Crypto Super Hub — Weekly Market Intelligence | 14 June 2026
The biggest IPO in history happened this week, and I didn’t buy a single share.
SpaceX went public on Friday. Not just a rocket company. This is the business behind Starlink’s global internet network, the launch provider the rest of the industry depends on, and an AI arm folded in through the xAI merger. The stock opened, ripped, and by the close the company was worth $2.11 trillion. To put that in plain terms: one company is now worth more than every Bitcoin in existence, and very nearly as much as every cryptocurrency on earth combined. Elon Musk became the first person in history worth more than a trillion dollars, on paper, in a single afternoon.
My phone lit up. Customers at work asking how to get in. Mates who’ve never bought a stock suddenly wanting a piece. And every time the whole room leans one way like that, I’ve trained myself to ask the same two questions. Where’s my edge here? And where’s everyone else’s?
I don’t have one in SpaceX. Neither, if we’re honest, do you. So I did the boring thing instead and bought more Bitcoin.
The CSH Score bottomed at 16.6 last weekend, the cheapest Bitcoin has read on risk since November 2022. It’s since ticked up to 18.8 as price bounced off $60K back toward $63.8K. Either way, we’re in the bottom few percent of nearly fifteen years of daily readings, and we just dipped under February’s panic low of 18.9.
The more useful lens this week isn’t the number, it’s the calendar. Bitcoin is doing in 2026 what it tends to do in US midterm years: sell off hard and carve out a major low somewhere around the middle of the year. It happened in 2018 and again in 2022. Worth being honest about how those played out, though. In both cases the mid-year low was not the final low. 2018 bottomed properly in December, six months later and far lower. 2022 bottomed in November at $15,781. So a low forming now fits the pattern, but it doesn’t mean the low is in.
Here’s why that distinction matters less than it looks. If you’re trying to pick the exact bottom, you’re playing a game almost nobody wins, this week or any week. If you’re running the CSH Score and a Plan Builder strategy, you’re not picking a day. From the bottom of the risk range, you’re accumulating into weakness on a schedule and letting the system size the entries. Whether the floor is $60K now or something lower in Q3 or Q4, the playbook from a reading this low is the same: this is the part of the cycle you DCA through, not the part you sit out waiting for a signal that only ever looks obvious in hindsight.
Bitcoin’s also sitting almost exactly on its 200-week moving average near $62,000, the line that has floored every prior cycle. It doesn’t have to hold. But on risk, on where price sits against its own long-term trend, this is deep value, and the system is flashing greener than it did in February.
Back to SpaceX, because the real lesson of the week has nothing to do with rockets.
Three reasons I sat it out.
Start with the maths. SpaceX priced at a $1.77 trillion valuation on about $18.7 billion of revenue. Meta earns more than ten times that revenue and is valued below where SpaceX opened. At that price you’re not buying a business, you’re buying a story about the next twenty years, and you’re buying it at the most expensive, most hyped moment in the company’s life, from the people who got in early and are finally taking their exit. If you’re retail buying the open, you’re the liquidity they’re selling into. Musk himself is locked up and can’t sell for over a year. Worth sitting with, that one.
Then there’s the edge, or my lack of one. The engineers and funds who held SpaceX equity for a decade had an edge, and they’ve been paid for it. The person buying on day one off the back of a headline has none. One of the most expensive lessons crypto ever taught me was the difference between a good company and a good investment, and how to spot when I’m the sucker at the table. In 2021 I bought tokens I didn’t understand because everyone around me was up 300%. I know exactly what that feeling costs, because I’ve paid it.
The last reason is the one I actually like. While every eyeball on earth is pointed at a rocket company and the word “trillionaire,” almost nobody is talking about Bitcoin. It’s been left for dead again. The calls at work went quiet at $60K, same as they did in February. That’s precisely the setup I want. You don’t get to accumulate the premier digital asset at the bottom 2% of its risk range while the room is excited about it. You get to do it while the room has wandered off to look at something shinier.
Edge is knowing which game is yours. Mine isn’t a trillion-dollar IPO I’d be buying on vibes. Mine is a fifteen-year risk model that is, right now, about as loud as it gets.
Want to see where the CSH Score sits right now?
We shipped this week, market chaos and all. The all-time chart now renders Bitcoin on a proper logarithmic scale, so the early years are actually readable instead of a flat line hugging zero. We also squashed a bug in the price-label toggles. Small stuff, but it’s the difference between a tool you trust and one you fight.
Two of us build CSH on nights and weekends, and one of us writes the code. Neither of us could move at this pace without AI handling the parts that used to eat days. The point was never to outsource the thinking, it was to clear the boring work out of the way so the thinking is all that’s left. A bigger overhaul of the dashboard and the plans section is coming. It’s going to look the part.
SpaceX cracked $2 trillion intraday. At its session high the company touched roughly $2.21 trillion, brushing right up against the entire crypto market’s $2.26 trillion. One company, nearly all of crypto.
Bitcoin had its worst week since February. The driver wasn’t a hack or a ban, it was the spot ETFs running a sustained run of outflows. The flows that powered the rally up are now pulling the other way, and they tend to stabilise before price does.
The score dipped under its February low. 16.6 last weekend against 18.9 in February. Cheaper on risk than the drop that scared everyone three months ago, with far fewer people paying attention this time.
Watch ETF flows above everything else. A few days of net inflows would be the first real sign the selling has worn itself out.
Keep an eye on whether $62K holds. That’s the 200-week moving average, the line that’s floored every past cycle. A weekly close below it would be worth respecting. Holding it would be the system’s read confirmed by the chart.
And watch the noise. As long as the headlines are about rockets and trillionaires instead of Bitcoin, the accumulation window stays open.
The biggest IPO in history was the easiest no I’ve made all year. Not because SpaceX is a bad company, but because it wasn’t my game, and I’ve paid enough tuition to know the difference now.
The score is at the bottom of its fifteen-year range and the room has looked away. I know which of those two facts matters to me.
Buy where you have an edge. For me, this week, that was clear.
Create your free CSH account and see the score for yourself at cryptosuperhub.com.au.
— Jake
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