Australia’s climate double game is a betrayal of the Pacific

By Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics

In June 2026, Australian quarterly oil and gas exploration spending hit a 10-year high. In truth, this was hardly a surprise. For years, the Climate Action Tracker - which my Climate Analytics team helps run - has warned Canberra its energy policies are ‘insufficient’ to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement objectives. Why should 2026 be any different?

Because Australia promised to lead by example. Having fought hard to serve as the COP31 President of Negotiations at the meeting to be hosted in Antalya, Turkey, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pledged to ‘accelerate practical action and investment to keep global temperatures to safer limits and help build resilience to climate impacts’.

As lead negotiator for COP31, Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen understands that unless Australia delivers for the Pacific this year, some bonds may be broken for good.

However, there are limits to what Mr Bowen can achieve in isolation. Many of the decisions that Australia should be taking to prove its climate commitments are not just hot air can only be taken by his boss - and Prime Minister Albanese’s term in office has been marked by words that proclaim climate concern and deeds that prolong fossil fuel extraction.

The Albanese government has approved 36 new, expanded or extended coal, oil and gas projects with lifetime pollution exceeding 6.5 billion tonnes of CO₂-e — about 500 times bigger than the annual emissions of all Pacific small island states combined – despite the government’s stated climate commitments and ‘renewable energy superpower’ rhetoric.

Meanwhile, handouts to the fossil fuel industry continue to soar, growing 47% from 2022/23 to 2025/26. The diesel rebate subsidy amounted to about $10.8 billion in 2025/26, nearly matching the budget of the entire Royal Australian Air Force, and the same order of magnitude as the Commonwealth’s total contribution to every public school in the country.

This year we learned Australia gets more tax from beer than its gas exports. So keen is the government to prop up its fossil fuel exports that it is choosing not to collect an estimated $17bn a year of tax revenues, according to the Australia Institute. At a time when half of Australians are missing out on healthcare they need because they can’t afford it, this annual multi-billion donation to fossil fuel companies is truly extraordinary.

Australia is a world leader in rooftop solar (22GW at last count) and household batteries. But the rollout of renewable energy is one of the few bright spots. Net emissions in 2025 were about 4% higher than in 2022 when the Albanese government came to power. And solar panels cannot mask the greenlighting of the oil, gas and coal sectors which are blocking efforts to phase down the polluting energy sources heating our planet.

Australia has signed a series of security agreements with Pacific partners in recent years that all claim to regard climate change as an urgent and severe threat. This year the 6 July ‘Veitacini Treaty’ with Fiji commits the countries to work on ‘emerging threats’. The 29 June Nakamal deal with Vanuatu labels climate change as an ‘existential threat.’ Separate agreements with the Solomon Islands and Tonga commit Australia to working with Pacific partners in tackling the climate crisis.

Warm words. Reassuring words. But just words - because the reality of Australia in 2026 is a government that says one thing in their capitals or at a UN climate summit, and does something else when it’s in Canberra.

To prove he intends to deliver on his stated COP31 ambitions, Mr Albanese should start by acting on the commitment his government made in April this year at the Santa Marta conference in Colombia. There, Australia was one of more than 50 governments committing to draw up a national roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels. Developing such a plan for Australia and publishing it before COP31 would be a good start.

If Australia fails the Pacific in 2026, it cannot and should not be shocked if the Pacific fails to heed its entreaties in the future and seeks other alliances - ones that Canberra may find less to its liking. The diplomatic fallout if Australia betrays its smaller cousins does not bear thinking about.

In 2013, while engaged in the diplomatic push towards the Paris summit that would agree the 1.5°C limit for global warming, the famed Marshall Islands foreign minister Tony de Brum said: ‘We realise that it’s an election time and these issues are tossed back and forth, but regardless of who leads Australia, we will look to them for action.’

Tony is sadly no longer with us, but his words, wisdom and courage resonate to this day. The Pacific still looks to Australia for action. At the moment it sees very little, and the clock is ticking. Time is running out to limit global warming to 1.5°C, and time is running out for Australia to prove real leadership in protecting its Pacific neighbours, friends and family from the devastating consequences of climate change. Every fraction of a degree counts - and so does every single tonne of fossil fuel Australia extracts and burns.

Bill Hare is the CEO of Climate Analytics and a senior IPCC climate scientist