TSMC Advanced Packaging: Latest Insights

Recently, TSMC’s(TSM 0.00%↑) Vice President of Advanced Packaging Technology and Service, He Jun, delivered a speech at the OCP APAC Summit, disclosing TSMC’s latest progress in advanced packaging technology as well as its future plans. Unlike the past two years, when external attention was mainly focused on CoWoS capacity expansion, the information released by He Jun this time is actually richer. Below is a summary of the core content of He Jun’s speech based on our understanding:

• Already “very close” to meeting CoWoS demand, but not yet fully achieved

• Currently operates 10 advanced packaging factories

• CoWoS capacity has doubled every year for the past three years

• 5.5× reticle-size CoWoS has entered mass production, with yields exceeding 98% in multiple AI customer products

• 14× reticle-size CoWoS is scheduled to arrive in 2029

• TSMC plans to introduce new technologies every year

• Last year, SoIC with 6-micron hybrid bonding pitch entered mass production; by 2029 it will shrink to 4.5 microns for A14 chip stacking. SoIC can deliver 50× interconnect density and 5× energy efficiency

• Once reticle size exceeds 3×, the quality of all components must reach automotive-grade standards to maintain a low failure rate

• Bottleneck: In the coming years, ABF substrate shortages will rank second only to memory. Companies are currently sourcing substrates from multiple suppliers to meet demand, and differences in thermal and mechanical performance among substrates pose a problem

• Improving yield through Chiplet “Smart Matchmaking”: by matching chips with performance-consistent counterparts, chips that might otherwise have been scrapped can be recovered

• Interposer: evolving from a simple connection layer to one that integrates voltage regulators, capacitors, and silicon photonic devices

• Shift to parallel development: customer chips can enter the fab before testing is completed; suppliers must set up R&D teams near TSMC fabs to enable real-time fixes during mass production

• Early release of system specifications: TSMC will publish system specifications six quarters before mass production so that customers and suppliers can align on thermal, mechanical, and power requirements (STCO)

Next, we will break down and analyze what we believe are the underlying implications of this speech. It is worth noting that this analysis is for reference only and we welcome corrections.