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The Hat Tip

Reporting, analysis and predictions about current affairs, especially US, UK, Israel. Politics, extremism, a little science

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Israel's 2026 election: The story so far...

The first in a series of newsletters covering the upcoming Israeli general election

A tale of two (identical) slips of the tongue

When Joe Biden called Zelenskyy "Putin" it was a global story that helped end his 2024 run. When Trump did the same this week, it barely registered.

What we learned from a fake IDF shirt

How an image of WHCA shooter Cole Allen in an IDF shirt went viral and captured online narratives

The 2024 Presidential election: How close is it?

The polls say it’s close. That doesn’t mean it IS close, but it means we don’t know any bet

The most interesting small political parties in the 2024 UK general election

A selection of smaller and lesser-known parties contesting the election.

Predicting the death of the Metaverse

An unpublished article sees the light of day

Israel's Judicial Reform: Misunderstanding Democracy

Thoughts on the Israeli government's plans to neuter the Supreme Court

What if the Tories are wiped out?

Everyone knows that polls narrow, right?

Locked out of Twitter

An attacker somehow disabled the two-factor authentication for my Twitter account, logged in, and seems to have changed the email address and ph…

Pile-ons, Responsibility and the Sin of Sodom

A few months ago, Helen Lewis wrote on Twitter:

Twitter's Free Speech Musquarade

Elon Musk claims he wants absolute free speech on Twitter. That'd be a nightmare, but I'm not buying it

Putin's next move: ending the sanctions by any means necessary

After the battle for Ukraine, Russia's foreign, intelligence and security policy will be devoted to smashing the coalition that imposed crippling sanctions

Convoys a-coming

Some thoughts about the plans for Canada-style convoys to converge on Washington DC

Covid and the Tree of Knowledge

Has trying to protect society from the pandemic led to an over-emphasis on personal risk? And what's that got to do with the Garden of Eden?

Is Boris Johnson's Party Almost Over?

The Downing Street parties have removed Boris Johnson's teflon coating. What will stick now?

The Legacy of January 6 and the Ongoing Coup

Has the United States had its last democratic election for President?

It could have been so much worse: America got lucky on Jan 6

The January 6 Capitol riot was a disaster, but it was almost much worse. A look at some of worst-case scenarios that were narrowly avoided.

From Election Day to Jan 6: Inside the MAGA Mind

Exploring the mindset of Trump's most hardened supporters in the weeks before the January 6 attack

Is Omicron 'mild'? We don't know yet

Despite a widespread belief, we have no idea whether the Omicron variant induces milder disease than other variants. It's too early to say

Covid Conspiracy theorists: A spotters' guide

Categorising Covid conspiracy theorists. You can do this at Thanksgiving, but don't tell your antivax relatives.