Great British Stock Ideas! #32

1. 3I Group (£III) – The Dutch Investors

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Thesis: “Specialises in private equity and infrastructure… Action is 3i’s biggest holding by far. The company accounts for almost 90% of 3i’s private equity GIR (Gross Investment Return)… The fact that 3i values Action at 18.5 times EBITDA, tells us the company is still looking to scoop up more shares of the company. We expect 3i to expand their position beyond the current stake over time. Based on the assumptions we made, you can expect a 8-12% return per year for the next five years.”

2. Admiral Group plc (£ADM) – The Curious Compounder

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Thesis: Direct motor insurer. “What makes Admiral interesting now is the UK motor insurance cycle. Personal motor premiums have fallen nearly 30% from their 2024 peak. The industry combined ratio is forecast to hit 112% in 2026. Less advantaged competitors will move from profits to losses, which always focuses the minds of senior executives! I believe we are approaching a positive inflection in the pricing of UK motor insurance, likely bringing Admiral’s share price with it as investors anticipate growing profits.”

3. Arkle Resources PLC (£ARK) – Charles Archer

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Thesis: “A multi-commodity energy metals explorer with a flagship uranium position in one of the world’s great uranium districts, a meaningful stake in a high-grade Irish zinc discovery that its joint venture partner has been quietly turning into something significant, and a large lithium brine position in Botswana that is moving toward drilling… But the asymmetry of the situation — the scale of what these assets could be worth if the exploration delivers, against what they are currently priced at — is striking.”

4. Ashtead Technology (£AT) – Outsized Returns

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Thesis: “[It] rents [out] and services specialist subsea equipment used in offshore energy and marine markets (oil & gas and offshore wind)… The combination of a low valuation plus heavy short positioning can create asymmetric outcomes. But only if the market is misclassifying the business.”

5. Autotrader Group (£AUTO) – InvestingWithWes Newsletter

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Thesis: “The UK’s largest digital automotive marketplace and data platform… based on my conservative assumption AutoTrader Group is looking to grow 6% over the long run so I went conservative and assumed a 4% growth in the first 1-3 years then the growth will slow down to 1% 4-6 years out… Based on my assumption I have come to a buy price of £3.56 compared to the current stock price of £4.92 which means right now AutoTrader Group is trading above its intrinsic value.”

6. Burford Capital (£BUR) – Undervalued Shares

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Thesis: Burford Capital is the world’s largest litigation finance firm, providing capital to legal sectors in exchange for a portion of settlement proceeds. The investment thesis suggests that the market has already priced in a “worst-case” outcome regarding its major Argentina (YPF) litigation, leaving the shares trading at a significant discount to book value. Consequently, the company is well-positioned for a rerating as it pivots towards a broader corporate finance model and capitalises on new legal catalysts.

7. Capricorn Energy PLC (£CNE) – Zero GCOS

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Thesis: An oil and gas producer with assets in the Egyptian Western desert. Trading at an enterprise value of ~£133M, with improving contract terms via a consolidated PSC agreement that raises the incremental gas price, unlocks contingent resources, and drive reserve upgrades and cash flow. The key risk is high corporate general and administrative costs that suppress free cash flow, alongside the binary question of whether management can execute value-accretive M&A. But if both risks are mitigated, the EV/FCF could compress to ~3.6x, representing meaningful upside.

8. Croda International PLC (£CRDA) – Patroclus of Value Investors Club

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Thesis: A speciality chemicals company. “Croda’s share price has fallen 75% as EBIT margins collapsed from 24.5% to 17% and ROIC dropped from 20% to 7%.... We believe it reflects temporary operational disruption in a business that is structurally improved: pure-play specialty ingredients (vs. 45% commoditised industrial in 2015), doubled pharma exposure concentrated in biologics, and higher regulatory barriers across the portfolio… We see scope for the stock to more than double over 4 years as margins normalise, for 25% annualised returns.”

9. CT Automotive (£CTA) – UnreasonableAsymmetric’s Substack

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Thesis: “A £20 million market cap Tier-2 automotive supplier, in plastic injection moulded parts.” It appears undervalued with potential 10%+ revenue growth driven by Mexico production, strong margins and a structural low-cost advantage, which could lead to a re-rating if operations normalise. However, the author is not investing yet due to risks including weak receivables linked to distressed customers, governance concerns such as CFO turnover and disclosure issues, balance-sheet fragility, and ongoing shareholder selling pressure, preferring to wait for these risks to de-risk first.

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10. Fulcrum Metals PLC (£FMET) – Charles Archer

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Thesis: FMET owns to gold tailings asset. “Fulcrum Metals is not a conventional gold miner, and it is a mistake to evaluate it as one. It’s a company with exclusive rights to a breakthrough processing technology, applied to a large and largely untapped resource base in one of the world’s great historical gold regions, with a business model that aligns commercial interest with environmental remediation… You don’t want to throw the kitchen sink at this. But you might want to consider a Fulcrum fee. Tailings stories are set for a run.”

11. GetBusy plc (£GETB) – Bmlsvalue of Value Investors Club

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Thesis: “GetBusy plc is a small illiquid UK-based company with 3 software platforms: SmartVault, Virtual Cabinet and Workiro that is likely to have asymmetric upside from a combination of asset sales and organic growth. Last year the controlling family maximised its own stake in the company to 30% and signalled intent to sell the mature SmartVault at more than its current market cap, return capital to shareholders and focus on developing growth products. The timeline may stretch to early 2028 but everything is in place for value realisation.”

12. GetBusy plc (£GETB) – DW Partnership

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Thesis: A discounted SaaS business trading at 1.6x EV/ARR, with the primary bull case being a potential sale of its subsidiary SmartVault at a 10x EV/ARR multiple, which management are incentivised to execute before 2030 and which could return 70–150m in cash distributions, implying 74–233% upside from the current 70p share price. Even without a sale, the downside is protected by both products being cash-generative, with a steady-state base case of 25% operating margins by FY30 giving a fair value of ~101p, yielding a blended weighted average target of 117p (+70%).

13. Halyk Bank HSBK – Blmsvalue of Value Investors Club

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Thesis: “A dominant, compounder bank essential to Kazakhstan’s economy trading at a deep discount due to perceived geopolitical and governance risk and low liquidity. Historically, attractive returns have come from earnings growth and dividends without needing multiple expansion. However, stock buybacks combined with a major stake sale by the majority shareholder that improves free float increases probabilities for a re-rating. While there are some near-term economic and regulatory headwinds, there are also multiple growth drivers not reflected in the valuation.”

14. IG Design Group plc (£IGR) – Deep-Value Stocks

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Thesis: “One of the world’s leading designers, innovators, manufacturers, and distributors of celebration and creative products…We’re paying for the assets, at a discount, and getting a pretty solid operating business for free. I believe that even the slightest positive report from the operating business over the next 1-2 years, will cause the stock to re-rate at least 50% (possibly more).”

15. London Stock Exchange Group (£LSEG) – Rock & Turner

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Thesis: “LSEG sells the tools that banks, hedge funds and trading firms all depend on: market data, indexes, risk intelligence, trading workflows and clearing infrastructure… At present the shares appear to trade materially below the value implied by the company’s assets and long term cash generation. Some analysts are suggesting that the shares are trading at 66 pence on the pound, which implies ~50% upside from current levels around 80 GBX per share. If the market agrees and gradually recognises this, the current valuation gap could close.”

16. McBride plc (£MCB) – Hvitserk of Value Investors Club

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Thesis: “The leading European manufacturer of private label household cleaning products… McBride’s scale creates cost advantages, the company is gaining market share, and the “cost of living” crisis has favoured private label… Management announced a buyback in November of ~10% of the float (GBP 20m) over the next ~12 months, with a further announcement that board intends to buy back up to 25% of shares if the undervaluation persists. Since the low in November, the stock has rallied 25-30% and moved P/E from 5x to 6.5x… But the stock still looks cheap.”

17. React Group plc (£REAT) – DW Partnership

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Thesis: “A niche cleaning solutions provider with an M&A roll up strategy. Management have a goal of reaching £5m FCF by 2028. The current market cap is £13m with an Enterprise Value £17m, and a steady state FCF of c.£2m. With an impressive 93% recurring revenue and long-term contracts, providing revenue and profitability visibility… For this valuation I have created a valuation based on a couple of scenarios… This gives a weighted average fair value of 100p (96% upside).”

18. Renew Holdings (£RNWH) – Outsized Returns

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Thesis: “Renew is often treated like a “boring UK contractor” which is cyclical, low margin and tied to lumpy project work. In reality, it’s closer to a regulated-infrastructure maintenance compounder… The result is a business where downside is dampened by non-discretionary maintenance, and upside is driven by (1) normalisation in rail, (2) steady framework growth, (3) bolt-on M&A with no heroics required projects.”

19. RTC Group (£RTC) – Deep-Value Stocks

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Thesis: “an AIM-listed recruitment business located in Derby.” With a market cap of £13.31m, zero bank debt, and a £200m secured order book. Trading at just 5x FCF, the company returns approximately 12% per year to shareholders through a combination of dividends and buybacks, making it a decent opportunity. However, the writer doesn’t own any, because they believe other stocks offer better opportunities.

20. The Property Franchise Group (£TPFG) – Outsized Returns

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Thesis: “A multi-brand property services platform with three engines: franchising, financial services, and licensing… The market can sometimes stop there and miss what sits underneath: an asset-light franchise model, annuity-like lettings income, attached mortgage economics, licensing income, and a playbook that has compounded through acquisitions and operating scale for years.”

21. Trainline (£TRN) – Outsized Returns

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Thesis: Platform for selling train and bus tickets and cards. “The bear narrative fits neatly into three bullets: GBR rail reform, AI disintermediation, and tap-in/tap-out making booking less relevant. The share price reaction has been relentless… But here’s the mismatch. While the narrative has got louder, the business has quietly continued to do the two things you want in an “outsized returns” setup: grow and compound per share.”

22. Tortilla Mexican Grill PLC (£MEX) – Compounder Mechanics Substack

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Thesis: Mexican food chain. An under-densified chain — with only ~80 UK sites against a population of 67 million — that has already proven its format is robust and, suggesting a runway for urban density expansion. The core bet is that, just as Chipotle compounded by becoming spatially unavoidable in US cities, Tortilla can replicate that habituation flywheel in London and key regional cities (Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, Bristol), supported further by franchise partnerships with SSP and early international presence in France and the Middle East

23. Trufin (£TRU) - Miroslav Štěpánek - Stock Investing

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Thesis: “Company consisting of majority stakes in two software companies and indie game publisher Playstack… [The] most important part of Trufin is Playstack, which generates more than 70% of EBITDA and is also the fastest-growing part of the company… When we factor in buybacks, profit growth, and the release of Mortal Shell 2, I think we could reach single-digit EV/FCF in year 2026… [There is] a new incentive for Playstack’s management, which is structured to support the sale or spin-off of Playstack, which means that we could see value unlocked.”