Is Connelly Early the Odd Man Out?

After last season and going into this season, you’d be called crazy for thinking that Connelly Early would be at risk of getting traded and no longer being a member of the Boston Red Sox, but that is the world we live in, as the currently injured Early has been leapfrogged in the rotation and is on the wrong end of the Red Sox's 2027 rotation surplus.

First, Early had an incredible amount of hype, being the Red Sox #10 overall prospect going into the 2025 season, per Baseball America, and was one of the top pitching prospects in the system. He quickly blossomed to a top pitching prospect in baseball in that 2025 season, posting a 2.60 ERA with 11.8 strikeouts per 9 innings, along with a WHIP of 1.22 over 100.1 innings between Portland and Worcester, before getting called up in early September to help with the Red Sox’s postseason push, and that’s where Early got a massive amount of helium. His debut in Sacramento was stuff of legend, where he struck out 11 in a 5-inning shutout to get his first career win. The kid stayed hot through his other 3 starts that year, where he looked like an ace, with a 2.33 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 19.1 innings.

That leads us into this year, where he became a consensus Top 100 prospect, and because of his strong 2025, fans were clamoring for Early to be a member of the initial 26-man roster, which, after a strong spring training, the fans got their wish, as he was part of the rotation to start the year. However, Early hasn’t lived up to expectations this year, as the consistency that was a big part of his game just hasn’t shown up this year. He’s often had to grind through outings and has struggled with his command, only throwing 46.5% of pitches in the zone. Couple that with a whiff rate of only 23.7%, which is not a desirable combo. That has let batters make a ton of contact, and they have, which has led to desirable surface-level results, as the 24-year-old has a solid 3.44 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, but most of that contact has been hard. Hitters have recorded a barrel on 10.6% of the 254 batted balls, which puts him in the 12th percentile of all qualified pitchers in the major leagues. Consequently, home runs have been an issue, as he gives up around 1.5 homers per nine innings, which is the reason he holds a 4.61 FIP and 4.15 xFIP.

Due to his lack of consistent outings and now his elbow injury, Early has seen his future spot in the rotation be put at risk by two starters, Sonny Gray and fellow young lefty Jake Bennett.

Gray is the more interesting case here, due to his age, contract situation, and performance. Going into this year, Gray was entering the final guaranteed year of a three-year $75 million contract that he signed back in 2024 with St.Louis. Now, Gray is in his age-36 season, with a $30 million mutual option for the 2027 season, which is currently up in the air. While it isn’t conventional to give someone who is going on 37 years old that large of a paycheck, Gray has made his case to stay for at least next season. He’s tied for the most wins by a pitcher in the MLB with 12, and boasts an elite 2.48 ERA over 100 innings. He’s also done a phenomenal job limiting baserunners and being a rock-steady veteran. For reference, he’s thrown at least 6 innings in 14 of his 18 starts, with his last start under 6 innings being May 24th, which was a four-inning start, where he allowed three runs against the Twins. Likewise, his consistency is otherworldly, as he’s had a quality start in his last nine starts and has allowed a maximum of one run per start in his last 5 outings. Adding to that run prevention and consistency aspect, he’s only allowed 4 runs or more twice this season, and the last time he did that was mid-April.

On the other hand, there’s Jake Bennett, who, much like Lightning McQueen in the first Cars movie, went from a relative unknown to bursting on the scene. Since his most recent call-up, which was a result of Brayan Bello being sent down, Bennett has stuck on the roster and has become what fans were expecting out of Early. Although he’s only pitched nine games, he’s quickly becoming the preferred young lefty starter among Red Sox fans, for two reasons: his ability to flat-out pitch, and his remarkable consistency. As of writing, Bennett has a 2.35 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, with an xERA that’s just under 3, and a FIP just over 3. Even though the big lefty doesn’t have a hard fastball, he makes it play up with his elite extension and locates it extremely well, which allows the rest of his arsenal to shine. Because he is able to locate his pitches well and change speeds, batters simply haven’t figured him out. They simply try to do too much and chase a ton, which has led to plentiful weak, groundball contact, allowing Bennett to thrive without needing the strikeout. Another reason why he doesn’t need strikeouts is his ability to limit walks. Even though he throws pitches in the zone at a below-average clip, he’s in the 98th percentile for walk percentage, at 4.4%.

His ability to mix and match has led to be regarded as a “true pitcher”, and his recent numbers back that up. As of writing, he’s gone 6 innings in each of his last five starts and has allowed only three runs in those five games.

So with the wily veteran Gray turning back the clock and being everything the Red Sox could ask for when they traded for him, and Bennett becoming what was expected of Early this year, you may be wondering what the Red Sox do with Early. There are two probable avenues the Red Sox can explore here. The first is to keep him and see how he does after he comes back. While Early has struggled this year, he’s shown flashes of being an impact arm and can easily be a very solid mid-rotation arm.

The other option is not as probable, but could happen for the right price, and that is trading Early away. While Early is hurt right now, he could be dealt at the deadline or over the winter if the Red Sox see fit. However, Early would likely be a part of a package to acquire a top name to either put the team over the top for this postseason, or to bolster the future. Some examples of players that Early could be dealt for would be the A’s Shea Langeliers or the Angels Zach Neto, but only time will tell what Boston does with the young southpaw.