OBBB Is a Gut Punch, But Not a Knockout for Climate Tech

At our AGM at the beginning of May, we confronted the economic uncertainty and climate headwinds head-on. Some of our key takeaways included:

📉 Policy uncertainty is driving investment paralysis, and proposed tariffs are unlikely to bring manufacturing back onshore anytime soon.

⚖️ Watch the legal challenges to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—a ruling against it could disrupt the use of reciprocal tariffs and require significant policy revisions.

⚡Energy supply is a major bottleneck for AI-driven load growth, and solving it will require an all-of-the-above approach, including flexible load strategies.

💸 Electricity prices are rising as new energy generation projects cost ~$95/MWh. Consumers, especially those near data centers, may see this reflected in their bills.

🌪️ Climate risk concentration makes insurance innovation challenging in high-risk regions. Our research highlights the need for infrastructure hardening and stronger community engagement to enable better climate risk underwriting.

Back in May, tariffs were the focal point of Trump’s agenda, but energy policy was largely uncertain. Questions loomed around potential threats to former President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the largest investment in the U.S. clean energy industry to date.

We finally have our answer.

OBBB Is a Gut Punch, But Not a Knockout for Climate Tech

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB), recently signed into law by President Trump, delivers a sharp political blow to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the clean energy sector. It rolls back many of the tax credits and consumer incentives that had supercharged the energy transition, including cuts to residential electrification, EV credits, and the solar and wind tax credits.

The consequences are significant. The Princeton REPEAT Project estimates OBBB will increase U.S. carbon emissions by 190 million metric tons annually by 2030, or the equivalent to 41 million passenger vehicles. Meanwhile, a report from Energy Innovation projects that household energy bills would more than double in some states by 2030. Solar, wind, and clean tech manufacturing will face compressed timelines, higher costs, and reduced certainty.

But this isn’t the end of the clean energy transition.

OBBB is a setback to the broader climate space, but it reinforces Buoyant’s thesis and the value of asset-light, politically resilient, durable solutions. At Buoyant, we’re not slowing down. We’re backing the founders building that future.

Read the full breakdown on The Lighthouse here.

Portfolio Company Spotlight: HData

This week, HData announced the acquisition of Insight Engine. This creates the most comprehensive source for regulatory intelligence in the energy industry: state utility commissions, federal energy agencies, regional transmission organizations, and internal archives. Through this acquisition, HData gains a complementary customer base and a team of energy regulation experts.

HData has seen some staggering growth this year, both with respect to customers and product, and this acquisition compounds it. Congrats to CEO, Hudson Hollister, and his leadership team for the vision and execution on this deal.

Read more on Latitude Media’s exclusive here.

Service Provider Spotlight

Big shoutout to Live Oak Bank, HData’s banking partner, for providing a venture debt line that’s helping accelerate HData’s mission to streamline regulatory data collection across all 50 U.S. states.

While Live Oak’s venture lending practice is still relatively new, they’ve shown they can move fast and offer highly competitive terms for small, venture-backed companies. We’ve been impressed with their flexibility, responsiveness, and commitment to understanding early-stage needs.

If you’re building in a capital-intensive category and need smart, founder-aligned debt, Live Oak is worth a look.

Portfolio Company Updates

• Check out the Beni app as they continue to release updates

• ElectroTempo recently added two deep subject matter experts in EV Charging installation to their team

• Co-investor Ansa Capital released a spotlight on Gravity CTO and co-founder, Ted Kornish

• Ocient appointed seasoned technology leader and proven growth executive John Morris as CEO, while Chris Gladwin stays on as Executive Chairman, more here

• Raptor Maps released their 2025 Global Solar Report, more here

• ReelData signed a multi-year contract with Laxey, the Icelandic land-based salmon farming company, more here

• Sunairio recently published a blog on how solar generation influenced recent record prices in PJM, more here

• Amy and Laura joined Audette at IMN ESG & Decarbonizing Real Estate summit in Dana Point, where Christopher and Pallen led thoughtful discussions throughout a panel and dinner

  

What we are reading…

• How Much Energy Does AI Use? The People Who Know Aren’t Saying, Wired

• Caught between a fossil fuel past and a green future, China’s coal miners chart an uncertain path, The Guardian

• Majority of world’s top data centre hubs face array of rising heat-related risks, Verisk Maplecroft

What we are listening to…

• Is Decarbonization Dead?, The Ezra Klein Show

• The Big Bill Got Done. Now What?, Political Climate

What we are watching…

• Stock indexes in Tokyo and Singapore after the Trump administration reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia. Keep an eye out for the European Union and South Korea next.