Content Experts vs Experts in Persuasion

Sixty years ago, a popular book “The Hidden Persuaders” described the evolving science of product promotion through advertising. This was a long time ago and sixty years have made the hidden persuaders ever more effective. I have had a front row seat and have taken special interest regarding the promotion of #children’s multivitamins.

When I first started practicing pediatrics in an Ontario suburb, I was stunned to encounter a high number of toddler multivitamin overdoses. Having completed gastroenterology and nutrition training, I didn’t know a lot but I knew that there was little need for multivitamin supplementation in children. Yet, almost weekly, I was called in to the Emergency Department to treat a child who had ingested the entire bottle of Flintstones. These events usually occurred on Sunday mornings, so I assumed that the overdoses resulted from the television advertising promoting the vitamins during morning television cartoon shows.

However, scientific training made me understand that while every project starts with a hypothesis, that hypothesis should be put to the test. Most often after completing the research you find that your original theory was incorrect and the search uncovers truths you never suspected.

Why is this? The problem often results from differing perspectives. Regardless of your education, your view of the problem may be valid, but it remains a narrow view. Scientific method asks you to step back and to check your preconceived ideas by testing why your theory might not be the only explanation.

In trying to better understand the cause multivitamin overdose, I approached our local university. As it turned out, #McMaster university had developed advanced expertise in #epidemiology and biostatistics, the science of studies. Being community oriented, they supported me and pointed me to one of their experts in statistics. I also lined up a very bright dietician to help us.

Our research project was pretty simple. Identify the kids who had overdosed and compare them to a sample of a few other families – say a thousand. There was only one place to find a thousand families willing to complete a questionnaire about their use of vitamins and the availability of vitamins in the home – the Halton School system.

The local school board was happy to oblige and so were the parents (these were simpler times). And what were the results? You guessed it. There was no evidence of vitamin deficiency in the diets of the thousand school children but there was a surprise which ran counter to my original idea.

Poisoning in these families was directly correlated to the number of bottles of vitamins in the home. For every bottle of household vitamins, there was a 2% chance of an overdose and in the small group of families with 4 or more bottles, there was an 8% chance of an accident in any given year, which could have been serious if the product ingested contained a high iron dose.

We call prejudging a situation and drawing conclusions before examining the facts prejudice. We usually apply this term to social interaction but it is equally bad to prejudge in science as it is in society.

The moral of the story is that if you already know your conclusion before you conduct your research, you are not a scientist, you are a lawyer. Now I’m going to shift gears

Presently, in the USA, #Health and Human Services is not being run by an expert, it not being run by an administrator, it is being run by a lawyer. The Department of War is being run by a television commentator. This represents a sea change in the administration of important services a modern government is expected to provide.

A trial lawyer looks for the part of the evidence that supports his argument and hammers that home to the judge and jury. In selecting the people to run the USA, President Trump replaced people with judgement with a panel of talented persuaders and news hosts who how to press emotional buttons.

In addition to Kennedy, Trump drafted #Peter Hegseth putting them in charge of huge portfolios. Many of the other appointees were also non-expert media stars, past masters in the art of persuasion gleaned from the ranks of Fox News.

Robert Kennedy has a warped perspective. The idea that someone is out to get you has special meaning for RFK resulting from the assassinations of his father and uncle. What RFK never learned about science in high school, he might have learned in university if he hadn’t spent so much time feeding a serious drug problem.

It’s not a surprise that Trump picked Kennedy for the Health portfolio. Part of Trump’s populist appeal was that many Americans had come to believe that someone (everyone) was “out to get them” and Trump attracted his base by proposing professionals, academics and experts as possible suspects.

Identifying villains with motive is much like how intravenous drug work. A government run by lawyers, broadcasters, and hucksters bypasses reason and speaks directly to emotion. Many of Trump’s supporters have “Lost their Minds” meaning they have sacrificed the thinking part of their brains in favour of the feeling part of their emotions

In the absence of reason their default is looking for villains. Desperation puts a premium on action whereas judgement is tempered by hesitation, the pause that allows for consideration and empathy. This quality is much more evident in leadership style epitomized by the current Canadian prime minister than we have witnessed on the American side of the border.