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2018 California gubernatorial election

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2018 California gubernatorial election
← 2014
November 6, 2018
2021 (recall) →
Turnout63.28% (Increase32.34 pp)
 
Candidate Gavin Newsom John H. Cox
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 7,721,410 4,742,825
Percentage 61.95% 38.05%
Newsom:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Cox:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Jerry Brown
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Gavin Newsom
Democratic

The 2018 California gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of California, concurrently with elections for the rest of California's executive branch, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jerry Brown was ineligible to run for a third consecutive term due to term limits. The race was between the incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and businessman John H. Cox, a Republican, who qualified for the general election after placing first and second in the June 5, 2018 primary election.

Newsom won in a landslide, with 62% of the vote, the biggest victory in a gubernatorial race in California since Earl Warren won re-election in 1950, and the biggest victory for a non-incumbent since 1930.[1] The election also marked the first time in 40 years since Orange County had voted for the Democratic candidate since Jerry Brown won it in 1978, and the first time Democrats won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state's history. Newsom was sworn in on January 7, 2019.

Candidates

[edit]

A primary election was held on June 5, 2018. Under California's non-partisan blanket primary law, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party. Voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers – regardless of party – advance to the general election in November, regardless of whether a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election.

Democratic Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Republican Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Peace and Freedom Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Green Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Christopher Carlson, puppeteer[4]
  • Veronika Fimbres (write-in)[36]
  • Josh Jones, author, geologist, solar electric designer[4]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Independent (no party)

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ↑ American Solidarity Party does not have ballot access. Desmond Silveira (ASP) appears on ballot as "No party preference".[60]

Primary election

[edit]

From the latter half of 2017, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom was widely seen as the favored front runner for the top two primary. Businessman John Cox and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa had both been running closely behind Newsom to obtain the second place spot. However, in late 2017, as more prominent Democrats entered the race, Villaraigosa saw his polling numbers slip out of competition with Cox. This mainly left the race between Newsom and Cox, with a third place free-for-all between Allen and Villaraigosa.

Endorsements

[edit]
Travis Allen (R)

U.S. representatives

State-level officials

Individuals

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

  • California Republican Assembly[68]
John Chiang (D)

Federal elected officials

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Organizations

Individuals

Delaine Eastin (D)

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Organizations

Josh Jones (G)

Individuals

Desmond Silveira (ASP)

Individuals

Organizations

Antonio Villaraigosa (D)

U.S. representatives

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Organizations

Individuals

Nickolas Wildstar (L)

Individuals

Organizations

Zoltan Istvan (L)

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

% support01020304050603/1/20171/28/20184/22/20185/24/2018AllenChiangCoxEastinNewsomVillaraigosaOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the first round of the 2...
View source data.
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Travis
Allen
(R)		 John
Chiang
(D)		 John
Cox
(R)		 Delaine
Eastin
(D)		 Gavin
Newsom
(D)		 Antonio
Villaraigosa
(D)		 Other /
Undecided
Competitive Edge Research & Communication[130] May 29–30, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 10% 4% 23% 5% 31% 13% 15%[a]
UC Berkeley[131] May 22−28, 2018 2,106 ± 3.5% 12% 7% 20% 4% 33% 13% 11%[b]
Emerson College[132] May 21–24, 2018 600 ± 4.2% 11% 10% 16% 4% 24% 12% 23%[c]
YouGov[133] May 12–24, 2018 1,113 ± 4.0% 10% 8% 17% 4% 33% 9% 16%[d]
Competitive Edge Research & Communication[134] May 20–22, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 9% 7% 22% 8% 26% 12% 17%[e]
SurveyUSA[135] May 21, 2018 678 ± 6.1% 12% 10% 17% 2% 33% 8% 16%[f]
Public Policy Institute of California[136] May 11–20, 2018 901 ± 4.1% 11% 9% 19% 6% 25% 15% 16%[g]
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[137] April 18 – May 18, 2018 517 ± 4.0% 5% 6% 10% 3% 21% 11% 43%[h]
Gravis Marketing[138] May 4–5, 2018 525 ± 4.3% 8% 9% 23% 4% 22% 19% 15%[i]
SmithJohnson Research (R-Cox)[139] April 26–27, 2018 533 ± 4.2% 13% 4% 20% 4% 36% 8% 16%[j]
SurveyUSA[140] April 19–23, 2018 520 ± 5.5% 10% 9% 15% 1% 21% 18% 25%[k]
UC Berkeley[141] April 16−22, 2018 1,738 ± 3.5% 16% 7% 18% 4% 30% 9% 16%[l]
J. Wallin Opinion Research/Tulchin Research[142] March 30 – April 4, 2018 800 ± 3.7% 9% 9% 16% 5% 26% 7% 28%[m]
Public Policy Institute of California[143] March 25 – April 3, 2018 867 ± 4.4% 10% 7% 15% 6% 26% 13% 23%[n]
SurveyUSA[144] March 22–25, 2018 517 ± 5.0% 7% 9% 11% 3% 22% 14% 34%[o]
David Binder Research (D-Newsom)[145] March 16–21, 2018 1,750 – 13% 9% 16% 2% 29% 7% 24%[p]
Public Policy Institute of California[146] March 7–13, 2018 1,706 ± 3.4% 10% 6% 14% 5% 28% 12% 25%[q]
David Binder Research (D-Newsom)[147] March 1–5, 2018 1,000 – 10% 13% 16% 7% 26% 12% 16%[r]
David Binder Research (D-Newsom)[148] January 31 – February 4, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 4% 11% 7% 4% 30% 11% 33%[s]
Global Strategy Group (D-Chiang)[149] January 27 – February 1, 2018 500 – 7% 10% 10% 5% 28% 14% 3%[t]
Public Policy Institute of California[150] January 21–30, 2018 1,705 ± 3.2% 8% 9% 7% 4% 23% 21% 28%[u]
Tulchin Research/Moore Information[151] January 21–28, 2018 2,500 ± 2.0% 8% 9% 10% 6% 29% 11% 26%[v]
SurveyUSA[152] January 7–9, 2018 506 ± 4.4% 9% 5% 4% 1% 19% 10% 53%[w]
UC Berkeley[153] December 7–16, 2017 672 ± 3.8% 9% 5% 9% 5% 26% 17% 29%[x]
Public Policy Institute of California[154] November 10–19, 2017 1,070 ± 4.3% 6% 9% 9% 3% 23% 18% 31%[y]
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[155] October 27 – November 6, 2017 1,070[z] ± 4.0% 15% 12% 11% 4% 31% 21% 6%[aa]
UC Berkeley[156] August 27 – September 5, 2017 1,000 ± 4.0% 9% 7% 11% 4% 26% 10% 33%[ab]
SmithJohnson Research (R-Cox)[157] July 27–30, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 10% 7% 14% 3% 25% 12% 28%[m]
GSSR (D-Chiang)[158] May 30 – June 5, 2017 602 – – 10% 11% – 26% 12% –
UC Berkeley[159] May 4–29, 2017 1,628 ± 3.3% – 5% 9% 3% 22% 17% 44%[ac]
The Feldman Group (D-Villaraigosa)[160] March 2017 – – – – 22% – 26% 20% –
Notes
  1. ↑ Other 5%, Undecided 10%
  2. ↑ Other 4%, Undecided 7%
  3. ↑ Other 4%, Undecided 19%
  4. ↑ Amanda Renteria (D), Robert C. Newman (R), Shubham Goel (NPP) with 1%, all other candidates 0%, Undecided 13%
  5. ↑ Other 4%, Undecided 13%
  6. ↑ Thomas Jefferson Cares (D), Robert C. Newman (R), Klement Tinaj (D) with 1%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Juan Bribiesca (D), Christopher Carlson (G), Yvonne Girard (R), Shubham Goel (NPP), Robert Davidson Griffis (D), Zoltan Istvan (L), Josh Jones (G), Gloria La Riva (PFP), Peter Yuan Liu (R), Albert Caesar Mezzetti (D), Hakan "Hawk" Mikado (NPP), Amanda Renteria (D), Michael Shellenberger (D), Desmond Silveira (ASP), Jeffrey Edward Taylor (NPP), Johnny Wattenburg (NPP), and Nickolas Wildstar (L) with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  7. ↑ Other 1%, Undecided 16%
  8. ↑ Akinyemi Agbede (D), Robert Davidson Griffis (D), Amanda Renteria (D), and Gloria La Riva (PFP) with 1%; Juan Bribiesca (D), Thomas Jefferson Cares (D), Albert Caesar Mezzetti (D), Michael Shellenberger (D), Klement Tinaj (D), Christopher Carlson (G), Josh Jones (G), Zoltan Istvan (L), Nickolas Wildstar (L), Yvonne Girard (R), Robert C. Newman (R), Shubham Goel (NPP), Hakan "Hawk" Mikado (NPP), Desmond Silveira (ASP), Jeffrey Edward Taylor (NPP), Johnny Wattenburg (NPP) with 0%; Other 0%; Not voting 0%; Undecided 39%
  9. ↑ Albert Mezzetti (D) 2%, Undecided 13%
  10. ↑ Amanda Renteria (D) 0%, Undecided 16%
  11. ↑ Robert Newman (R) 4%, Amanda Renteria (D) 3%, Other 1%, Undecided 17%
  12. ↑ Other 3%, Undecided 13%
  13. 1 2 Undecided 28%
  14. ↑ Other 1%, Undecided 22%
  15. ↑ Robert Newman (R) 3%; Yvonne Girard (R) and Robert Kleinberger* (NPP) with 2%; Daniel Amare* (R), Brian Domingo* (R), Peter Yuan Liu (R), Michael Bracamontes* (D), Juan Bribiesca (D), and Nickolas Wildstar (L) with 1%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Zoltan Istvan (L), Josh Jones (G), Harmesh Kumar* (D), and James Tran* (NPP) with 0%; Other 0%l; Undecided 21%. *Withdrawn.
  16. ↑ Amanda Renteria (D) 2%, Other 6%, Undecided 16%
  17. ↑ Other 1%, Undecided 24%
  18. ↑ Amanda Renteria (D) 4%, Undecided 12%
  19. ↑ Doug Ose* (R) 4%, Other 29%. *Withdrawn.
  20. ↑ Doug Ose* (R) 3%. *Withdrawn.
  21. ↑ Doug Ose* (R) 3%, Someone else 1%, Undecided 24%. *Withdrawn.
  22. ↑ Doug Ose* (R) 4%, Someone else 4%, Undecided 18%. *Withdrawn.
  23. ↑ Robert Newman (R), Doug Ose* (R), Tom Steyer† (D), Peter Thiel† (R), and Steve Westly† (D) with 2%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Daniel Amare* (R), Stasyi Barth* (R), Michael Bracamontes* (D), Juan Bribiesca (D), Brian Domingo* (R), Yvonne Girard (R), Zoltan Istvan (L), Josh Jones (G), Robert Kleinberger* (NPP), Harmesh Kumar* (D), Peter Yuan Liu (R), James Tran* (NPP), and Nickolas Wildstar (L) with 1%; Michael Bilger* (NPP), Andy Blanch* (NPP), Scooter Braun† (D), John-Leslie Brown* (R), David Bush* (NPP), Christopher Carlson (G), Peter Crawford-Valentino* (NPP), Ted Crisell* (D), Grant Handzlik* (NPP), Analila Joya* (NPP), Joshua Laine* (AIP), Chad Mayes† (R), Jacob Morris* (R), Timothy Richardson* (NPP), Boris Romanowsky* (NPP), Michael Shellenberger (D), H. Fuji Shioura* (NPP), Laura Smith* (R), Scot Sturtevant* (NPP), Ashley Swearengin† (R), Klement Tinaj (D), and Frédéric Prinz von Anhalt* (NPP) with 0%; Other with 29%. *Withdrawn. †Hypothetical candidate.
  24. ↑ Other 1%, Undecided 28%
  25. ↑ Other 1%, Undecided 30%
  26. ↑ 1,070 likely primary voters out of 1,504. MoE out of 1,504: ± 3.0. 22% out of 1,504 not voting.
  27. ↑ Other 6%
  28. ↑ Undecided 33%
  29. ↑ David Hadley* (R) 7%, Undecided 37%. *Withdrawn.
Hypothetical polling

with Kevin Faulconer and Eric Garcetti

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John
Chiang
(D)		 John
Cox
(R)		 Kevin
Faulconer
(R)		 Eric
Garcetti
(D)		 Gavin
Newsom
(D)		 Tom
Steyer
(D)		 Ashley
Swearengin
(R)		 Antonio
Villaraigosa
(D)		 Other /
Undecided
UC Berkeley/YouGov[161] March 13–20, 2017 1,000 ± 3.6% 6% 11% 11% 9% 24% 4% – 7% 25%[a]
Public Policy Polling[162] January 17–18, 2017 882 ± 3.3% 2% – 20% 13% 25% 4% 12% 9% 16%[b]
Field Research Corporation[163] October 25–31, 2016 600 – 2% – 16% 7% 23% 5% 11% 6% 30%[c]
Public Policy Polling[164] February 6–8, 2015 824 – 10% – 30% 11% 22% – – 13% 26%[d]

Results

[edit]
County results
  Newsom
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Cox
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Villaraigosa
  •   30–40%
Congressional district results
  Newsom
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Cox
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Villaraigosa
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Non-partisan blanket primary results[165]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gavin Newsom 2,343,792 33.7%
Republican John H. Cox 1,766,488 25.4%
Democratic Antonio Villaraigosa 926,394 13.3%
Republican Travis Allen 658,798 9.5%
Democratic John Chiang 655,920 9.4%
Democratic Delaine Eastin 234,869 3.4%
Democratic Amanda Renteria 93,446 1.3%
Republican Robert C. Newman II 44,674 0.6%
Democratic Michael Shellenberger 31,692 0.5%
Republican Peter Y. Liu 27,336 0.4%
Republican Yvonne Girard 21,840 0.3%
Peace and Freedom Gloria La Riva 19,075 0.3%
Democratic J. Bribiesca 18,586 0.3%
Green Josh Jones 16,131 0.2%
Libertarian Zoltan Istvan 14,462 0.2%
Democratic Albert Caesar Mezzetti 12,026 0.2%
Libertarian Nickolas Wildstar 11,566 0.2%
Democratic Robert Davidson Griffis 11,103 0.2%
Democratic Akinyemi Agbede 9,380 0.1%
Democratic Thomas Jefferson Cares 8,937 0.1%
Green Christopher N. Carlson 7,302 0.1%
Democratic Klement Tinaj 5,368 0.1%
No party preference Hakan "Hawk" Mikado 5,346 0.1%
No party preference Johnny Wattenburg 4,973 0.1%
No party preference Desmond Silveira 4,633 0.1%
No party preference Shubham Goel 4,020 0.1%
No party preference Jeffrey Edward Taylor 3,973 0.1%
Green Veronika Fimbres (write-in) 62 0.0%
No party preference Arman Soltani (write-in) 32 0.0%
No party preference Peter Crawford Valentino (write-in) 21 0.0%
Republican K. Pearce (write-in) 8 0.0%
No party preference Armando M. Arreola (write-in) 1 0.0%
Total votes 6,962,254 100%

Results by county

[edit]

Red represents counties won by Cox. Blue represents counties won by Newsom. Green represents counties won by Villaraigosa.[166]

CountyNewsom %Cox %Villaraigosa %Allen %Chiang %Others %
Alameda53.5%10.6%10.0%4.4%9.6%11.9%
Alpine38.5%24.1%6.7%8.7%10.4%11.6%
Amador21.5%41.8%5.8%15.1%8.0%7.8%
Butte25.6%34.4%5.5%14.5%6.1%13.9%
Calaveras23.3%38.2%5.3%18.1%6.6%8.5%
Colusa13.0%43.3%16.0%16.3%3.6%7.8%
Contra Costa49.9%19.7%8.7%7.4%6.9%7.4%
Del Norte23.4%27.0%3.5%24.8%7.7%13.6%
El Dorado24.5%40.7%5.8%13.9%8.1%7.0%
Fresno16.8%33.7%20.2%14.3%7.6%7.4%
Glenn12.4%48.1%7.9%18.2%3.3%10.1%
Humboldt37.9%22.3%5.0%9.6%6.4%18.8%
Imperial11.8%22.7%31.2%9.8%7.9%16.6%
Inyo22.6%30.7%8.6%15.9%8.7%13.5%
Kern12.1%40.6%13.9%19.9%5.4%8.1%
Kings9.4%36.7%17.0%23.8%6.7%6.4%
Lake37.5%28.4%6.6%12.0%5.0%10.5%
Lassen13.1%41.7%2.1%26.8%6.6%9.7%
Los Angeles32.7%19.6%21.7%5.8%13.2%7.0%
Madera12.8%40.2%15.7%18.9%5.2%7.2%
Marin64.1%12.5%8.2%3.8%5.3%6.1%
Mariposa19.1%34.9%8.2%23.4%6.3%8.1%
Mendocino45.2%17.9%7.8%9.1%5.1%14.9%
Merced18.2%29.7%17.9%16.0%7.3%10.8%
Modoc11.4%49.9%3.0%18.0%3.1%14.6%
Mono31.6%26.1%12.2%12.0%5.0%13.1%
Monterey37.8%19.8%16.8%9.4%6.6%9.6%
Napa46.1%19.4%10.0%9.7%5.5%9.3%
Nevada34.1%25.7%5.9%17.4%7.0%9.9%
Orange24.3%36.3%11.4%11.5%9.0%7.5%
Placer25.7%40.2%5.8%13.1%9.0%6.2%
Plumas26.9%38.5%3.8%15.5%5.7%9.6%
Riverside22.3%34.4%13.7%15.3%7.5%6.8%
Sacramento29.7%26.2%10.7%10.2%14.5%8.7%
San Benito33.6%23.4%13.3%16.0%4.8%8.9%
San Bernardino19.7%33.9%15.2%14.7%9.2%7.3%
San Diego30.5%32.6%10.4%7.5%9.8%9.2%
San Francisco57.5%6.6%9.1%2.2%8.9%15.7%
San Joaquin26.3%31.4%11.1%13.6%9.3%8.3%
San Luis Obispo33.2%29.4%6.8%14.6%7.3%8.7%
San Mateo55.0%13.9%10.4%5.1%7.1%8.5%
Santa Barbara33.8%26.2%12.3%11.5%6.8%9.4%
Santa Clara48.5%13.9%10.9%8.3%7.7%10.7%
Santa Cruz52.4%11.8%11.5%7.0%4.5%12.8%
Shasta16.9%44.3%3.9%19.9%4.5%10.5%
Sierra22.9%35.1%3.7%17.6%7.1%13.6%
Siskiyou23.3%34.5%3.4%18.5%5.0%15.3%
Solano41.6%23.3%8.9%11.3%6.9%8.0%
Sonoma54.6%16.4%8.9%5.5%4.9%9.7%
Stanislaus23.2%31.6%12.3%16.3%7.3%9.3%
Sutter16.4%40.0%8.3%17.4%8.2%9.7%
Tehama13.2%45.4%4.5%21.6%4.7%10.6%
Trinity23.6%31.4%4.7%17.9%5.4%17.0%
Tulare13.9%36.5%16.4%20.4%5.2%7.6%
Tuolumne26.8%37.6%5.7%15.8%5.6%8.5%
Ventura26.7%32.6%13.4%9.1%11.0%7.2%
Yolo31.6%19.9%13.7%7.0%14.6%13.2%
Yuba16.3%39.6%7.6%21.1%6.6%8.8%
Totals33.6%25.5%13.3%9.5%9.5%8.6%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[167] Safe D October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[168] Likely D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[169] Safe D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[170] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[171] Safe D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[172] Likely D November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[173] Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News[174][e] Likely D November 5, 2018
Politico[175] Safe D November 5, 2018
Governing[176] Safe D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ Delaine Eastin (D) and Steve Westly with 2%, Undecided with 21%
  2. ↑ Alex Padilla (D) 3%, Undecided 13%
  3. ↑ Alex Padilla (D) 4%, Steve Westly (D) 1%, Undecided 25%
  4. ↑ Alex Padilla (D) 4%, Undecided 22%
  5. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

[edit]
John H. Cox (R)

Federal officials

U.S. representatives

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Gavin Newsom (D)

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Organizations

Individuals

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
%support01020304050602018/04/042018/09/182018/10/212018/11/04Gavin NewsomJohn CoxOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the second round of the ...
View source data.
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Gavin
Newsom (D)		 John
Cox (R)		 None Other Undecided
Change Research[223][better source needed] November 2–4, 2018 1,108 – 53% 41% – – –
Research Co.[224] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 58% 38% – – 4%
SurveyUSA[225] November 1–2, 2018 924 ± 4.6% 53% 38% – – 9%
Probolsky Research[226] October 25–30, 2018 900 ± 3.3% 47% 37% – – 16%
Thomas Partners Strategies[227] October 25–27, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 55% 42% – – 3%
Gravis Marketing[228] October 25–26, 2018 743 ± 3.6% 55% 35% – – 9%
UC Berkeley[229] October 19–25, 2018 1,339 ± 4.0% 58% 40% – – 2%
YouGov[230] October 10–24, 2018 2,178 ± 3.1% 53% 34% 3% – 10%
Public Policy Institute of California[231] October 12–21, 2018 989 ± 4.2% 49% 38% 2% – 10%
Thomas Partners Strategies[232] October 18–20, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 54% 41% – – 5%
Emerson College[233] October 17–19, 2018 671 ± 4.1% 52% 32% – – 16%
SurveyUSA[234] October 12–14, 2018 762 ± 4.9% 52% 35% – – 14%
Thomas Partners Strategies[235] October 12–14, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 51% 43% – – 6%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[236] September 17 – October 14, 2018 794 LV ± 4.0% 54% 31% – – 15%
980 RV ± 4.0% 51% 30% – – 19%
Thomas Partners Strategies[237] October 5–7, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 54% 42% – – 4%
Thomas Partners Strategies[238] September 28–30, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 50% 45% – – 5%
Thomas Partners Strategies[239] September 21–23, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 53% 42% – – 5%
Vox Populi Polling[240] September 16–18, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 60% 40% – – –
Public Policy Institute of California[241] September 9–18, 2018 964 ± 4.8% 51% 39% 3% – 7%
Thomas Partners Strategies[242] September 14–16, 2018 1,040 ± 3.5% 45% 41% – – 14%
Ipsos[243] September 5–14, 2018 1,021 ± 4.0% 52% 40% – 3% 6%
Thomas Partners Strategies[244] September 7–9, 2018 1,227 ± 3.3% 48% 40% – – 12%
Probolsky Research[245] August 29 – September 2, 2018 900 ± 5.8% 44% 39% – – 17%
Public Policy Institute of California[246] July 8–17, 2018 1,020 ± 4.3% 55% 31% 5% – 9%
SurveyUSA[247] June 26–27, 2018 559 ± 5.9% 58% 29% – – 13%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[248] June 6–17, 2018 767 ± 4.0% 45% 28% – – 27%
J. Wallin Opinion Research/Tulchin Research[142] March 30 – April 4, 2018 800 ± 3.7% 42% 32% – – 26%
Hypothetical polling

with Newsom and Chiang

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 John
Chiang (D)		 Gavin
Newsom (D)		 Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D-Chiang)[149] January 27 – February 1, 2018 500 44% 30% –
Public Policy Polling[164] February 6–8, 2015 824 30% 37% 33%

with Newsom and Villaraigosa

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Gavin
Newsom (D)		 Antonio
Villaraigosa (D)		 Undecided
J. Wallin Opinion Research/Tulchin Research[142] March 30 – April 4, 2018 800 ± 3.7% 38% 21% 41%
Public Policy Polling[164] February 6–8, 2015 824 – 42% 22% 36%

with Villaraigosa and Garcetti

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Eric
Garcetti (D)		 Antonio
Villaraigosa (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling[164] February 6–8, 2015 824 28% 30% 42%

Results

[edit]

Newsom won the general election by the largest margin of any California gubernatorial candidate since Earl Warren's re-election in 1950. In addition to winning the traditional Democratic strongholds of the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County, Sacramento, and North Coast, Newsom performed well in the traditionally swing Central Coast, San Bernardino County, and San Diego County, as well as narrowly winning traditionally Republican Orange County – the latter voting for a Democrat for the first time in a gubernatorial election since Jerry Brown's first re-election in 1978. Cox did well in the state's more rural areas, even flipping Stanislaus County; Stanislaus is the only county that voted for Brown in 2014 but flipped to Cox in 2018. Cox also narrowly won Fresno County and Riverside County in the Inland Empire in addition to handily winning traditionally Republican Kern County in the Central Valley.

2018 California gubernatorial election[249]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Gavin Newsom 7,721,410 61.95% +1.98%
Republican John H. Cox 4,742,825 38.05% −1.98%
Total votes 12,464,235 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

[edit]
County[250] Gavin Newsom
Democratic		 John H. Cox
Republican		 Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # %
Alameda 462,558 80.55% 111,677 19.45% 350,881 61.10% 574,235
Alpine 386 62.76% 229 37.24% 157 25.53% 615
Amador 6,237 35.45% 11,356 64.55% -5,119 -29.10% 17,593
Butte 41,500 46.77% 47,226 53.23% -5,726 -6.45% 88,726
Calaveras 7,765 35.93% 13,845 64.07% -6,080 -28.14% 21,610
Colusa 1,999 34.69% 3,764 65.31% -1,765 -30.63% 5,763
Contra Costa 283,805 68.20% 132,345 31.80% 151,460 36.40% 416,150
Del Norte 3,441 41.32% 4,887 58.68% -1,446 -17.36% 8,328
El Dorado 36,297 40.58% 53,140 59.42% -16,843 -18.83% 89,437
Fresno 124,332 49.08% 128,974 50.92% -4,642 -1.83% 253,306
Glenn 2,424 29.09% 5,908 70.91% -3,484 -41.81% 8,332
Humboldt 33,455 64.49% 18,418 35.51% 15,037 28.99% 51,873
Imperial 20,573 61.67% 12,785 38.33% 7,788 23.35% 33,358
Inyo 3,244 44.67% 4,018 55.33% -774 -10.66% 7,262
Kern 83,507 41.06% 119,870 58.94% -36,363 -17.88% 203,377
Kings 12,275 40.58% 17,976 59.42% -5,701 -18.85% 30,251
Lake 10,869 51.39% 10,280 48.61% 589 2.79% 21,149
Lassen 2,043 22.66% 6,973 77.34% -4,930 -54.68% 9,016
Los Angeles 2,114,699 71.90% 826,402 28.10% 1,288,297 43.80% 2,941,101
Madera 15,037 39.03% 23,488 60.97% -8,451 -21.94% 38,525
Marin 103,671 79.49% 26,750 20.51% 76,921 58.98% 130,421
Mariposa 3,183 38.69% 5,043 61.31% -1,860 -22.61% 8,226
Mendocino 22,152 66.31% 11,255 33.69% 10,897 32.62% 33,407
Merced 30,783 51.99% 28,424 48.01% 2,359 3.98% 59,207
Modoc 820 23.78% 2,628 76.22% -1,808 -52.44% 3,448
Mono 2,706 55.76% 2,147 44.24% 559 11.52% 4,853
Monterey 76,648 65.98% 39,516 34.02% 37,132 31.97% 116,164
Napa 36,513 64.80% 19,834 35.20% 16,679 29.60% 56,347
Nevada 27,985 52.93% 24,882 47.07% 3,103 5.87% 52,867
Orange 543,047 50.14% 539,951 49.86% 3,096 0.29% 1,082,998
Placer 72,270 41.20% 103,157 58.80% -30,887 -17.61% 175,427
Plumas 3,433 37.15% 5,807 62.85% -2,374 -25.69% 9,240
Riverside 319,845 49.81% 322,243 50.19% -2,398 -0.37% 642,088
Sacramento 302,696 58.81% 212,010 41.19% 90,686 17.62% 514,706
San Benito 11,274 56.12% 8,815 43.88% 2,459 12.24% 20,089
San Bernardino 276,874 51.54% 260,379 48.46% 16,495 3.07% 537,253
San Diego 658,346 56.86% 499,532 43.14% 158,814 13.72% 1,157,878
San Francisco 312,181 86.39% 49,181 13.61% 263,000 72.78% 361,362
San Joaquin 101,474 52.19% 92,966 47.81% 8,508 4.38% 194,440
San Luis Obispo 65,117 51.58% 61,137 48.42% 3,980 3.15% 126,254
San Mateo 213,282 75.23% 70,242 24.77% 143,040 50.45% 283,524
Santa Barbara 93,841 60.49% 61,300 39.51% 32,541 20.98% 155,141
Santa Clara 438,758 71.40% 175,791 28.60% 262,967 42.79% 614,549
Santa Cruz 91,523 76.79% 27,665 23.21% 63,858 53.58% 119,188
Shasta 20,256 28.90% 49,825 71.10% -29,569 -42.19% 70,081
Sierra 599 35.93% 1,068 64.07% -469 -28.13% 1,667
Siskiyou 7,218 39.74% 10,946 60.26% -3,728 -20.52% 18,164
Solano 86,694 61.30% 56,627 38.70% 33,067 22.60% 146,321
Sonoma 152,040 72.27% 58,338 27.73% 93,702 44.54% 210,378
Stanislaus 77,220 49.19% 79,751 50.81% -2,531 -1.61% 156,971
Sutter 11,122 36.98% 18,953 63.02% -7,831 -26.04% 30,075
Tehama 5,756 27.55% 15,137 72.45% -9,381 -44.90% 20,893
Trinity 2,250 42.25% 3,075 57.75% -825 -15.49% 5,325
Tulare 42,702 42.82% 57,012 57.18% -14,310 -14.35% 99,714
Tuolumne 9,294 38.93% 14,580 61.07% -5,286 -22.14% 23,874
Ventura 171,729 55.55% 137,393 44.45% 34,336 11.11% 309,122
Yolo 49,759 67.82% 23,611 32.18% 26,148 35.64% 73,370
Yuba 6,903 35.96% 12,293 64.04% -5,390 -28.08% 19,196
Totals7,721,41061.95%4,742,82538.05%2,978,58523.90%12,464,235

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Newsom won 42 of 53 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Cox, including four that elected Democrats.[251]

District Newsom Cox Representative
1st 39% 61% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 72% 28% Jared Huffman
3rd 52% 48% John Garamendi
4th 41% 59% Tom McClintock
5th 70% 30% Mike Thompson
6th 69% 31% Doris Matsui
7th 52% 48% Ami Bera
8th 40% 60% Paul Cook
9th 54% 46% Jerry McNerney
10th 49.5% 50.5% Josh Harder
11th 71% 29% Mark DeSaulnier
12th 87% 13% Nancy Pelosi
13th 90% 10% Barbara Lee
14th 76% 24% Jackie Speier
15th 69% 31% Eric Swalwell
16th 56% 44% Jim Costa
17th 72% 28% Ro Khanna
18th 73% 27% Anna Eshoo
19th 70% 30% Zoe Lofgren
20th 70% 30% Jimmy Panetta
21st 52% 48% TJ Cox
22nd 43% 57% Devin Nunes
23rd 37% 63% Kevin McCarthy
24th 57% 43% Salud Carbajal
25th 51% 49% Katie Hill
26th 57% 43% Julia Brownley
27th 65% 35% Judy Chu
28th 75% 25% Adam Schiff
29th 78% 22% Tony Cárdenas
30th 70% 30% Brad Sherman
31st 57% 43% Pete Aguilar
32nd 65% 35% Grace Napolitano
33rd 68% 32% Ted Lieu
34th 85% 15% Jimmy Gomez
35th 66% 34% Norma Torres
36th 53% 47% Raul Ruiz
37th 86% 14% Karen Bass
38th 65% 35% Linda Sánchez
39th 49.6% 50.4% Gil Cisneros
40th 80% 20% Lucille Roybal-Allard
41st 59% 41% Mark Takano
42nd 41% 59% Ken Calvert
43rd 78% 22% Maxine Waters
44th 81% 19% Nanette Barragán
45th 49% 51% Katie Porter
46th 64% 36% Lou Correa
47th 62% 38% Alan Lowenthal
48th 48% 52% Harley Rouda
49th 51% 49% Mike Levin
50th 41% 59% Duncan Hunter
51st 68% 32% Juan Vargas
52nd 58% 42% Scott Peters
53rd 65% 35% Susan Davis

By city

[edit]