Back from Europe: Reflections on Canada’s Pivot Away From the US

Well, I’m back after a fairly long sojourn on holiday. To be honest, I’ve avoided virtually all news until this week, so have—somewhat reluctantly—some catching up to do. However, I spent the last five weeks in Europe and have some observations, as I always do.

I chose Europe for a number of reasons. The most important were family-related and aren’t germane to this discussion. Secondly, I’m approaching a milestone birthday, and the trip was a present to myself. Finally, I, like many Canadians, have chosen to avoid all travel to the United States.

I encountered the latter attitude with every Canadian I met in passing. Meeting a mixed group of Americans and Canadians at one destination, I was pulled aside by a Canadian couple who whispered that they were hiding their nationality to avoid provocation, but that their reasons for being in Europe were the same as mine. The numbers are significant, and I encountered the same motivation amongst other Canadians while visiting four different countries.

With this in mind, I have a few observations.

First, I do think Canada has much in common with Europe and that these similarities need to be cultivated to bring us closer to the continent in general. Fundamentally, I think Canadians share a very similar perspective to that of Europeans regarding what government is and what role it should play in society. Our vision is wildly at variance with that of the current US administration. I worry, though, that Canadian society has become far too Americanized to allow Canada to become European in a broader sense. Dreams of Canadian EU membership are, I suspect, just that—dreams.

This isn’t to say that Canada shouldn’t pursue closer economic and security relations with Europe—far from it. Many of the countries in the EU are historical allies with whom Canada shares deep connections. Moreover, I believe that many, especially in the US, seriously underestimate European industrial and defence potential. As this expands, Canada has made the correct decision to become involved at the very beginning. A pivot to Europe could be a real and substantial step.

I spent a considerable amount of time in France and the United Kingdom, reaffirming my belief that both remain significant powers in their own right. Of the two, France appears better positioned to confront the new realities imposed by Donald Trump and his odious administration. France has a completely independent defence industrial base and isn’t beholden to allies for any capability. They are in an enviable position, despite having cashed in the peace dividend in the 1990s. However, this independence means that any adoption by Canada of French defence hardware is much more complex than procuring systems from the US or other NATO countries; French systems use French parts and French technology. Having said this, I hope that the very fact that French defence equipment isn’t dependent on the US makes it more, not less, attractive to Ottawa.

The UK is in a much more difficult position. As predicted in my article Britain’s Faustian Bargain: The Special Relationship Meets Its Reckoning the UK is attempting to walk a tightrope and appease the Trump administration while pivoting to a more sovereign defence posture. Unlike France (or Canada for that matter), the UK hosts important US military bases and has deep integration with the Americans at the strategic level. As pointed out in my prior article, the entire British nuclear deterrent is dependent upon missile sharing with the United States, and the “special relationship” remains central to the British global approach.

However, the UK is making major efforts to develop more sovereign, high-technology systems away from US input. These include fighter aircraft, missiles, and communications systems, all of which Canada could seek to get on board with. Thus, while the British will likely continue to appease the US and stroke Trump’s enormous ego, things are changing almost under the radar. The British certainly retain the potential to pivot. Whether the will is there remains to be seen.

Unfortunately, I didn’t visit Germany, but things seem to be changing rapidly there. Germany was one of the countries that took major advantage of the so-called peace dividend and dramatically reduced its defence potential. They appear to be attempting to rebuild this rapidly to counter the obvious threat posed by Putin’s Russia. There have been major announcements regarding defence budget increases and large procurements of armoured vehicles, naval vessels, and other improvements. Given that Germany, perhaps more than any major Western power, cashed out the peace dividend in a major way, they have a long way to go.

My return to Canada has coincided with Prime Minister Carney’s European tour. I believe Carney is attempting a delicate strategic balance: placating the US while quietly pivoting toward Europe, signalling that Canada intends to maintain strong ties with both without being dictated to by either. I’ll be the first to admit that I was getting concerned with the tone coming out of Ottawa over the summer. Carney appeared to cancel the Digital Services Tax in an effort to appease Donald Trump. We also seem to have given ground during the ongoing trade negotiations, with the PM attempting to remind suspicious Canadians that we already enjoy a “good deal” with the US and that the concessions aren’t all that serious. On top of that, Ottawa has lavished grating praise on Trump personally for his ridiculous efforts to negotiate peace in the Ukraine conflict. I’m not sure Canadians are in any mood to stroke Trump’s ego, no matter how strategic the thinking behind it.

My worries have been mollified to a large extent by Carney’s current visit. He’s saying all the right things on the European stage and has concluded several agreements very quickly. On the defence front, key Cabinet members have visited Sweden, and the Prime Minister announced the two candidates for Canada’s new submarine programme—in record time. The much-ballyhooed “pivot” seems to be real, but it will take months yet to see it translated into concrete action.

In the meantime, we’re still awaiting Cabinet guidance on major issues such as the F-35 procurement. The RCAF is fully committed to the F-35 and has a strong professional affinity for the US Air Force, making a shift challenging. That said, Cabinet must make the final decision, weighing political, strategic, and industrial considerations. I hope they settle on a smaller F-35 purchase, paired with a larger number of European aircraft—but only time will tell.

I’m certainly a fan of Canada becoming more “European” in our approach to defence, security, trade, and industrial policy. There is an enormous amount of potential to be tapped by pursuing closer relationships with the EU and other European countries. However, I fear that Canada remains too intertwined with the US for a pivot to have much effect in the short to medium term. Despite our newfound patriotism, Canadians remain very American culturally and are awash in American influences. Many Canadians love their NFL too much to give it all up, but unless we start making a deliberate mental shift, we’ll never move beyond symbolic gestures. If Canada is serious about shaping its own future, the time to begin is now.