Everyday in Chat I suggest the AI/Semi trade won’t bottom until we all (i’m guilty of this as well) stop asking about them. We also discussed the similarities between the Archigo hedge fund blow up in 2021, and SALP blow up last week, suggesting that the bottom is likely in (doesn’t mean we go back up though…first we’re looking for a retest, higher lows, or breakouts above DT’s.
While I wait, thought we could take a look at a bunch of random stuff….
This is a look at FXI C&H as shown using our newest Stage Analysis tool to give you a quick look at what’s working and what’s not working…By default this one looks at all the S&P subsectors, as well as world indexes.
You can easily go into the settings and drill down, to see what is working and not working within specific thematics …You can get the source code for this screener in the article ‘Sage Analysis’
Here is a link to the Stage Analysis source code
BRK.B Was surprised how well this has held up given their enormous cash hoard. I would have thought Wall St would punish them for missing out on one of the greatest bulls ever
8/8 Update - Beat on revenues and earnings - started buying back their own stock (first purchases in a few years), what does that tell you about value in this market?
ORCL ya,ya I know it’s an AI/Semi play but I haven’t been in this one, nor talked about it ever….I did point out a few weeks ago that we have NEVER spent more than a month below the 233MA ever with the exception of the dot.com crash. This double bottom is an exceptional entry IMO, using that as a stop.
8/8 Update - starting to work, and plenty of runway above
WMT for you bottom feeders, we likely hold the channel (has thus far), and again, this would represent both a good entry/stop for a quality stonk
8/8 Update held, and now above DTL
LLY Just to highlight what we’ve been teaching - When a large TAM market leader is down 20-40% it usually is a great opportunity in hindsight ….This is why we give you all these charts, with all these levels - So you know in advance where you might want to DCA
8/8 Update - flagging
SNOW through the eyes of Stage Analysis
8/8 Update broke out, dashed line above next target
DDOG Just to show what it’s done since Stage transitioned
8/8 Update earnings…3 day rule…still a stage 2 stock fwiw just flagging here IMO
NET Since Stage 2
8/8 Update not the greatest close, look for opportunity on touches on that DTL below
CRWD Since Stage 2
8/8 Update - Continues to make new ATH’s and it’s clear that Cyber security is even more important now with AI and agents everywhere…
PANW Since Stage 2
8/8 Update between CYBR and PANW best of the best in Cyber…
DBC (Commodities fund)
DWAS (Small cap momo)
8/8 Update …break out
SPSV (Small cap value)…*hint* a place to be…
8/8 Update - break out
SOXS (3X bear) ←——*hint* -don’t be this guy - these things are a cancer, and you will NEVER make money with them
8/8 Update ….neverrrrrr
MA Just another example of quality large TAM leader down 20%….
8/8 Update just to show it is Stage 1, and only needs Mansfield RS to reclaim TL (shown at bottom of chart) to become a stage 2 stock
CLOU VS SMH (Software VS Semi)…Still has room to outperform
8/8 Update If/When we close above DTL = be even more aggressive in Software > Semi’s as a focus
EOSE example of an earlier AnnualizeThis pick that almost got there (up 900%), we exited all the way down and exited completely at 6 as management did not deliver..Could it still work in the future? maybe….but i’d rather buy it back at higher prices (after management executed), than ride it to zero …make sense?
PCT This IS a current AnnualizeThis pick that I don’t currently own, as the stock remains a complete hot mess. Management IS executing however, and this band I drew at VPOC is likely a great ‘value’ entry point to start a position
8/8 Update - earnings out, and the longer term opportunity in tact, and qualification wins (P&G and others) protect my downside IMO
MRLN which does autonomous flight Similar to PCT qualifies as an AnnualizeThis value entry, however waiting to confirm that the bottom is in before I enter….stocks that make new lows, make new lows till they don’t
8/8 Updated - I have a starter position
Gold chart with SMH overlayed…I suggested back on June 9th that SMH would likely suffer the same fate as gold, as they were like 5 sigma as gold was back in January….note gold is STILL in a downtrend 7 months later…why I think SEMI’s might be dead money/muted for a while (hope im wrong)
HYD - High yield….Important one that I watch - since a key to the data center buildout is debt…..
8/8 Update (not shown here but DTL on daily breaking out//same as this DTL just clearer to visualize
NKY (Nikkei) Since I dont invest there, I was surprised to see that the index was down 17% at one point….bear flagging here, and since we will be hearing more and more about the BoJ, currency intervention, and their bond market, this along with the USDJPY is something to keep a close eye on. There is still a yen carry trade that likely supports much of our bull market - am just not sure what would actually unwind that - so I watch, and try to listen to smart people
8/8 Update still bear flagging
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