Back on November 21st, after the first session of the series, I published a list of 11 Ashes Hot Takes.
Now, with the series fast drawing to a close, it’s the perfect time to revisit these predictions and mark my own homework.
Hot Take #1: Will Jacks Will Open At Least Once For England In This Series
I thought that, at some point throughout the series, Zak Crawley would get dropped, and, bereft of any other options, England would ask Will Jacks to open the innings.
Obviously, this didn’t come to pass, although Jacks playing in four of the five Tests is far more than I would have predicted, and he has scored his 145 runs at 24.2, which is a better average than Ben Duckett (17.8), Ben Stokes (20.3), Jamie Smith (23.1), Jacob Bethell (17), or Ollie Pope (20.8).
Verdict: Wrong, but in the right ballpark by predicting Jacks would have a useful series with the bat. I just picked the wrong top-order English batter to be dropped!
Hot Take #2: Brendan Doggett Will Take More Wickets Than Jofra Archer (Plus A Tangent on English Bowlers)
I added: “And that won’t necessarily be a high number, either.”
Doggett ended the series with 7 wickets from two Tests.
Archer ended the series with 9 wickets from three Tests.
Let me dig a little deeper into this, though, because my general point about England’s bowling attack being underwhelming was proven correct, and I don’t really want to write a whole separate piece on that.
Here’s a stat that should tell you everything you need to know. England has been playing Test cricket for nearly 150 years. 2025 was their least economical year with the ball in history, bleeding runs at 3.7 an over. This broke the record they had set in 2024, when they conceded runs at 3.53.
Now, to be fair, the past three calendar years have been the most expensive for bowlers in Test history, so nearly everyone has been struggling.
Even so, only Zimbabwe conceded their runs at a higher rate than England in 2025, while Australia were 0.4 runs per over more economical, equating to 36 fewer runs over the course of a Test day.
It is not just the economy that is an issue, as 2025 was also England’s highest-averaging year with the ball (35.76) for nearly two decades, since 2006.
In conjunction, you can see a pretty clear trend in the wrong direction with the ball since the start of BazBall.
Maybe, in retrospect, it wasn’t the brightest idea to jettison your all-time leading wicket-taker because you were worried he was too old and would break down, only to end the tour with three injured quicks anyway (Wood, Archer, Atkinson) and a front-line attack of Potts, Tongue, Carse, and Jacks, who have a combined 36 Tests of experience, and who I believe have a strong case to be the worst frontline attack ever selected in an Ashes Test.
Given the quality of Australian attacks down the years, and the fact that England usually have at least one or two good bowlers per era I am struggling to think of many worse. My other nomination would be England in 1989, who went in with Phil DeFreitas, Neil Foster, Phil Newport, and Derek Pringle in the first Test. Unsurprisingly, Australia scored 601/7d and 230/3d in that match. If you can think of four weaker frontline bowlers than the England attack for this SCG Test, please share in the comments, because I’m definitely going to be thinking about this for several weeks now.
Verdict: Archer took more wickets, but Doggett did take more wickets than Archer on a per-Test basis (3.5 vs 3), and I was right that neither would take a high number. Half a point?
Hot Take 3: Gus Atkinson or Bryden Carse Will Have Scored The Most Runs for England After Brisbane
“Either Gus Atkinson or Bryden Carse will slog a few 40s down the order, as they’re wont to do, and that will be enough to be England’s leading run-scorer after the Brisbane Test.”
Wrong, although, as predicted, Atkinson slogged 37 (32) in Perth, and Carse got 39* in Adelaide, so I got that aspect right.
Also, there was a point in the series where Mitchell Starc had scored more runs than every English batter not named Joe Root, so the spirit of the prediction was broadly there.
Verdict: Too cheeky to give myself half a point? Absolutely. Wrong. Zero points.
Hot Take 4: The Rain In Sydney Is A Bigger Threat To Australia Winning 5-0 Than England Winning A Test
For the first three Tests, this one looked spot on. I was also right that it would rain in Sydney, with a draw looking eminently possible in this ongoing Test.
However, the absolute lottery of a Boxing Day pitch ensured England picked up at least a consolation victory.
Verdict: Wrong, but nearly.
Hot Take 5: Jamie Will Win The Battle of The Smiths
“Jamie Smith will score more runs than Steve Smith this series (both will score a lot) and end as England’s leading run-scorer. By the end of this series, the average fan will consider Jamie Smith the best wicketkeeper-batter in Test cricket.”
I could not have been more wrong. Jamie Smith has had a disastrous series, averaging just 23.1 with the bat and looking shaky at times with the gloves, while also consistently finding ways to hit balls down fielders throats that have no business being hit down fielders throats.
So far in Test cricket, Jamie Smith has been dismissed 30 times. 23 of these dismissals have been caught (76.66%).
To put that into context, Alistair Cook is the man who has been dismissed caught the most in Test cricket, being out caught 181 times out of 275 dismissals, or 65% of the time. Joe Root has been dismissed caught the second most often in Test cricket, and falls this way 62% of the time. Sachin is third, and was dismissed caught 57% of the time. Kohli was at 68%. Smith’s captain, Ben Stokes, is dismissed caught 63% of the time in Test cricket. His coach, Brendon McCullum, was out caught 60% of the time. Harry Brook, whom I thought might be similar to Smith, is also at 60%. Broadly, then, sitting somewhere between 55% and 65% of your dismissals being caught is about the norm. 70+% is much rarer.
Some of the closest comparisons I can find to Jamie Smith’s % of caught dismissals are John Wright (72%), Darren Bravo (72%), and Kusal Mendis (70%). The difference, quite obviously, is that Wright and Bravo were opening batters, and Mendis spent most of his career batting at 3 and 4. I would hazard a guess that a fair percentage of these caught dismissals were behind the wicket against the new ball.
Smith, on the other hand, has spent his career batting at 6 and 7, so far, and, while some of his caught dismissals have come behind the wicket, he has made a habit of picking out fielders, too. However, there are some more direct parallels to Smith, in the form of Rishabh Pant, who is also dismissed caught 76% of the time in Test cricket, and Adam Gilchrist, who was out this way 72% of the time. Obviously, playing as an attacking-minded wicketkeeper-batter down the order means you are more likely to be out caught, often chasing quick runs while batting with the tail.
However, it isn’t just that Smith is out caught a lot, but the method of these dismissals. Yesterday’s shot off Marnus was clearly the worst of the lot, and genuinely one of the worst I’ve seen in a long time, but I can scarcely remember another top-order batter who hits as many balls in the air that simply don’t need to be hit in the air as Jamie Smith. It’s sometimes hard to believe how often he chips the ball in the air through midwicket without even trying to hit it to the boundary. Either a short cover or a short midwicket (if not both) should be standing items for Smith.
I don’t quite know how to quantify this, but I’d guess that, when Pant and Gilchrist are dismissed caught, 95% of the time it’s either behind the wicket or looking for a boundary. With Smith, there seems to be an inordinate amount of balls hit in the air without really looking to hit a boundary. The perfect example is his dismissal off a no-ball from Green yesterday, where he spooned some catching practice to Marnus at cover, while he also holed out to deep midwicket in Perth, and played a shot that made Rishabh Pant look like Einstein in Adelaide to find deep mid-on. If this series has proven anything, it is that there are compulsive hookers, and then there’s whatever Jamie Smith is.
To give myself some slight credit, there is now a clear candidate for the best wicketkeeper in the world following this series, it just happens to be Smith’s opposite, Alex Carey.
Verdict: As wrong as I could have been.
Hot Take #6: Usman Khawaja Will Be Out of the Team Before Boxing Day
It depends on how literal you want to be.
Technically, Khawaja was out of the team before Boxing Day, after missing the Gabba Test. He just came back into it, too.
However, I did also say this: “By the Boxing Day Test, Usman Khawaja’s Test career will be over.”
Verdict: I’m giving myself the point on a technicality, but feel dirty about it.
#7. Nathan Lyon Will Be The Series’ Leading Wicket Taker
“More than anything, I think this because he might be the only bowler who plays all five Tests.”
Could not have been more wrong if I had tried. Not only was Lyon nowhere near being the series leading wicket taker, and not only did he only feature in two Tests, but he also barely bowled in one of them.
It counts for less than zero now, but when I came to write this piece initially, I swear I had Starc instead of Lyon, but thought it didn’t count as a hot enough take to predict him as the series’ leading wicket taker.
Verdict: Wrong. Bring back spin.
Hot Take #8: Marnus Labuschagne & Travis Head Will Take More Wickets Than Any English Spinner
“And that number will be less than five.”
Marnus has one wicket. Head none.
The English spinners (Jacks and Bethell) have exactly five.
I regret my initial phrasing; I should have said five or fewer, rather than less than five.
Verdict: I kinda want to give myself half a point, but a blind pug could have predicted the English “spinners” would take an amount of wickets that could be counted on one hand.
Hot Take #9: Both Teams Will Be Bowled Out For Under 100 At Least Once
“Given the respective shaky top orders, this seems safe enough.
Bonus: It will happen in the same Test, and/or Australia will still win after being bowled out for less than 100.”
Not quite, but I got this one about as close as I could have hoped to. Australia were bowled out for 132 twice and still won in Perth. England were bowled out for 110 and still won in Melbourne. Both teams were bowled out for 132 or less in Melbourne.
Verdict: That’s surely worth half a point.
Hot Take #10: The Australian Media Will Tell The Team To ‘Play Harder’ (Or Similar)
“At least once throughout this series, an Australian commentator/columnist/former player will call on the team to ‘play harder’, ‘get tougher’, or it will otherwise be inferred that the team is too soft.”
Nailed it. Now, to be fair, this could be a standing item for every series Australia plays for the remainder of time, and I would be correct 98% of the time.
Even still, may I direct you to Greg Chappell’s recent article:
If the essence of that headline isn’t ‘get tougher’, I don’t know what is.
Like shooting fish in a barrel.
Verdict: Spot on.
Hot Take #11: Ollie Pope Will Score More Runs In One Innings Than The Rest of the Series Combined
Not quite, but again, I was bloody close.
Pope ‘only’ scored 36.8% of his runs in one innings. He scored 46 runs in his first innings at Perth, then 79 runs in his next five innings combined.
Verdict: Like many of these, I feel I’ve gotten the spirit of this prediction correct, if not the exact details. I’m claiming another half a point.
Final Total: 3½ out of 11.
Is that good? Given there’s nothing to compare it to, and I won’t do another one of these until the next Ashes, there’s absolutely no way of knowing.
Hopefully, it proved I know at least some things about cricket, some of the time, though!
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