Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI 0.00%↑) reports their Q2 2026 on Thursday, August 6 at 4:30pm ET.
In a few days, the stock has sharply reversed since its lows under $80 a share and is exploding 14% today as the market appreciates Iran diplomacy, falling oil, and absent selling pressure after the Situational Awareness implosion.
We’ve been covering AAOI 0.00%↑ since $53/share and have frequently cited it as one of the most asymmetrical AI stocks long term. It peaked at a roughly 4x position for us when it surpassed $200, and more recently has given up much of those gains. Even with a sharp rebound, the stock is off its ATH by roughly 50%.
If you own AAOI stock, it is critical you know exactly what to expect on the earnings call, because this is a business still early in its inflection.
In this article we’re going over exactly what you need to understand going into this week’s set up.
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Management has said on four consecutive earnings calls that customers want more 800G and 1.6T transceivers than AOI can physically build. In May they put a number on it. Real demand this year is $1.4 to $1.5 billion against a revenue guide of “over $1.1 billion”.
That leaves one open question. Can they bring capacity online fast enough to convert those orders into revenue?
H1 2026 was guided to be roughly a third of the year. The 2nd half carries everything:
new Texas and Taiwan capacity,
the 800G ramp going vertical,
first 1.6T shipments, and
the profit inflection.
So, Thursday is the first stress test on whether that back half is on schedule.
This means that the Q2 numbers themselves are close to irrelevant but there are three things that matter:
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