RSS Amplifier

British Alpha · Apr 28, 2026

Great British Stock Ideas! - Late April 2026

0
Sign in to vote or save

South Sea Investing · British Alpha

Thesis: “A £100 million market cap company with proprietary ammonia cracking technology capable of delivering hydrogen at £10 per kilogram — without government subsidies — in a market where the prevailing price is £30 to £60 per kilogram… Downside capped at 100%, upside of multiples on that if execution continues. You are still paying distressed prices for a company with credible technology, serious industrial partnerships, a clear commercial runway, and a management team that has now demonstrated it delivers on what it says it will deliver.”

Thesis: It “has carved out a distinct niche within the subsea [rental] market. Its model combines breadth of equipment, capital efficiency for customers, and a scalable acquisition strategy. That shows up in the numbers. Strong margins indicate pricing power. Sustained growth indicates demand. Together, they suggest durable earnings power. The question is not whether the business is good. It is for how long will the market continues to misprice it. Either a re-rating will occur, or else it would come as no surprise if Ashtead Technology becomes the subject of a takeover attempt.”

Thesis: “The largest subsea equipment rental platform… My thesis is that even if utilisation normalises from ~80% toward ~50–55%, structural shifts toward renting, framework agreements (≈50% of revenue), and modest MSD end-market growth should support LSD–MSD revenue growth and high-teens returns on capital, giving ~50% upside on a re-rating to ~15x normalised EBIT with limited downside because capex can be cut quickly in a downturn.”

Thesis: “specialises in subsea equipment rental and services. It provides the machinery and expertise required to drill for oil & gas, decommissioning and renewable energy generation offshore…. this is a company that is clearly in a very good position and, on balance, I think the runway for maintaining high ROIC and EPS growth is still plenty of years in front of us. I am more concerned about this runway than anything sector / geopolitical related.”

Thesis: Fast fashion e-retailer. “The firm has struggled with a stressed balance sheet, rising competition, and excessive inventory. Although there are signs that the company is approaching stability, the stock trades at just 3x projected FY28 adj. EBITDA. A multiple of 6x (well below historical norms) on this EBITDA implies a share price of about £8, about triple the current price of less than £3. Moreover, I think there is a good possibility that ASOS will eventually be acquired as both its first- and second-largest shareholders are apparel retailers.”

Thesis: “A small niche UK diagnostics supplier that makes sheep monoclonal antibodies for immunoassays… If they just keep to their niche there is still a lot of value to unlock. They benefit from a strong regulatory and scientific moat… If they suddenly start doing large M&E I would get worried tough. Conversely, with this valuation they would be an interesting target for private equity. In any case, the downside seems limited and the potential upside ranges from just tugging along to moving back to growth with the consequential rerating.”

Thanks for reading British Alpha! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Share

Thesis: A litigation financer. “A ~$1 billion market cap company sitting on $5.2 billion in estimated book value, with a core litigation finance business that has historically earned 1.5x–2.5x book multiples, in a post-event selloff driven by a binary case I’ve already written to zero. I don’t want to own the equity. But I’m very happy to own leveraged control over the stock via the options.”

Thesis: British agricultural holding company trading at just 0.4x book value with a “Value Enhancement Plan” to dispose of non-core assets, return capital to shareholders, and close the gap between share price and intrinsic value. An upcoming May 2026 company update could act as a near-term catalyst for a move in the share price, while the stock also offers a 5%+ dividend yield.

Thesis: “Cerillion specialises in providing software for billing, charging, and customer relationship management in the telecommunications sector… I went conservative and assumed a 9% growth in the first 1-3 years then the growth will slow down to 6% 4-6 years out. In my assumption I also went with an exit multiple of 16x earnings which is below the historical average at which Cerillion has traded. Based on my assumption I have come to a buy price of £7.46p compared to the current stock price of £12.85 which means right now Cerillion is trading above its intrinsic value.”

Share British Alpha

Thesis: Chemring looks increasingly like a durable defence industrial compounder rather than a purely cyclical flare-maker, with record order cover, multi-year contracts, and government-backed capacity expansion supporting a stronger earnings base. The bull case is that today’s valuation still reflects old boom-bust memories, so if management converts this backlog into steady cash generation, the shares could rerate materially from here.

Thesis: “Manufacturer of ceramic tableware, primarily serving the global hospitality sector… Has been around for 231 years and is producing a product that has been pretty much unchanged during the whole time. It has survived numerous wars and numerous changes in global manufacturing trends. If the Lindy effect is true in this example, I think that Mr. Market is currently offering a skewed risk / reward proposition here. Although, as usual, it is always nice if there are a bit more general turmoil in the market / sector to get a bit more of a “blood on the streets” opportunity.”

Thesis: “Owner of the Dow Schofield Watts and DR Solicitors brands, and is a business advisory platform. DSW operates a licensee fee model in which it provides branding and back-end support to M&A advisors in return for a licensee fee. DR solicitors operates a consultancy model in which it refers work to legal consultants in return for a profit share. The capital light nature and network effects of this business make it a compelling long-term investment. Trading at an extremely attractive valuation with a strong management team and target dividend payout ratio of 70%.”

Thesis: “They have a single major producing asset, the [Iraqi] Shaikan oil field.” GKP potentially offers upside potential driven by catalysts such as a new Iraq-Turkey pipeline agreement, the recovery of £112 million owed by the Kurdish government, and a permanent regional ceasefire. However, South Sea Investing ultimately recommends passing on the stock, as the severe geopolitical and operational risks currently outweigh the potential rewards unless an investor possesses a particularly high-risk appetite

Thesis: “The group operates as a diversified financial services ecosystem across Georgia and Armenia… At ~7x earnings for nearly 29% ROE, this is one of the more asymmetric risk/reward profiles on the LSE today – a high-quality business priced like a cyclical. For those willing to stomach emerging-market noise, Lion offers precisely what long-term investors seek: durable growth, defensive moats, and a margin of safety wrapped in obscurity. Verdict: Accumulate on pullbacks, ignore the headlines, and prepare to be bored into riches.”

Thesis: “It is a platform model built around self-employed senior lawyers, variable costs, central infrastructure and very strong cash generation… Revenue rose from £56.4m in FY2021 to £97.7m in FY2025, the group stayed debt-free, ended FY2025 with £9.7m of cash, and kept returning meaningful amounts of cash to shareholders. Since IPO, Keystone says it has returned just over £45m to shareholders, or just over 145p per share, equal to 96% of adjusted earnings generated over that period. That is exactly what high-return, capital-light businesses tend to look like in practice.”

Thesis: A retailer. M&S is now attempting to rebuild a new compounding loop — where Food drives frequency, Fashion & Home provides operating leverage, and a rationalised store estate acts as a flywheel rather than a drag — and that successful execution would justify a higher multiple than the market currently assigns

Thesis: “A 140-year-old British engineering company that accidentally became one of the most strategically important defence suppliers in NATO.” “MSI has an unusually long list of catalysts… The market is waiting for a reason to look. The reasons are queuing up.”

Thesis: A fashion retailer. “It earns high-teens margins and returns on capital of around 30%. It has done so for decades. And it’s done it in an incredibly cut-throat, competitive and fast-changing industry… It’s easily one of the best managed businesses I’ve come across, with better long-term prospects today than for many years, in my opinion.”

Thesis: “UK-based and UK-listed software company, offering products to help with accounting and enterprise resource management, primarily targeted at small and medium businesses (SMBs)… Sage appears to be a good company, with decent profits and reasonable growth… [But] I do not believe capital is being deployed as effectively as possible, judged by its use of cash for share buybacks at apparently imprudent prices, recent increases in leverage, and growth rates which are not keeping pace with competitors or the market.”

Thesis: Internet infrastructure. “We are currently playing a game of time arbitrage. The broader market, driven by algorithms and short-term anxiety, lacks the patience to wait for the catalyst. We do not. For investors willing to stomach the volatility, ignore the macroeconomic noise, and wait for the corporate information vacuum to clear, Team Internet Group offers one of the most compelling, asymmetric risk/reward setups available anywhere in the market today.”

Thesis: Multinational consumer packaged goods company. “A quality business – with 30 Power Brands (and associated strong cash flows) and very attractive positions across both emerging and developed markets. Yes, growth has been somewhat lacklustre in recent years, but I would give the Group the benefit of the doubt post-TMICC separation that it can accelerate this from here. Lastly, a dividend yield of 3.4% (and expected to grow over time) is not too shabby. I like ULVR and am happy to hold it in my portfolio.”

Thesis: “Operates as a specialised financial services powerhouse… W&D occupies a dominant and defensible position within the multifamily finance ecosystem. Its business model elegantly balances the high-growth potential of capital markets transactions with the stability of a massive, high-margin servicing portfolio. For the long-term investor, W&D represents a rare combination of a high-moat specialty finance firm with a scalable, technology-driven growth profile.”

Thesis: “A franchised leak detection business… Listed on the AIM even though 85%+ of revenue is derived in the U.S., the business will likely relist to the NASDAQ in the near future - a clear catalyst for value realisation. In an upside case with expanded EBITDA margins from the ‘Dallas Template’, organic revenue growth driven by the StreamLabs partnership, and a listing on the NASDAQ, the company would trade at 6.2x ‘26 Earnings, compared to U.S. listed peers which trade at 20.0x. If the multiple rerated to ½ that of peers, it would represent 60%+ upside.”

Thesis: A home retailer. “On the surface it’s a furniture retailer; underneath, it’s a mix of proprietary design, a carefully stacked brand ladder, years of customer data, and an omnichannel setup most of the industry is still chasing. That combination, high returns on capital, sensible balance sheet, and a model that should gain share when weaker players stumble, is exactly what I want to have pre‑underwritten before volatility shows up.”

Thesis: A “technology-led, entertainment business focused on the UK prize draw market and the Romanian online gaming sector.” “Assuming a revenue split of £180 million for the UK prize draw segment and… £120 million for the Romanian online gaming segment… the Company could achieve EBITDA of £66 million by 2028.” “Applying a modest 8.5x enterprise value to EBITDA multiple would imply an enterprise valuation of £561 million… That would represent roughly 2.3x upside from the current share price.”

No posts

Read the original on britishalpha.substack.com

Comments

Nothing yet. Say the first thing.

    Sign in to join the conversation.