Is it all over?

Michael Howell — Capital Wars, one of our data providers has mentioned numerous times since the middle of the year — “its getting long in the tooth” — a video about the cycle can be found here.

It’s not hard to disagree with him in many respects, but from a refinancing perspective, it’s very hard to agree with him, for context the US alone needs to refinance 10T$ of debt, to do this they need an environment where they can achieve this, considering the Business Cycle is downstream of the Liquidity Cycle and Liquidity has been starved, one needs to ask how the US achieves this, i.e without having a catastrophe due to lack of liquidity to roll into.

In the above chart you can see clearly when there’s a lack of liquidity then you have refinancing tensions, as it stands based on his forward estimates we will breach the buffer zone and have a catastrophe, but you have to ask yourself how that is possible today, Governments are fully aware, debasing = alleviates catastrophes and if the US were to have one now it would wipe out the collateral base underwriting its entire economy and wealth — at a time of demographics issues, debt issues, essentially cascaded implosion, not 08 but worse, one they couldn’t come back from, i.e hegemonic risk.

Naturally when you observe Global Liquidity (Central Bank input).

The 6-m Flow clearly shows the World, and specifically the US seem to be anti-liquidity, i.e we’ve come only 1 and retraced since in the year 2025.

I.e specifically the US side, we’ve spent pretty much most of 2025 in a liquidity rut, with a mere period early into the year above.

Globally even though there’s been growth, we are still under performing in November the average by quite a wide margin.

Whilst momentum continues to hover in the 10-40% range.

Whilst Trump claims there’s investments into the US, whereas actually the flow of funds out of the US is roughly on-par with the UK, which has been a cluster fuck of a economy itself.

Hence from a investment (risk) perspective it’s been pretty much neutral the entire year with some volatility up and down.

The key naturally to a risk on period is ‘liquidity & business cycle growth’, as mentioned — long in the tooth liquidity cycle, but actually we’ve only around the 0 region even with growth compared to historical, we also know there isn’t enough liquidity to roll the debt, and certainly the business cycle regardless of the admin claims is in the bin — '“its so good they won’t even release economic data”.

I spent some time looking over some experimental charts i was working on previously.

At first i came across the following (eye-balling it) - Blended Liquidity Index (i.e Fast, Slow = Impact).

Then i worked on re-compiling that with additional indicators.

Realizing BTC had been financial repressed between 2022 and 2024 — even though the price rose, BTC has recently come above that and re-testing.

Clearly shown here:

Likewise i compared this to gold, which we know underperformed debasement roughly by 2.3% per annum.

That’s finally broken above.

This gave me some confidence, they were unable to keep BTC (ball) underwater…

Now as for the future, i think BTC is above Fast/Slow/Blended debasement and testing it, Gold has finally broken above and retesting… we’re in a new dawn of fiscal dominance, where they have no choice but to debase to refinance (they never repay their debt)

So the liquidity for the past few years — tempo has been too slow, so we’re reliant on hypothecation, bank lending and various other methods, as the Trump admin do not wish to grow the central bank balance sheet like before (foolish) but issue (posed) 6 Trillion $ via banking system, 2 Trillion $ via stablecoins, and the other 2 Trillion $ via other methods, it appears to me this will cause constrained liquidity where the real economy is competing with the Government for liquidity, but it is what it is…

Either-way this is the period to be cautiously optimistic, i.e Global Liquidity is still rising but momentum is fading.

Historically (average 100 days stating at 100 for each asset post Global Liquidity Declining) we have the following % loss in BTC/Altcoins

At the same time we know QT is going to be curtailed, therefore we should have a bull run in Altcoins.

The Business Cycle being reset (2+yrs pretty much recessionary) is setting 2026 up for a explosive year..

Copper (good for Altcoins) — setting up for a explosive outbreak.

Additional commentary…

Lack of US Economic Data continues.

Trump admin David Sacks admitting the US is screwed unless they continue…