Elephants v Giants, Taiwan without TikTok, and another serving of TACO?

Mōrena subscribers — All 4,003 of you! Last week the number of subscribers ticked over the 4,000 mark, and I’m thrilled to have each and every one of you here as I continue trying to write stories about New Zealand’s place in the world, especially for a New Zealand audience.

Last week I gave two talks in the Wellington region — shout-out to U3A in Lower Hutt and Plimmerton Rotary — and one attendee, from South Africa, came up and told me an African proverb that encapsulated the ‘Between Giants’ concept: “When two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.”

I sure hope we don’t suffer, but I was tickled to hear the saying.

Also, I received a great response to my story about China’s efforts to set up a ground-based space monitoring station in New Zealand, including from this kind reader:

Anna, the story about the Chinese space institute and the monitoring station is the kind of reporting that used to require a foreign desk and now requires one person deciding it matters. Between Giants covers a position New Zealand is actually in, rather than the one commentary assumes.

I thought this was a really important angle to pursue because it shows in a very concrete way how Beijing is trying to gain a foothold in our part of the world — and how we’re wising up to it. Thanks for the feedback.

Also from last week, the visit of Vietnamese leader To Lam and his sizeable delegation to New Zealand (and Australia) was overshadowed by the National Party leadership circus. This was a huge deal and is being viewed very favourably by Vietnam. I’ll come back to this story.

Three things I enjoyed

• I love the NZ International Film Festival so much, as I mentioned last week. I went to the “surprise screening” on Saturday night and boy, was it a surprise. I was excited to see the Korean countryside in the opening scenes, but “Hope,” which was acclaimed at Cannes, quickly turned into the kind of movie I wouldn’t have chosen to see. Still, it was great for audience camaraderie and the stories after. I enjoyed Minotaur last night.

• I enjoyed this story about Gideon Haigh, a veteran journalist who — like me — has turned to Substack and is revelling in the freedom and reader connection it provides. As someone who’s worked in daily journalism for almost 30 years — many of them as a foreign correspondent, when I had to be on 24/7 — I am slowly discovering the joy of an evening where I don’t have to check my phone constantly. I’ll be talking about my Substack journey for the NZ Society of Authors on Thursday. Details here if you’re interested.

• Taiwan deliberately slowed mobile data to text-only speed last week as part of a simulated attack on its critical infrastructure. Every year, Taiwan holds drills — military and civilian — as preparation for a Chinese assault, but this is the first year it tested how the island would cope if Beijing disrupted its communications. For half an hour, there were no video calls, no streaming, no TikTok. From the New York Times (gift link):

The government of President Lai Ching-te has stepped up the publicity about this year’s civilian exercises, emphasizing the danger posed by China — which under Xi Jinping has expanded its multitudes of warships, landing vessels and missiles that could support an invasion of Taiwan. Mr. Xi says he hopes to absorb Taiwan peacefully but will not rule out using force.

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Three things I’m watching

• Will we hear more from Beijing following last week’s report from the NZ Security Intelligence Service that outlined Chinese espionage and interference attempts in New Zealand? The Chinese embassy in Wellington said the report “fabricates and hypes” and the state-affiliated Global Times called it “‘compensatory hawkishness’ aimed at demonstrating its reliability within the Five Eyes alliance.” We may not have heard the last of this.

  

• Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown looks set for a second term, with his Cook Islands Party on track to secure a supermajority and lead the government again following elections last week, according to the Cook Islands News.
  Brown said he expected the Cook Islands’ diplomatic rift with New Zealand last year and a major reshaping of the country’s foreign partnerships to be on voters’ minds as the Pacific increasingly becomes a battleground for influence between Beijing and western powers. Brown told the Guardian last week that the diplomatic fallout “does have bearings” on voters, saying “our people are quite mindful and aware of what happens in the geopolitical space”.

  “For us in the Cook Islands, it’s important that these engagements are on our terms … and that their collaboration with us is on areas that we’ve identified as priorities for the Cook Islands,” he told the outlet.

  The question is how he manages these relationships in his second term.

• The Trump administration is set to impose a wide-ranging 50 per cent tariff on products from Canada on Wednesday, accusing it of engaging in unfair trading practices after provinces had halted the purchase of US alcohol, slapped tariffs on US cars and discriminated against American cheese. Negotiations are underway and Canadian businesses are bracing for impact, the Financial Times reports. Will the TACO theory apply here? And how will Mark Carney, champion of the Middle Powers, handle this latest affront?

Finally, last week I asked for suggestions about New Zealand’s best political speeches, and Emile Donovan told me on his Nights show on RNZ that Maurice Williamson’s “big gay rainbow” speech absolutely had to be on it. Which of course sent me to re-watch it. Absolutely golden:

I’m furiously finishing a feature story for you, so there will be no midweek post this week. I’ll have another episode of The Detail to share on Saturday.

-anna