Oli, The Hall, and Roster 3.0

There’s a part of me that hates when spring training is. It comes right as tax season gets underway, leaving me less time to focus on what is going on and for me to find the time to write about it. The days are longer and this old man can’t stay up as late as he used to.

It’s also Lent, and for the past 10 Lents, I’ve been writing regular devotions for my Star Wars Devotionals site. So that writing, which I enjoy and is hopefully valuable to others, comes first. Add into that my occasional paid devotional writing and finding the time to write about things is difficult.

However, my afternoon is free (and, since we’re in the midst of a week-long blackout of Cardinals games, that won’t be a distraction) and there’s been some news, so let’s chat about some things, shall we?

The Cardinals announced this morning that they had come to terms with Oli Marmol on a two-year extension. As you probably know, Marmol was heading into the end of his contract and past Cardinal policy has been to not let their manager be forced to deal with lame duck status. With all the changes that have been made in policy makers lately, it was unclear if that was still the case.

Yet the more things change, the more they stay the same. Oli got the job when Mike Shildt left after the 2021 season in the famous “philosophical differences” battle. (Granted, we heard some personality issues when Shildt left San Diego, but you wonder if he was ringing the development alarm bell at a time when the front office didn’t want to hear it. I’m sure Bernie Miklasz has written/videoed about it, so I’ll need to hunt that up, but it seems like that was at least a speculated reason.) Oli was given a three year contract at that time, which would have taken him through the 2024 season, but on March 15 of that year, he was given a two year extension that covered 2025 and 2026. Now, going into that last year, he’s getting a two year deal on March 1 that will cover 2027 and 2028.

Adding on to Marmol’s contract was truly a no-brainer. Scott Plaza and I actually tackled that issue a bit on Friday’s Meet Me at Musial, expressing surprise that the deal hadn’t already been done. (Appreciate Chaim Bloom being a listener, I guess!) Honestly, no matter who the Cardinals manager was, the only way you’d get fired the next couple of years was if you weren’t on the same page with the front office on how to develop and use players (or off the field stuff, but we’ll grant that caveat and move on). It’s not going to be based on wins-and-losses, decisions made during the games. They aren’t worried about tactics, they are worried about growth.

Which is right in Marmol’s wheelhouse. He spent six years in the minors after his playing days, five years managing. He was known throughout the system as a development guy, one of the new school that took some metrics and analytics and knew what to do with them. Putting him in charge of a team that is going to be growing and learning is absolutely the right move. A man who knows the Cardinal Way but also understands how it can be adapted to help this new group of players. It’s a situation that is so right for him that I’m really surprised they didn’t give him a longer deal, though the contract does have a team option for 2029, so there’s a good chance he’ll be here that long.

In my mind, Marmol has done a fine job as manager. I continue to think that if Ryan Helsley’s fingers were fine in 2022, that team might have made a run. They’d have at least gotten out of the first round, I feel confident on that. The bottom did fall out the last three years (though even with a similar team around him all three years, he managed a plus-.500 record in the middle of it) but that was systemic, as we know. It’s hard to see how any other manager could have gotten more out of the team. His bullpen decisions have usually been solid, he’s got less of a “his guys” mentality than some former managers. He’s done a fine job and I’m good with him returning.

The truth of it is, and this is no revelation of course, but the era of the manager being the focus of the team is gone. There are no more Tony LaRussas, no Tommy LaSordas or Jim Leylands. There are some managers more famous than others—Dave Roberts, Craig Counsell—but even then they aren’t the reason their team wins. Counsell left Milwaukee and they got better, going by wins and losses, and Counsell’s replacement Pat Murphy has won the Manager of the Year title both years.

Baseball decision making has merged the front office and the managerial seat in a way that wasn’t there even 15 years ago when TLR was winding down in St. Louis. (How is that Game 6 turns 15 this fall? It’s outrageous is what it is.) The person that has the manager title really doesn’t matter a whole lot because it’s a philosophy that runs from the top through the clubhouse. The best teams are going to get someone that understands that philosophy and can enhance it. Look at the current managers and hardly anyone stands out. The Giants went and got someone from the college ranks and it may very well work out. (Man, those AZ/SF games where Torey Lovullo and Tony Vitello face off will be fun for the announcers.) Walt Weiss failed in Colorado but gets a chance with a much better Braves team in part because he’s been a part of their system.

I’m not saying baseball managers don’t matter, because I think the idea that the game is being run from the POBO’s office is overblown. It’s possible that a manager could make the difference in 2-3 games, give or take, and that could be the difference between October playing baseball or October playing golf. Right now, for this team, Oli Marmol makes the most sense. It’s possible he will when the team is ready to contend as well, but we’ll figure that out when we come to it.

Marmol currently sits 12th on the all time Cardinals managerial win list, though his career record is just two games over .500. That being said, the two right ahead of him on the list were sub-.500 Cardinal managers and they are both in the Hall of Fame. The Yankees did all right for Joe Torre and Miller Huggins, didn’t they? In fact, of the 11 names ahead of Marmol, only two (Eddie Dyer at 9 and Mike Matheny at 5) aren’t Hall of Famers.

Marmol will pass Huggins in April or early May (13 behind) and Torre soon after (26 behind). Next year he’ll probably get to seventh, passing Dyer, Branch Rickey, and Frankie Frisch. Assuming 150 wins over 2026 and 2027 (which, given the CBA/lockout possibilities, might not be doable), that’ll put him at 475 wins. A full 2028, especially with a team that should be starting to come into its own, might get him past Charlie Comiskey and in sight of Matheny. The ifs start piling up here so we’ll stop, but it’s very likely Marmol is only topped by very few when it comes to managerial wins whenever he is done.

The Cardinals announced their ballot for the 2026 class of the team’s Hall of Fame this weekend. Four players—holdovers Brian Jordan and George Hendrick, plus a couple of fairly known newcomers—will be eligible to be selected by fans, with voting to run until April 17. Is there any drama, any real debate here? Do we really have to pick between Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina? Will really only one of these absolute legends get in?

Short answer: No. Long answer: Definitely no.

Exhibit A in this case is the press release relating to the announcement of the ballot. I’ve been fortunate enough to be on the Cards’ PR distribution list for a while now and things that are regular events tend to have the same sort of boilerplate language. Names and dates change, maybe a different quote, but it’s roughly the same to year to year.

For instance, this is the opening of the 2025 press release:

And this is the opening of this year’s release:

Notice some differences? In 2025, the Cards made a point of saying that one player would be chosen from the ballot, then one by the Red Ribbon Committee (still campaigning for the Cards to add me to that, maybe next year when the blogging career turns 20), and one by the owners. In 2026, none of that is in there. No hard limit on players from the ballot, no suggestion of how the class is going to be made up.

There’s a non-zero chance that the entire class is going to be Albert and Yadi. It would be incredible if they bent the rules and added Adam Wainwright into the mix. On the one hand, it would be incredible and fitting and it would also free up the 2027 ballot to be actually competitive. On the other hand, they might like the buzz having Waino on the ballot next year would bring.

If you had to choose between Albert and Yadi, I think you have to go with Yadi since he played his whole career in St. Louis and was such a huge influence on the organization. Pujols is Pujols, of course, and he’s got the better Cooperstown case (though both should be there as well, perhaps going in together!) but the extra years of Molina has to be the tiebreaker.

I like to track the HOF and wrote about some of the ballot quirks a few years ago. To update, if Pujols and Molina get in this season, that means that 12 of the 26 people elected by the fans will have gotten in their first time on the ballot, a number that will probably increase assuming Wainwright is on next year’s ballot and Matt Carpenter is on the one after. Of course, that includes David Freese, who was elected but then declined the honor.

It was interesting that Steve Carlton came off the list this year. It’s the third time he’s missed time, originally going on in 2015, returning in 2017, then back in 2020 through last year. He’s the person that’s been on the ballot the longest that hasn’t gotten in now that Matt Morris (nine tries) and Edgar Renteria (10) have broken through.

I would love to see how the ballot gets made up and decided on. Lee Smith was on there three out of four years but hasn’t been since 2021. Joaquin Andujar only has one appearance, in 2023. Those two, Carlton, and the holdovers this year are the only players that have shown up on a ballot but never been elected.

The Cardinals Hall of Fame is a fun thing to talk about. I’ve been through it once (and I actually went through it before it was a thing, as they had a display down at the Clinton Library a year or so before they opened the Hall) and I should visit again. I am sure induction weekend will be a lot of fun (and the most attended few days of the summer) and that both Albert and Yadi will be making speeches.

It’s been a couple of weeks since we looked at the roster. Not much has changed, but it’s worth taking another look. Let’s see if we can do it in a few less words as well, though that’s never been my strong suit.

Catchers (3): Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages, Yohel Pozo

Herrera has gotten behind the plate without incident, putting him on track to start at catcher more often and earlier than expected. We’re listing Pozo here but he might see more time as a backup first baseman, honestly.

Infield (5): Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, Ramon Urias, JJ Wetherholt, Masyn Winn

Outfield (3): Nathan Church, Victor Scott II, Jordan Walker

Utility (2): Jose Fermin, Thomas Saggese

The signing of Urias has changed the picture a little bit. We’re hearing more and more about Fermin and Saggese playing the outfield as well as backing up the infield, to the point I listed them as utility because I wasn’t sure the most fitting area for them to be listed.

Urias was an interesting signing and one that seems to be a warning shot to Nolan Gorman. Gorman will still get the bulk of the playing time, but will it be as a regular starter with Urias popping in occasionally, or as the heavy part of the platoon where he basically never sees a lefty? Gorman has hit righties and lefties about the same in his career, though neither of the numbers are good. I could imagine that he’d get the right-handers, Urias mainly gets the lefties. It won’t be exclusive or anything, but I expect that’s their thinking if they got an infielder for the bat instead of an outfielder as expected.

That outfield is going to be a thing, isn’t it?

Starting Pitchers (5): Kyle Leahy, Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante

I don’t think that this is settled by any means. We’ve seen good velocity out of Richard Fitts in his limited time this summer and, besides, any pitcher that wishes he had Yoda as his Pitchcom voice is a guy I’m going to advocate for. It feels like he’d be the only guy that could muscle his way into this, though. There’s not been a lot of different folks starting games so far this spring.

Relief Pitchers (8): Ryan Fernandez, Gordon Graceffo, Packy Naughton, Matthew Pushard, JoJo Romero, George Soriano, Ryne Stanek, Matt Svanson

A lot of fluctuation going to be going on here, I would think. It might be telling that Naughton has thrown in three games already this spring, tied with a number of others for the most in camp. Naughton’s also thrown three scoreless innings with four strikeouts. Given his track record, it feels like he’s likely to get the nod even if they have to add him to the 40-man roster. It’s not an insurmountable hurdle.

I’m still thinking Soriano gets a longer look than just a few spring weeks. I do think, though, that Justin Bruihl might get let go and Graceffo might get a look, especially since he has two option years left and there’s not much flexibility with this group.

Random and assorted:

—I’m about 50 pages in on the Prospect Guide put out by Brian Walton and Kyle Reis from The Cardinal Nation. Brian and I talked about it some during his appearance on Musial and it’s definitely been informative and I’m just now getting to the prospect writeups! If you have the extra cash, get yourself a copy of this. I’ve enjoyed the physical version but the PDF is cheaper!

—Stepped out of my comfort zone and led the singing today at church. If you want to see what that looks like, here you go.

—Hard to believe we have made it to March. Yesterday I was finally able to get most everything Christmas into our home shed. That’s better than last year, when the yard items actually just stayed outside around the shed. I can’t get anything out of there, mind you, but it’s covered!

—It is a little sad that there’s a whole week without televised Cardinal baseball. Not that I get to watch much in the middle of the day this time of year anyway, but having it on Saturday and Sunday would be nice. I get the Cards cut back, especially since they didn’t know until recently how this broadcast season was going to go, but I am a little surprised we’ve not been able to see opponent broadcasts in this span.

—Gateway to Baseball Heaven tonight, where we’ll talk about Marmol more I’m sure. Next week’s guest on Musial is fellow Substacker Dayn Perry, which is always a treat.