"Labour needs to lose to learn"

Runcorn. An industrial port and town on a peninsula wedged between Cheshire and Lancashire. (And yes, it’s in Cheshire, I know.) Not a well known town. And historically, pretty safe politically. Find me a year when it voted for anything other than Labour in a council contest. The Lib Dems did put in a good show on occasion during the Blair years. But barring that, the councillors here been Labour. And more often than not, overwhelmingly so.

Just on low turnouts.

We are coming up to one year since the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. A Reform gain by a wafer-thin six vote margin. Tiny, yes, but before Runcorn Reform were in the mid-20s in the opinion polls. After Runcorn, they reached the 30s, and sit now on 29 per cent.

Had Reform missed out, I do not think the subsequent news coverage would have given as ample oxygen as it has for Reform to be ahead by as much as it is. Put simply, as Runcorn went, England has followed.

Now a deep-dive on the numbers can tell you Labour won in Helsby, Frodsham and the surrounding villages right up to Chester, whereas Reform won in the town — Runcorn proper. The villages and their councillors aren’t up this year. They’re up in ‘27. But the town’s councillors are. And the Labour councillors defending it came in on the kinds of majorities you’d weigh, not count.

Impregnable, surely. At least that’s what some councillors appear to think.

Anyone good with political data can work out where in Runcorn Reform did best. Last year I built a model for it. And wrote extensively about it. There was almost no ward in Runcorn that Reform didn’t win.

Recently, at the close of 2025, I was able to speak with some Runcorn councillors about their prospects. I won’t print names, out of deference to their dignity. Because I have to say, the response, tin-eared in parts, astonished me.

And one councillor, who I will get to first, was even scathing about their colleagues.

“It’s ridiculous,” this one said. “I think we need to lose first just so we can see sense.”

“We’re barely campaigning. In some places we’ve only just started delivering.”

This was December last year.

“Some of them still haven’t even decided whether they’re standing again!”

I spoke to another councillor who “got a big vote last time.”

“I should be ok next year.”

I raised my eyes at this. Were you campaigning?

“I hope to start in the new year.”

So, no.

What about the by-election. Where do you think Reform won in Runcorn?

“I don’t know. Not my seat.”

Really? [The internal data showed Reform won this ward by a canter.]

“I don’t think so. My voters wouldn’t vote for that party.”

Partly true. But also wrong.

Back to the scathing councillor:

“I got elected with 900 votes.”

This was a ward right in the heart of Runcorn.

“In the by-election, I was at the count, we all expected this many people to vote.”

The councillor held the palm of their hand flat, close to their chest.

“But in my ward, this happened.”

The hand shot up, above the neck, the head, all with an accompanying “whoosh” sound.

“No one expected it. It happened all over Halton [Runcorn].”

“Karen [Labour’s by-election candidate] got as many votes as I did. More, I think.”

“But Reform got much more.”

“I’m not up next year (thank God). But I’m worried it’ll happen again.”

The councillor thumbed to the colleagues nearby.

“I’m worried they’re not ready for it.”

There are 54 council seats in Halton. 50 of them are represented by Labour. 16 of those 50 will be up in May. Runcorn is now Reform’s most marginal seat to defend. And Labour is down but, in some corners, certainly not out about it.

Models show Runcorn and Helsby is still a tight fight seat. If an election were held now, Reform would win, but only by the equivalent of a few hundred votes, or maybe a thousand.

That is not a done deal for any party. But from conversations with Runcorn’s Labour councillors, one wonders if their side is even trying.

I went home that day aghast at what was a “tale from the front”, but I also went home appreciative of why they are the way they are.

So many councillors in Britain sit in safe boroughs that have known no different. They come in on the understanding theirs was an impregnable majority. “Don’t worry about knocking doors, we’ll handle it for you” - the words of one Labour MP convincing a charity worker to stand for council. And after a few elections they assume it’ll stay that way. Competitive council seats are used to the doorstep season. They’re used to literature beyond the black and white A4 some in Runcorn are still putting out today. It’s because they’ve known they have to. It’s their route to winning. But Halton, and others, have known little else but an administration of one stripe. This applies to Labour admins just as much as it does Conservative.

Reform has thrown all that out the window. One would have assumed that at Ground Zero, the local councillors would wise up to it.

It seems not.