Babban taron

Babban taron

Iri	aukuwa
Participant (en)	super-spreader (en)

A superspreading event (SSEV) wani taron ne wanda Cutar da ke yaduwa fiye da yadda aka saba, yayin da wani abu mai yaduwa da ya kamu da cutar an san shi da superspreader. A cikin mahallin cutar da ke tattare da mutum, mai rarraba shine mutum wanda ya fi kamuwa da wasu, idan aka kwatanta da mutumin da ya kamu da cutar. Irin waɗannan masu yaduwa suna da damuwa sosai a cikin ilmin annoba.

Some cases of superspreading conform to the 80/20 rule, where approximately 20% of infected individuals are responsible for 80% of transmissions, although superspreading can still be said to occur when superspreaders account for a higher or lower percentage of transmissions. In epidemics with such superspreader events, the majority of individuals infect relatively few secondary contacts. The degree to which superspreading contributes to an epidemic is often quantified by the t₂₀ metric, which denotes the proportion of infections attributable to the most infectious 20% of the population.

Ma'anar

Kodayake akwai ma'anoni masu yawa game da abubuwan da suka faru, an yi ƙoƙari don bayyana abin da ya cancanci zama taron mai yawa (SSEV). Lloyd-Smith et al. (2005) sun bayyana yarjejeniya don gano wani babban taron mai rarrabawa kamar haka:

1. kimanta yawan haihuwa mai tasiR, R, don cutar da yawan mutanen da ake tambaya;
2. gina R Poisson tare da matsakaicin R, wanda ke wakiltar kewayon da ake tsammani na Z saboda stochasticity ba tare da bambancin mutum ba;
3. bayyana SSEV a matsayin duk wani mutum mai kamuwa da cuta wanda ya kamu da cuta fiye da R">Z ⁽ⁿ⁾ wasu, inda Z (n" shine kashi na farko na rarrabawar Poisson (R).

Wannan yarjejeniya ta bayyana kashi 99 na SSEV a matsayin lamari wanda ke haifar da kamuwa da cuta fiye da yadda zai faru a cikin kashi 99% na tarihin kamuwa da cutar a cikin yawan jama'a.

A lokacin barkewar SARS-CoV-1 2002-2004 SARS daga China, masu ilimin cututtukan cututtuka sun bayyana mai yaduwa a matsayin mutum tare da akalla yaduwar cutar takwas.[1]

Superspreaders na iya ko bazai nuna alamun cutar ba.

Ana iya rarraba SSEVs a cikin abubuwan 'yanci' da 'keɓewa'. An san jana'izar ga ilmin annoba a matsayin abubuwan da suka faru na yau da kullun. Musamman inda bukukuwan jana'izar suka haɗa da hulɗa da wanda ya mutu, watsawar jana'izar na iya faruwa. Kungiyar Red Cross na Duniya ta ba da shawarar ayyukan da yanzu aka sani da "kusa mai aminci da daraja" a lokacin annobar kwayar cutar Ebola ta Yammacin Afirka don rage yaduwar jana'iza.

A watan Afrilu na 2020 Jonathan Kay ya ruwaito dangane da annobar COVID-19: