'd say you're missing the big picture."
I say "cultural criticism", you say "trolling beer nerds", the truth's probably somewhere in between I like this comment a little too much to let it languish at the bottom of Phil's blog, at the bottom of a debate about "craft beer" and (once more) the general project of paying four quid for a half pint. The context is branding, the goods and evils of, and in particular the pub chain "Brewdog",…