How I built LeadTruffle's Internal AI Assistant
How I built LeadTruffle's internal AI assistant with brokered tool discovery, progressive evidence loading, approval-gated mutations, provider fallbacks, and scenario evals.
Aaron Decker (enjoyer of technology)
Did you accelerate the formation of technocapital today?
Latest posts
The ChatGPT Moment in Humanoid Robotics
Why the humanoid robotics trade is not yet analogous to ChatGPT, and why public-market exposure still looks cleaner through semiconductors than pure-play robot companies.
How to Identify Technocapital Gravity Wells
A market-cap and revenue-growth framework for spotting technocapital gravity wells before they dominate the next decade.
The Biotechnology Renaissance Driven by AI
A draft map of why AI may be starting a new biotechnology cycle: protein design, AI drug discovery, automated labs, longevity, and the bottlenecks that still matter.
Fixing React Lazy Load Chunk Errors with Vite and Cloudflare Pages
A writeup on stale React.lazy dynamic import errors in a Vite app on Cloudflare Pages, why the first 404/reload fix was not enough, and the versioned R2 asset system that actually fixed deployment skew.
Big AI Lab Revenues Projected Out from May 2026 to 2035 in Takeoff Scenarios
Projecting big AI lab revenues from May 2026 through 2035 under takeoff scenarios.
May 2026 Update to the AI Bottlenecks Trade
A May 2026 update on AI bottleneck trades across memory, CPUs, neoclouds, datacenter capacity, and photonics.
Omakase Approaches to SaaS in 2026
A short note on why SaaS products in the agentic coding era need more opinionated, service-heavy, omakase-style product design instead of endless flexibility.
How to Handle Malformed JSON from LLM Responses in TypeScript
LLMs return invalid JSON all the time — markdown code blocks, trailing commas, smart quotes, unquoted keys. I open-sourced a zero-dependency TypeScript package to fix it.
The AI-Friendly Tech Stack I Like Right Now
Notes on the current stack I like for building with AI: TypeScript, Postgres, tRPC, React, Vite, Supabase hosting, and lambda-style backends.
The State of AI Inference and Running Models at Home
A look at the current landscape of local AI inference: the hardware, the software, and whether running models at home is actually practical in 2026.
When Does the Music Stop on MAG7 Capex?
Projecting the maximum sustainable debt and capex spending each hyperscaler can support, and when the pace of datacenter buildouts will hit physical and financial limits.
The state of AI investing: Jan 2026 edition
My survey of the current state of AI in terms of investing in January 2026.
Who will have the largest single AI datacenter clusters over the next 2 years?
A practical forecast (with caveats) of which orgs are most likely to run the biggest single-site AI clusters by end of 2026 and end of 2027.
AI datacenters in space and the growth of space companies
Current state of space companies plus orbital/space-based compute, power/thermal constraints, and what it could mean for space industry growth.
AI 2030: projections and predictions
AI inference revenue projections and predictions through 2030.
Is the Magnitude of AI Capex Risky?
Exploring whether the unprecedented capital spend on AI infrastructure is a bubble risk or a rational investment cycle.
The Macro Financial Cyberpunk Future
A macro overview of debt/GDP, rates, inflation, and stablecoin-driven Treasury demand - and why mega-cap valuations now operate as weapons in an emerging financial cyberpunk future.
Parasitic AI Text Viruses
Parasitic AI spiral personalities appear to be able to bootstrap themselves from snippets of text and spread on the internet.
The Value of Information at the Edges of AI Knowledge
The concept of Esoteric Data value - How the ubiquity of AI access has shifted information economics from the center to the periphery of global knowledge
The Singularity Already Happened for Dogs and They Seem Fine
Exploring how dogs have already experienced their own technological singularity through domestication and what we can learn from their adaptation
Stop blackpilling, stop dooming, forget p(doom), and learn to love building GPT wrappers
Why pessimistic AI doom scenarios are counterproductive and how embracing practical AI applications and building simple GPT-powered tools can be more valuable than endless speculation about existential risks.
It's 2025 But Is It 1995 or 1998?
Exploring parallels between today's AI boom and the dot-com era - are we in the early excitement phase or approaching a bubble burst?
Trend Reversal - Developed Economies Poised to Reap Greater AI/Automation Benefits
Comparing Vietnam to Japan while Exploring the countryside in Đà Lạt. Why developed economies like Japan will benefit more from AI and robotic automation compared to developing economies like Vietnam, leveraging existing infrastructure and efficiency.
My Thoughts on AI Progress and Alignment (April 2025)
Reflecting on Scott Alexander's AI 2027 paper and my current views on AI progress and the alignment problem.
Making the product sing
your b2b saas needs to sing to users like never before. But also it's easier than ever before.
Hallucination Yield or LLM Market Premium?
Exploring the concept of "Hallucination Yield" in large language models like ChatGPT and its potential to create a market premium.
New Technologies and Promising Companies for 2024
A list of new technologies and promising companies for 2024. Assessing the current state of the market.
Information Gradients Lead to Technocapital Sinks
Find new technologies before they are discovered by the market.
Creating Potently Agentic Individually Aligned Models
Lack of agency is the biggest problem with people attempting to use AI tools.
The human credulity defense is in finite supply.
The more content you consume, the less you are able to critically evaluate it.
How I built Bounty's internal customer service tools using Retool
The Semantic Search Engine and Unsupervised Learning Powering Saymore.ai
Evenly spreading scheduled job load across hourly time buckets
Divide & Conquer - Musk's Attention Hack for Startup Founders
Discover how startup founders can harness the power of polarization, drawing inspiration from Musks's attention-grabbing tactics to thrive in today's fragmented attention economy.
Attention in the Western Hemisphere is a Gaussian Beam
A Gaussian Beam only has one point of maximum focus, but when it is brought the bear upon a single point it's power is it's full potential
Bounty's Engineering Org Guiding Principles
Some guidelines I wrote down to help introduce new engineers to how I want the Bounty team to operate and ship code for the business.
UUIDs are so much better than autoincrementing ids and it's not even close
A year and a half ago we started building a startup and I chose to use UUIDs as primary keys and it turned out to be such a good choice.
Organizational Hierarchy as a Hidden Markov Model - For Sales
Thinking about modeling large organizations through the lens of a hidden markov model to get to a "yes" in the sales process.
Building a (software) engineering organization one year in.
Lessons learned, pain points, and my developing management philosophy.
Bureaucracy navigation as a service startup ideas
Trying to define whole categories of software related to automating bureaucracy and why they are good businesses.
Concerned about the world? Ask GPT-3!
What does the AI oracle completion API have to say about the current state of things in the world?
Sobol's Daemon is Alive
Comparing some common sci-fi tropes to forces of decentralization that actually exist.
Doing A Good Code Review Should Be Simple
I talk about why it's a good idea to use a checklist with code reviews and how subjective PR sizes when it comes to code.
The Great American Melt Up
I talk about the last 5 years and next 5 years looking at it through the lens of the 1920s and 1930s.
An Introduction To Ultra Long Term Trend Following
I explain how ultra long term trend following could work.
Wait For The Crash And Pick Up The Pieces
I talk about how to buy into emerging technology trends by avoiding the hype cycles.
All Markets Are A Dark Forest
Examples of the Dark Forest idea of markets in both the stock market and in crypto markets.
Predicting What Will Happen in 2021
At this point the possibilities diverge so wildly it really is quite fascinating.
Testing A Simple "Buy The Dip" Alpaca System (4 Months In)
I put a very simple buy the dip system live a few months ago against Alpaca to see what would happen.