World-Renowned Energy Consultant and Keynote Speaker
Earth s history over the last 4.5 billion years—from volcanic upheavals and drifting continents to the evolution of climate—has been shaped by a simple thermodynamic reality: Earth is hot and space is cold. Like every hot object, our planet continuously loses heat as it moves toward equilibrium. The atmosphere, oceans, continents and carbon cycle are not separate stories
The world is experiencing the largest oil supply disruption in modern history, yet crude prices show remarkably little urgency. Flows from the Persian Gulf have fallen by at least 10 million barrels per day from normal levels of roughly 20 million. Disruptions have also spread to the Red Sea and Black Sea, while Ukrainian attacks
A little more than 200 years ago, the French physicist Joseph Fourier recognized a mystery. According to simple physics, Earth should be as cold as the Moon. Fourier calculated Earth s energy balance (Figure 1). About one-third of incoming solar energy is reflected back into space by clouds, the atmosphere, and bright surfaces such as ice.
Temperature is the foundation of every discussion about climate. Everything else—causes, consequences, projections, and policy—depends on understanding how Earth s temperature has changed. Beginning with the temperature record keeps the discussion anchored in observations rather than opinions. The chart below puts recent warming in the context of the past thousand years. Global temperature has…
I ve been thinking a lot lately about why climate change is so difficult to discuss calmly. For some, it is the defining challenge of our time. For others, it is exaggerated or even a hoax. How can intelligent, well-intentioned people look at the same evidence and reach such different conclusions? For me, the starting point
The climate debate is consumed by arguments over causes and proposed solutions while largely missing the question that matters: Can civilization survive a much warmer world? Temperatures have already reached levels not seen for at least 100,000 years. Civilization—and the agriculture that supports it—emerged only after the last ice age, during the Holocene s unusual period
A friend called me and said he had never been more confused by oil prices. I knew exactly what he meant. Physical markets looked tight. Shipping through Hormuz was disrupted. Inventories were falling. The geopolitical risk was obvious. And yet oil prices were drifting lower. My answer surprised him. I told him I thought the
I thought I’d heard it all until I listened to Rob Hopkins describe leading audiences on imaginary time-travel journeys to a future where humanity has done everything right. After taking some 15,000 people there, he says they invariably return describing a quieter, greener, happier world. Absurd though it sounds, the exercise reveals something profound. We
A man without convictions, without habits, without traditions. He had no plan. Yet he alone could justify what had to be done through his ideal of glory and grandeur, his insane self-adulation, his boldness in crime, and his frankness in lying. That was Leo Tolstoy describing Napoleon Bonaparte in War and Peace. The parallels to Donald
Faith is an island in the setting sun. But proof is the bottom line for everyone, Paul Simon wrote in 1990. Or is it? Steven Spielberg s latest film, Disclosure Day, centers on a decades-long government cover-up of extraterrestrial contact. Authorities don t believe humanity can handle the truth. Then a whistleblower obtains what believers have always demanded:
Jeff Currie argues that the world is drifting toward the largest commodity shock since COVID. Yet market prices suggest that traders still view the Hormuz crisis as a temporary geopolitical scare rather than the kind of physical supply disruption capable of reshaping economies and supply chains. His comments reflect a widely held view among analysts
A deep belief in progress lies at the heart of modernity. The assumption is that more technology, more growth, more efficiency, and more freedom will steadily improve human life. Yet that faith is increasingly inconsistent with the experience of both the material and psychological lives of many humans. For a long time, the progress narrative