Prediction market participants have sharply lowered their bets on the passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act by the end of 2026, with odds dropping to a record low of 32% as of July 17. The move reflects mounting uncertainty in Senate negotiations over ethics provisions that Democrats insist are necessary for their support of the landmark crypto market structure legislation.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, also known as the CLARITY Act, would draw clearer lines between securities-like tokens regulated by the SEC and digital commodities primarily overseen by the CFTC. It passed the House one year ago and cleared the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees with backing from two Democrats. However, full Senate approval hinges on resolving partisan differences, particularly around ethics rules for public officials involved in crypto.
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