Danger Questions

“Is it more dangerous for the plane while taking off or landing?”

That post on Quora hit my news feed yesterday. Some answered takeoff, and some answered landing. They are both wrong. Answering the question as it is framed—“which is more dangerous”—confirms that both are dangerous.

It is a loaded question similar to “Did you stop beating your wife?” Answering either yes or no confirms that beating has taken place. The loading of the question could be dealt with by answering, “I have never beaten my wife.”

The correct answer is, “Neither takeoff nor landing is dangerous.”

“Has turbulence gotten more dangerous?”

A similar question is being asked about turbulence. Answering yes or no reinforces the idea that turbulence is dangerous.

Passengers who don’t wear a seat belt rarely get hurt.

Passengers who wear a seat belt never get hurt.

The correct answer is, “Turbulence is not dangerous.”

“What is the most dangerous thing about flying?”

If you argue that planes do sometimes crash, that is true. To answer the question accurately, we need to consider this: are we considering absolute safety or relative safety.

Absolute Safety. Absolute safety does not exist. Nothing is absolutely safe. Eating is not safe. Consider lettuce. Breathing is not safe. Consider COVID. Sleeping is not safe. Consider fires, home invaders, and murderous spouses.

Relative Safety. Relative safety is what safety is all about. Of all the things you could be doing now, flying is the safest or one of the safest. When you stop doing your daily routine and get on a plane, you have made yourself safer. You are safer on the plane than in your home. You are safer on the plane than in your car. You might say you are safer driving because you are a good driver. But you are safer in an airliner than in your car even if your car is sitting still. You are safer on the plane than in church. No need to pray on the plane; pray for your safety in church. You are safer on a plane than sleeping in your bed at night.

Arnold Barnett, professor of statistics at MIT, says airline safety has doubled every ten years since jets came into use. Flying has become so safe that, for practical purposes, he says we should think of it as absolutely safe.

He adds, however, that if a person must conceptualize the risk of flying, it is the same as the risk of being killed when shopping, not by any cause, but by only one specific cause: ceiling collapse. That’s something you don’t spend much time worrying about. The media doesn’t do number on us about that. But it happened in 1990 in New York City.

The problem is not being safe. The problem is feeling safe. If flying feels unsafe, it is because bad things have happened when you were not in control or able to escape.

Of the places you could be right now, no place are you more protected.

The correct answer is, “Nothing about flying is dangerous.”