Showing posts with label adapt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label adapt. Show all posts

the genius in all of us

is an excellent book by David Shenk, subtitled why everything you've been told about genetics, talent and intelligence is wrong (isbn 978-184831218-0). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
We're better at stuff because we've figured out how to become better. Talent is not a thing; it's a process.
We do not inherit traits directly from our genes. Instead we develop traits through the dynamic process of gene-environment interaction.
In truth, the [word] 'intelligence' has become a mere vocal sound, a word with so many meanings that finally it has none. [Charles Spearman]
Stability does not imply unchangeability. [Michael Howe]
In 1932, psychologists Mandel Sherman and Cora B. Key discovered that IQ scores correlated inversely with a community's degree of isolation.
Talent is not the cause but the result of something.
People make a great mistake who think that my art has come easily to me. Nobody has devoted so much time and thought to composition as I. [Mozart]
Heritability is a population average, meaningless for any individual person. When someone says that heritability of height is 90 per cent, he does not and cannot mean that 90 percent of my inches come from genes and 10 percent from my food. He means that variation in a particular sample is attributable to 90 percent genes and 10 per cent environment.
Genes don't directly cause traits; they only influence the system.
Genes are probabilistic rather than deterministic. [Michael Rutter]
We have far more control over our genes - and far less control over our environment - than we think.
What would be really interesting for people to see is how beautiful things grow out of shit. [Brian Eno]
The brain circuits than moderate a person's level of persistence are plastic - they can be altered. They key is intermittent reinforcement.


mind and nature

is an excellent book by Gregory Bateson (isbn 1-57273-434-5). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
If you want to understand mental processes, look at biological evolution and conversely if you want to understand biological evolution, go look at mental processes.
How is the world of logic, which eschews "circular argument," related to a world in which circular trains of causation are the rule rather than the exception?
Perception operates only on difference. All receipt of information is necessarily the receipt of news of difference, and all perception is necessarily limited by threshold. Differences that are too slight or too slowly presented are not perceivable.
The universe is characterized by an uneven distribution of causal and other types of linkage between its parts; that is, there are regions of dense linkage separated from each other by regions of less dense linkage.
We should define "stability" always by reference to the ongoing truth of some descriptive proposition.
Notoriously it is very difficult to detect gradual change because along with our high sensitivity to rapid change goes also the phenomenon of accommodation. Organisms become habituated. To distinguish between slow change and the (imperceptible) unchanging, we require information of a different sort; we need a clock.
Stability may be acheived either by rigidity or by continual repetition of some cycle of smaller changes, which cycle will return to a status quo ante after every disturbance.
Every given system embodies relations to time, that is, was characterized by time constants determined by the given whole. These constants were not determined by the equations of relationship between successive parts but were emergent properties of the system.
The shape of what it deposits is determined by the shape of the previous growth.
What characterizes those adaptations that turn out to be disasterous, and how do these differ from those that seem to be benign and, like the crab's claw, remain benign through geological ages?
Above all, in sexual reproduction, the matching up of chromosomes in fertilization enforces a process of comparison. What is new in either ovum or spermatozoon must meet with what is old in the other, and the test will favour conformity and conservation. The more grossly new will be eliminated on grounds of incompatibility.
It is very easy to fall into the notion that if the new is viable, then there must have been something wrong with the old. This view, to which organisms already suffering the pathologies of over rapid, frantic social change are inevitably prone, is, of course, mostly nonsense. What is always important is to be sure that the new is not worse than the old.

fun with feedback frequency

I'm currently reading Brain of the Firm, by Stafford Beer. On page 36 he writes:

The outcome is startling ... ... the total system is dominated, not by the forward network, but by the feedback network ... The output signals will be of greater 'purity' than we had any right to expect.

The word feedback caught my eye.
Feedback is a key principle of complex adaptive systems.
Feedback is also one of the 4 values of eXtreme Programming.
Feedback also gets several mentions in the official Scrum Guide.
So I've been playing around with Feller's walk (named after William Feller) some more...

Feller's Walk

Each Feller's walk is 1000 steps long, and at each step I flip a fair coin.
As I walk I keep a running total (starting at zero):
  • adding one each time I flip a head
  • subtracting one each time I flip a tail
What will the total look like as the walk progresses?
Here's the plot of the step (x-axis) against the total (y-axis) during one simulated walk.


It starts at a total of zero on the far left and wanders along, edging upwards when a head is thrown, edging downwards when a tail is thrown, and ending at about -26 indicating that overall there were 487 heads and 513 tails (487-513=-26, 487+513==1000).

Apparently, most people's intuition is that the total will hover around zero.
But it doesn't.
You cannot rely on randomness to correct the problems that randomness creates.
Without constraints variance will accumulate.
If the total happens to be +24 the coin isn't going to throw more tails for a while to try to balance things up.
Without feedback the coin has no memory.

To help see this I simulated 5000 walks and plotted the frequency of the total (y-axis) against the total (x-axis) at various points along the walks:
  • after 10 steps in gold
  • after 100 steps in blue
  • after 1000 steps in red
  • I chop the x-axis to +- 2 standard deviations

step freq[0] max
abs(total)
std.dev
10 1204 -10 3.19
100 405 36 10.15
1000 121 140 31.71

Over all the walks, at the 10th step:
  • the total was zero 1204 times (5 heads, 5 tails, 5-5=0, 5+5=10)
  • the total farthest from zero was -10 (0 heads, 10 tails, 0-10=-10, 0+10=10)
  • the standard deviation of the total was 3.19
Over all the walks, at the 100th step:
  • the total was zero 405 times (50 heads, 50 tails, 50-50=0, 50+50=100)
  • the total farthest from zero was 36 (68 heads, 32 tails, 68-32=36, 68+32=100)
  • the standard deviation of the total was 10.15
Over all the walks, at the 1000th step:
  • the total was zero 121 times (500 heads, 500 tails, 500-500=0, 500+500=1000)
  • the total farthest from zero was 140 (570 heads, 430 tails, 570-430=140, 570+430=1000)
  • the standard deviation of the total was 31.71
The further along the walk I progress, the less likely my total is to be zero.
Without constraints variance will accumulate.

Once again, with feedback

Every Nth step, instead of flipping the coin, I look at the total and:
  • if the total is negative (more tails than heads) I pretend I've flipped a head, and add one to the total.
  • if the total is positive (more heads than tails) I pretend I've flipped a tail, and subtract one from the total.
This feedback increases the likelihood of the total staying nearer to zero.
The smaller the value of N, the greater the effect.

Estimating feedback effectiveness

Using the simulation I can measure how good (or bad) people's estimates are of how effective feedback is. For example, I can:
  • run the simulation with some feedback (N==10 say) and display the results
  • gather estimates with no feedback (N==never) of, eg
    • freq[0], or
    • max abs(total), or
    • std.dev, etc
  • run the simulation with no feedback and see how the actual results compare.
Or
  • run the simulation with no feedback and display the results
  • gather estimates of the least feedback needed to, eg
    • triple freq[0], or
    • quadruple max abs(total), or
    • half std.dev, etc
  • run the simulation with various amounts of feedback and see how the actual results compare.
I've put the simulation source up on https://github.com/JonJagger/Fellers-1000-coin-tosses.
The simulation runs directly from this URL https://rawgithub.com/JonJagger/Fellers-1000-coin-tosses/master/fellers.html so you can try out various values of N if you want to before reading on...

A little feedback goes a long way

Here's 5000 simulations of a 1000 step walk with N==25.
That means, that every 25th step instead of flipping the coin, the simulation nudges the total towards zero as described above.


step freq[0] max
abs(total)
std.dev
10 1379 -10 2.97
100 553 32 8.04
1000 387 84 15.18

The effectiveness of one feedback nudge every 25 steps amazes me.
  • freq[0] tripled from 121 to 387
  • max abs(total) shrank from 140 to 84
  • std.dev halved from 31.71 to 15.18
Startling! Just as Stafford Beer said.
Let's hear it for feedback!

adapting

Back to quotes table-of-contents

From The Aesthetics of Change
In the [predator/prey] example, the battle over food and territory between two species is only one half of the story. The larger cybernetic picture is that the battle is a means or process of generating, maintaining, and stablizing an ecosystem.

From Surfing the Edge of Chaos
The defining feature of a complex adaptive system is its ability to learn.

Recent study of evolution, both in the natural world and in computer based complex systems, has demonstrated the surprising result that the presence of parasites in a system accelerates evolution dramatically.

From Growing a Business
Businesses that grow too fast or in the wrong way overwhelm the adaptive capacity of the people who work there.

From Sense and Respond
Adaptiveness… cannot just be added on to an organisation's existing capabilities: the organisation itself must become adaptive.

From Adapt - why success always starts with failure
Tight coupling means the unintended consequences proliferate so quickly that it is impossible to adapt to the failure or to try something different.

From The Gift of Time
Jerry warns us that when a system that continues to change or that is in a changing environment is subjected to a fixed set of tests, it will inevitably over-adapt to those tests, leading to a higher probability of severe or surprising failures in the field. [James Bach]

From The Art of War
Victory in war is not repetitious, but adapts its form endlessly.

From How Buildings Learn: Chapter 5 - Magazine Architecture: No Road
The specious old-box is old because it is profoundly adaptive.

From The Silent Language
Theodosius Dobzhansky, the great human geneticist, once observed that life was the result of neither design nor chance but the dynamic interaction of living substance with itself. He meant that life, in a changing environment, places such strains on the organism to adapt that, if this does not take place constantly, the organism as a species dies out. ... Different cultures are analogous to different species in the sense that some of them survive whilst others perish. Some are more adaptive than others. The study of change, therefore, is the study of survival.

From How to use Conscious Purpose Without Wrecking Everything
What is involved is not simply survival of the fittest, but survival of the fitting-in-est.

Evolution always means Co-evolution.

From Brain Rules
Charles Darwin noted… the brains in wild animals were 15 to 30 percent larger than those of their tame, domestic counterparts.

From Agile Development in the Large
It is important that instead of the process being adopted it is adapted.

From Leverage Points
The most stunning things living systems and social systems can do is to change themselves utterly by creating whole new structures and behaviours. In biological systems that power is called evolution. In human society it's called technical advance or social revolution. In systems lingo, it's called self-organization.

From Obliquity
Evolution is smarter than you are.

patterns of connection

When I read a good book I highlight passages that catch my attention. I copy a few of the highlights into a book-snippet.

This photo is of page 75 of my battered copy of The Secrets of Consulting. The yellow highlights are from the first time I read the book, the pink ones from the second time, the blue ones the fourth time. At the bottom right is one sentence outlined in pen and marked with an eight. That tells me I marked that sentence on my eighth re-read. (I've run out of new colours.)

I find it better to re-read a really good book 10 times rather than read 10 average books once each. It's the really good books that provide new insights each time I re-read them. Marking highlights in this way allows me to go back in time. What topics caught my attention in early readings? What topics in later readings? I can explore the differences. Of course, part of that newness is that I'm a different person each time I re-read. I'm older. A sentence triggers a new thought based an experience I've had since my last read. Also, I remember more of the book each time. For example I can see on my seventh re-read I marked this
The toughest problems don't come in neatly labeled packages. Or they come in packages with the wrong labels.
and I underlined the words labeled and labels because I'd consciously connected them to The Label Law (on page 64).
The name of the thing is not the thing.
Underneath that I can see I've written "The Dread Pirate Roberts". That's a connection to a scene from one of my favourite films, The Princess Bride. Westley is in the fire swamp explaining to Princess Buttercup how he has become the Dread Pirate Roberts...
Westley: I, as you know, am Roberts.
Buttercup: But how is that possible, since he's been marauding twenty years and you only left me five years ago?
Westley: I myself am often surprised at life's little quirks...
Westley: Well, Roberts had grown so rich, he wanted to retire. So he took me to his cabin and told me his secret. "I am not the Dread Pirate Roberts," he said. "My name is Ryan. I inherited the ship from the previous Dread Pirate Roberts, just as you will inherit it from me. The man I inherited it from was not the real Dread Pirate Roberts, either. His name was Cummerbund. The real Roberts has been retired fifteen years and living like a king in Patagonia." Then he explained the name was the important thing for inspiring the necessary fear. You see, no one would surrender to the Dread Pirate Westely.
John Gall (who was born in 1925), recently gave a fabulous talk called how to use conscious purpose without wrecking everything. He said:
As the years go by, the brain begins to put the dots together, to make conscious links between one experience and another, between one historical fact and another. A person begins to experience one’s entire life history as an integrated narrative.
This integrating capacity of the human brain is perhaps its most marvelous achievement. And you have to be old—usually fifty or sixty years old—to reach that point where it dawns on your conscious mind that that’s what’s going on. Unless you are already in your coffin, your mind is always a work in progress, an ongoing process of continual growth and greater differentiation, richer and more far-reaching correlations.
He chatted about how much his mind had changed during the first 40 years of his life compared to the most recent 40 years of his life. He said the latter change was far greater.
Isn't that amazing. Fantastic.
I'm looking forward to getting older!
I'm looking forward to seeing more and more patterns of connection.

Taiichi Ohno's workplace management

is an excellent book by Taiichi Ohno (isbn 978-0-07-180801-9). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
When I was a middle school student in the old system, we studied the Chinese classics, and during this class we learned from the Analects of Confucius. In these writings Confucious says, "The wise will mend their ways" and "The wise man should not hesitate to correct themselves."... Confucius was saying that we should change gracefully... I think his words mean that in the end it is not good if you hold onto your ideas too strongly and try stubbornly to justify them.
When we said we would set up a centralized grinding operation, one experienced worker said, "No, we tried that during the war, but it failed. That's why we do it the way we do now." [I said] "I did not see it fail during the war. Show me again how it fails. If I am persuaded by this, I will let you continue doing it the way you do it now."
If you asked me, "What is the most important part of production control?" I would say it is to limit overproduction.
The kanban was a slip that indicated how many pieces they were coming to get, so that if they were going to take ten parts this became a production instruction slip directing the production line to make ten pieces.
When lot sizes are small, you need to do changeovers more frequently.
Stopping the line causes a great loss, so this forces us to think, "How do we keep them from stopping the line?" and this results in more and more quality kaizen.
You can only really tell what is better based on results.
Accounting cannot do any cost reduction... The shop floor reduces inventory. This money goes to the bank... Instead, accounting thinks it just needs to allocate cost savings targets.
There is something called standard work, but standards should be changing constantly. Instead, if you think of the standard as the best you can do, it's all over. The standard is only a baseline for doing further kaizen. It is kaiaku if things get worse than now, and it is kaizen if things get better than now. Standards are set arbitrarily by humans so how can they not change?
You must create a standard for comparison.
Drop a nut once and pick it up. Working at the average time is like trying to catch the nut halfway because letting it drop all the way down takes too long... There is no such thing as average value in this world.
Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the old masters, seek instead what these masters sought. [Matsu Basho 1644-1694]
Once he asked me how the terms kaizen and kairyo (reform) were differentiated in the West. I said that while kaizen means to make improvements by using brains, kairyo means to make improvements by using money, and that in the West, most managers only think of improvement in terms of money. [Massaki Imai]
Let the flow manage the processes, and not let management manage the flow.
The aim of kanban is to make troubles come to the surface and link them to kaizen activity. I tell people, "Let idle people play rather than do unnecessary work."
The production line that never stops is either excellent or terrible.
Costs exist to be reduced, not to be calculated.

driving in India

Patterns of Software by Richard Gabriel is one of my favourite books. On page 60 he quotes Christopher Alexander (who is talking about D'Arcy Thompson)
What Thompson insisted on was that every form is basically the end result of a certain growth process. ... Thompson was saying that everything is the way it is today because it is the result of a certain history - which of course includes how it got made. At the time I read this I did not really understand it very well; whereas I now realize that he is completely right.
I'll use an example to try and illustrate this idea of, as Jerry Weinberg puts it, things being the way they are because they got that way. The example is driving in India.

The most obvious thing that strikes me when I visit Bangalore or Chennai is the almost constant horn tooting. Is tooting your horn a formally taught behaviour, or is it learned behaviour I wondered. I asked some friends who live in India. They said it is not something you're taught. It is learned behaviour. I find this fascinating. It could mean that at some point in past tooting was common, but not endemic, and that for some reason or reasons it reached a tipping point and became endemic. What are those reasons? Why did they prevail? Do those reasons apply to all Indian cities or are some quieter than others? Do the reasons shed any light on whether endemic horn tooting will or won't ever go away?

A pattern I started to sense during my most recent trip is when a slow vehicle is stuck behind an even slower vehicle (a bus for example) and toots the horn as if to say "move over". The bus slowly moves over, the first vehicle passes it, and as it goes by toots twice, the first toot to say "thank" and the second toot to say "you". I never got the sense the tooting was overtly aggressive. I think drivers are tooting mostly to tell other drivers where they are. Considering the apparent chaos everyone is remarkably relaxed! The tooting has become part of a system of communication.

Naturally, once certain behaviours get a foothold, other behaviours adapt to them, helping to reinforce the co-evolving system. Drivers of slow vehicles start to rely on other drivers tooting them if they want to pass. They politely ask people to toot them by painting "Blow horn" signs on the backs and sides of their trucks. Artistic individuals spot an opportunity and, for a small fee, offer to paint ever more elaborate "Horn please" signs. Before you know it Volkswagen pre-fits cars it sells in India with slightly louder electromechanical horns. Now some truck drivers don't move over unless they're tooted and you have to toot if you want to pass. Viola. A co-evolving, intertwingled, history. Things are the way they are because they've got that way.

Large potholes in the road are common. Roads in India don't really have left lanes and right lanes so much as worse lanes and better lanes. I certainly don't recall seeing any white-line lane-dividers. What looks like total lane switching "indiscipline" is again simply sensible adaptive driving.

If traffic moved very fast the frequent lane switching would be downright dangerous. But traffic doesn't move fast. One reason is simply that lots of the traffic is old. Driving a new car in a sea of old cars could be quite dangerous (because of the brakes). Perhaps that's partly why the roads are regularly punctuated with pretty severe speed-bumps (actual ones as well as the pot holes). The speed-bumps keep your speed low even if you have a new car. So why buy a more expensive new car? Things are the way they are because they've got that way.

The traffic is also very varied. There are trucks, buses, masses of 3 wheeler took-tooks, huge numbers of motorbikes, push-bikes, push-trikes, pedestrians, carts, cows, you name it. As the traffic constantly switches lanes spaces of varying sizes constantly appear. No matter what the size of the space, there is always some form of road user just the right size to fill it. The variety encourages lane switching and the lane switching encourages variety. It gets that way.

Another reason traffic crawls is sheer numbers. More than a billion people Iive in India. There's a lot of traffic because there's a lot of people. And a lot of those people are young people. According to Wikipedia more than 50% of the Indian population is below the age of 25! The average middle-class home in a city such as Chennai is about 20 times the average middle class salary. Combine that with 10%+ interest rates and it's easy to see that a lot of people cannot afford to live in the city where they work. With so many young people, a hot climate, and a urban army of forced commuters it's no wonder there are so many motorbikes and buses, and increasingly, small cars. Things are the way they are because they got that way.

And a system that has got a certain way will, all things being equal, want to stay that way. A system will resist change. That's virtually a definition of a system. Only by resisting does it sit still long enough to be recognisable as something at all!

agile development in the large

is an excellent book by Jutta Eckstein (isbn 978-0932633576). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
Quick feedback should be the first thing you introduce.
It is important that instead of the process being adopted it is adapted.
Starting with really short cycles seems to help implement the change to an agile process. If the cycles are short it is very difficult for the whole team to fall back into its old habits.
Learning and change processes are part of each other. Change is a learning process and learning is a change process.
Every agile process contains the following subtle steps
(1) reflection (awareness)
(2) learning
(3) change.
A plan is nothing; planning is everything. [Eisenhower]
If a project is on time and in budget it doesn't mean it was a successful project, but a successful estimate.
Methodologies do not produce skilled developers.
Stability is more negative than it is thought to be. [To stabilize something is to kill it]
A book is always a prevented dialogue.

the lean startup

is an excellent book by Eric Ries (isbn 978-0-670-92160-7). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
What if we found ourselves building something that nobody wanted? In that case what did it matter if we did it on time and on budget?
I've come to believe that learning is the essential unit of progress for startups.
If you cannot fail, you cannot learn.
Qualitative learning is a necessary companion to quantitative testing.
Pay no attention to the eight people behind the curtain.
When I could think of nothing else to do, I was finally ready to turn to the last resort: talking to customers.
That which optimizes one part of the system necessarily undermines the system as a whole.
Large batches tend to grow over time.
The paradoxical Toyota proverb "Stop production so production never had to stop."
We routinely asked new engineers to make a change to the production environment on their first day... They would ask, "What will happen to me if I accidentally disrupt or stop the production process?" ... We told new hires, "If our production process is so fragile that you can break it on your very first day of work, shame on us for making it so easy to do so." If they did manage to break it, we immediately would have them lead the effort to fix the problem as well as the effort to prevent the next person from repeating the mistake.
Switching to validated learning feels worse before it feels better... the problems caused by the old system tend to be intangible, whereas the problems of the new system are all too tangible.


Andy and the crusty cobs

My friend Andy works on the railways. He used to work as a master baker at one of the big supermarkets. One of the items he baked was Crusty Cobs.

Clearly customers can only buy Crusty Cobs if there are some Crusty Cobs actually on the shelves. So the supermarket also employed a bakery supervisor to check Crusty Cob availability. (Naturally the supervisor was paid more than Andy. After all he was the supervisor.) Every day, at 4pm, the bakery supervisor arrived, clutching his clipboard, and counted the Crusty Cobs on the shelves; one, two, three, four, five, six, seven... Andy got praised if there was good Crusty Cob availability and chastised if there wasn't.

So Andy adapted. He baked extra batches of Crusty Cobs but waited to put them on the shelves until shortly before 4pm. Crusty Cob availability, as recorded by the supervisor, was very good. Customers wanting Crusty Cobs before 4pm were often disappointed.

A short while later as well as counting the Crusty Cobs on the shelves (always at 4pm), the supermarket also started counting the number of Crusty Cobs actually sold at the tills during the day. Now Andy also got praised if lots of Crusty Cobs were sold.

So Andy adapted. As well as sticking the Crusty Cob labels on the Crusty Cobs, he also printed extra Crusty Cob labels and stuck them on some Soft Rolls (same price). After all, who looks at the labels? So Crusty Cob sales, as recorded at the tills, were always very good. The number of Crusty Cobs actually bought by customers was somewhat less.

Not long after, the supermarket noticed a drop in the sales of Soft Rolls. They asked Andy not to bake so many Soft Rolls.

So Andy adapted. He baked less Soft Rolls, labelled them correctly, and put the extra Crusty Cob labels on the French Sticks. Customers wanting Soft Rolls, at any time, were often disappointed.

Goodhart's Law states:

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Or, more colloquially:

Targets are where measures go to die.


surfing the edge of chaos

is an excellent book by Richard Pascale, Mark Millemann, and Linda Gioja (isbn 0-609-80883-4). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
As a general rule, adults are much more likely to act their way into a new way of thinking than to think their way into a new way of acting.
Recent study of evolution, both in the natural world and in computer based complex systems, has demonstrated the surprising result that the presence of parasites in a system accelerates evolution dramatically.
The average corporation lives only half as long as the average human being.
The defining feature of a complex adaptive system is its ability to learn.
As the process unfolded, employees repeatedly asked Shapiro to give a more definitive shape to his "vision". He refused to do so. "It will only get in the way," he countered. "People will take it too seriously."
Because we thought our job was to persuade, too often we forgot to listen.
How a system connects with its "external" world is also a key source of that system's health.
Feedback is the means by which a system talks to itself.
Bacteria require three years to circumvent the latest antibiotic; viruses typically outmaneuver vaccines within a year.
Critical to the impact of the [National Training Center] experience is a cadre of 600 instructors, one of whom is assigned to every person with leadership or supervisory responsibilities. These "observers/controllers," as they are called, shadow their counterparts through day after twenty-hour day of intense activity, provide personal coaching, and facilitate a team debriefing called an After Action Review (AAR).
If you awaken with sore muscles, how you feel depends a lot on whether you think you're getting the flu or you believe you are reaping the benefits of a good workout the day before.

the silent language

is an excellent book by Edward T. Hall (isbn 0-385-05549-8). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
Culture hides much more than it reveals, and strangely enough what it hides, it hides most effectively from its own participants.
Interaction has its basis in the underlying irritability of all living substance.
Culture is saturated with both emotion and intelligence.
Theodosius Dobzhansky, the great human geneticist, once observed that life was the result of neither design nor chance but the dynamic interaction of living substance with itself. He meant that life, in a changing environment, places such strains on the organism to adapt that, if this does not take place constantly, the organism as a species dies out.

Different cultures are analogous to different species in the sense that some of them survive whilst others perish. Some are more adaptive than others. The study of change, therefore, is the study of survival.
An often noted characteristic of culture change is that an idea or a practice will hold on very persistently, apparently resisting all efforts to move it, and then, suddenly, without notice, it will collapse.
The idea of looking at culture as communication has been profitable in that it has raised problems which had not been thought of before and provided solutions which might not otherwise have been possible.
We say, "I'll see you in an hour." The Arab says, "What do you mean, 'in an hour'? Is the hour like a room, that you can go in an out of it?" To him his own system makes sense: "I'll see you before one hour," or "I'll see you after one week." We go out in in the rain. The Arab goes under the rain.
...we all hold an illusion about talking, an illusion that talking is quite untrammeled and spontaneous and merely 'expresses' whatever we wish to have it express. This illusory appearance results from the fact that the obligatory phenomena within apparently free flow of talk are so completely autocratic that the speaker and the listener are bound unconsciously as though in the grip of a law of nature. [Benjamin Whorf, Linguistics as an Exact Science]
Complete lack of congruence occurs when everything is so out of phase that no member of a culture could possibly conceive of himself creating such a mess.
Many artists... are credited with "creating" new patterns. Yet most artists know that what greatness they have lies in being able to make meaningful statements about what is going on around them. They say what others have tried to say but say it more simply, more directly, and more accurately, more incisively and with greater insight.
Talking about them... changes our relation with them. We move into an active and understanding correspondence with those aspects of our existence which are all too frequently taken for granted or which sometimes weigh heavily on us. Talking about them frees us from their restraint.

the book of tea

is an excellent book by Kakuzo Okakura (isbn 0-486-200070-1). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
One of the cardinal concepts of Oriental thought, from even before the time of Confucius, has been the belief that alternating, diametrically opposed forces govern the universe, like day and night.
Those who cannot feel the littleness of great things in themselves are apt to overlook the greatness of little things in others.
The art of life lies in a constant readjustment to our surroundings.
We must know the whole play in order to properly act our parts; the conception of totality must never be lost in that of the individual.
Truth can be reached only through the comprehension of opposites.
It is much to be regretted that so much of the apparent enthusiasm for art in the present day has no foundation in real feeling.
We classify too much and enjoy too little.

Being wrong

is an excellent book by Kathryn Schulz (isbn 978-0-06-117604-3). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
One extremely good way to become wedded to a theory you just idly expressed is to have it contradicted... from noncommittal to evangelical in a matter of milliseconds.
We take our own certainty as an indicator of accuracy.
The instant an implicit assumption is violated, it turns into an explicit one.
When we ask people to look for something specific they develop a startling inability to see things in general.
The genius of statistics was that it did not ignore errors, it quantified them. [Laplace]
In ancient Indo-European, the ancestral language of nearly half of today's global population, the word 'er' meant "to move", "to set in motion", or simply "to go."
It is all too common for caterpillars to become butterflies and then maintain that in their youth they had been little butterflies.
the stakes of our mistakes.
Realizing that we are wrong about a belief almost always involves acquiring a replacement belief at the same time.
"fallor ergo sum" (I err, therefore I am) [St Augustine]
When other people reject our beliefs, we think they lack good information. When we reject their beliefs, we think we possess good judgement.
As with so many systems, the strengths of inductive reasoning are also its weaknesses. For every way that induction serves us admirably, it also creates a series of predictable biases in the way we think...
When a framework serves us well... we call it brilliant, and call it inductive reasoning. When it serves us poorly, we call it idiotic, and call it confirmation bias.
Being wrong can be funny; other people being wrong can be very very funny.
Without some kind of belief system in place, we wouldn't even know what kinds of questions to ask, let alone how to make sense of the answers.

Adapt - why success always starts with failure

is an excellent book by Tim Harford (isbn 978-0-349-12151-2). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
Cross the river by feeling for stones [Deng Xiaoping]
Accepting trial and error means accepting error.
Darwin, a meticulous observer...
The art of success is to fail productively.
Complexity is a problem only in tightly coupled systems.
Make sure you know when you've failed, or you will never learn.
What Palchinsky realised was that most real-world problems are more complex than we think. They have a human dimension, a local dimension, and are likely to change as circumstances change. His method for dealing with this could be summarised as three 'Palchinsky principles'
  • seek out new ideas and try new things
  • when trying something new, do it on a scale where failure is survivable
  • seek out feedback and learn from your mistakes as you go along
If we are to take the 'variation' part of 'variation and selection' seriously, uniformly high standards are not only impossible but undesirable.
When John Nagl served in Baghdad in 2003, he found that while his young inexperienced soldiers had the authority to kill, he - a major with a doctorate and a decade of experience - didn't have the authority to print his own propaganda pamphlets to counteract the clever PR campaign that the local insurgents were running.
Speciation - the divergence of one species into two separate populations - rarely happens without some form of physical separation.
Tight coupling means the unintended consequences proliferate so quickly that it is impossible to adapt to the failure or to try something different.
The first thing Timpson does when it buys another business is to rip out the electronic point-of-sale machines (there are always EPOS machines) and replace them with old fashioned cash registers. 'EPOS lets people at head office run the business', explains John Timpson. 'I don't want them to run the business.'

John Timpson describes one instance where he couldn't buy half-price happy hour drinks at a hotel bar, because midway through giving his order, the hour ended and the bar's computerised sales system refused to allow the half-price offer to be applied.

Timpson's company training manual describes the twenty easiest ways to defraud the company, making it clear that the company understands the risks it is running and trusts its employees anyway - and many people respond to being trusted by becoming more trustworthy.
A central point of the corporation, as a legal structure, is that it is supposed to be a safe space in which to fail. Limited liability companies were developed to encourage people to experiment, to innovate, to adapt - safe in the knowledge that if their venture collapsed, it would merely be the abstract legal entity that was ruined, not them personally.
Fail better. [Samuel Beckett]

The gift of time

is an excellent book edited by Fiona Charles (isbn 978-0-932633-75-0). As usual I'm going to quote from a few pages:
Jerry warns us that when a system that continues to change or that is in a changing environment is subjected to a fixed set of tests, it will inevitably over-adapt to those tests, leading to a higher probability of severe or surprising failures in the field. [James Bach]
Complexity isn't an attribute; it's a relationship. [Michael Bolton]
When feedback is offered in the spirit of improving a working relationship, it's all positive. [Esther Derby]
In my experience, if you have a passion for something and want to take responsibility for making it happen you can always find an existing group, or find people around you who are willing to form a new group to get it off the ground. [Willem van den Ende]
People are relentlessly themselves. [Naomi Karten]
In experiential learning, students are fully engaged, and as a result, they determine what they learn, not the instructors or presenters. [Naomi Karten]
...problems that look technical. [James Bullock]
Both PSL and aikido teach practiced awareness of oneself, the situation, and others. [James Bullock]
Shugyo is to step onto the mat exactly when there is every excuse not to. [James Bullock]
I have become enormously skeptical of simple cause-and-effect explanations of any system behavior. [Tim Lister]
And maybe most important of all (and I've been a consultant for about thirty years now), I thank Jerry for helping me think about system dynamics and change. [Tim Lister]
In the technology industry, we spend so much time trying to control machines that we start thinking like machines. [Jonathan Kohl]

How Buildings Learn: Chapter 5 - Magazine Architecture: No Road

How Buildings Learn by Stewart Brand is a really great read about the underlying processes that govern the evolution of buildings over time.

Architects offered themselves as providers of instant solutions, and only the look of a building gives instant gratification.

In the 1980's, 80 percent of the ever-growing post-construction claims against architects were for leaks. Domes leaked, always. Worst of all, domes couldn't grow or adapt. What's good about 90-degree walls: they don't catch dust, rain doesn't sit on them, easy to add to; gravity, not tension holds them in place. We are 90 degrees to the earth.

The specious old-box is old because it is profoundly adaptive.

Instead of steady accumulation, the business of contemporary architecture is dominated by two instants in time. One is the moment of go-ahead...The other is the moment of hand-over.

All the design intelligence gets forced to the earliest part of the building process, when everyone knows the least about what is really needed. A lot of the time now you see buildings that look exactly like their models. That's when you know you're in trouble.

There is real misunderstanding about whether buildings are something dynamic or something static.

Architects think of a building as a complete thing, while builders think of it and know it as a sequence.

The race for finality undermines the whole process. In reality finishing is never finished.

Unchallenged practices persist for decades.

Admiration is from a distance and brief, while love is up close and cumulative.

The needed conversion is from architecture based on image to architecture based on process.