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Numbers & Nonsense · Oct 17, 2024

6 Storylines for NFL Week 7: You Won, So What's the Point of Keeping Score?

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Andy Tulin · Numbers & Nonsense

Both of the NFL’s remaining unbeaten teams return from their bye weeks to face the participants in last year’s NFC Championship Game in without question the most loaded week so far this NFL season. First up, Brock Purdy and the 49ers get another chance to pit their best laid plan against Patrick Mahomes’s sleight of hand…

The Chiefs and 49ers will become the 10th team to play a regular season rematch of the previous season’s Super Bowl, with Kansas City looking to make the Super Bowl winners 7-3 in the rematches.

  • The Chiefs are doing it for the second straight season after losing to the Eagles last year and were also on the wrong end of a rematch of their Super Bowl IV win over the Vikings in 1970. Kansas City is 0-2 as the champion in Super Bowl rematches while the rest of the NFL is 6-1 in that scenario (the loss was by Dallas against Buffalo in 1993).

  • This is the fifth time it’s happened since 2014, before which there hadn’t been a rematch since 1997. Super Bowl winners had won four straight rematches before the Chiefs lost last year.

The Chiefs are coming off a bye following their first multiple-possession win of the season by a 26-13 margin over the Saints. Kansas City’s +33 scoring margin is the slimmest for any 5-0 team in 20 years, since the 2004 Jets had a +31 margin en route to a 5-0 start and 10-6 finish.

  • The Chiefs are the sixth Super Bowl era team to start 5-0 with a margin of +33 or worse. Only one of the previous five made the Super Bowl (2003 Panthers; others: 1990 49ers, 1998 Jaguars, 2000 Vikings and 2004 Jets).

  • Patrick Mahomes finished without a touchdown pass in the win over the Saints while posting his fourth straight game with a QB rating in the 80’s — the longest streak of games with a sub-90 QB rating in his career (previously three straight in both 2019 and 2021). If you’re reading this you probably know by now that his regular season slump dates back nearly a year with a QB rating (86.8) nearly identical to the one he had last game (86.6).

The 49ers are slim 1.5-point favorites as of Wednesday night, looking to win two in a row for the first time this season after their most impressive win thus far last Thursday night in Seattle by a 36-24 margin. QB Brock Purdy probably isn’t getting the credit he deserves for putting the 49ers offense on his back in the absence of Christian McCaffrey.

  • Purdy’s QB rating is at 100.5, down from 113.0 last year when he led the NFL in the category and was 4th in the MVP voting, but he’s taken on a more demanding load in the offense than ever with CMC out. He’s averaging 9.6 air yards per attempt and spending an average of 2.8 seconds in the pocket, both most in the NFL and significantly higher than he posted over his first two seasons.

Barring a tie, either the Lions will pull into a tie for the NFC North lead or the Vikings will be up two games with head-to-head wins over both the Lions and Packers and a pair of meetings left with the Bears.

  • Detroit’s won three straight meetings with the Vikings as well as four of the last five dating back to 2021. The Lions snapped a five-game losing streak in Minneapolis with a 30-24 win last December.

Detroit’s looking for its fourth straight win after coming out of the bye last week to dismantle the Cowboys 47-9 in Dallas — the most points the Lions have scored on the road since 1952 and the second-most in franchise history.

  • The Lions scored 42 points in their previous game against the Seahawks, giving them consecutive games with at least 42 points for the first time since 1962 and the fifth time in franchise history (they’ve never had a three-game streak).

  • Lions QB Jared Goff wasn’t literally perfect last week after going 18-for-18 in the win over the Seahawks, but he’s been outstanding during this win streak with 113+ QB ratings in each game after having a rating of 85 or worse in the first two games this season.

Minnesota’s favored by less than a field goal at home as it looks to improve to 6-0 for the first time since 2009, when they started 6-0 and 10-1 en route to a 12-4 finish and overtime NFC Championship Game loss in New Orleans.

  • The Vikings have started 6-0 six times in franchise history — the seasons have resulted in a Super Bowl loss (1973), three NFC Championship losses (1998, 2000 and 2009), a Divisional round loss (1975) and a missed postseason (2003).

  • The Vikings will have to hope that the rapid approach of Halloween doesn’t find Sam Darnold seeing ghosts again. The pleasant surprise of the NFL season is enjoying his best campaign by a mile despite making negative plays at very similar rates to the first six years of his career.

It’s funny to think back to last summer when it wasn’t clear what the future held for either C.J. Stroud or Jordan Love as they entered their first seasons as NFL starters (Stroud’s rookie season period). Not even a season-and-a-half later, they square off in a showcase of two of the NFL’s brightest young stars.

Love’s thrown 44 touchdowns since the start of the 2023 regular season, tied with Dak Prescott for the most in the NFL.

  • He’s thrown 45 touchdowns over the first 22 regular season starts of his NFL career (including one in 2021), sixth-most since 1950 over a QB’s first 22 starts behind only Patrick Mahomes (61 touchdowns), Kurt Warner (58), Dan Marino (53), Tony Romo (49) and Justin Herbert (47).

  • Magdalena Green Bay has won two in a row after a loss for the second time this season. They’ve held their opponents under 20 points in all four wins (56 points allowed, 14.0 per game) but allowed over 30 in both losses (65 points allowed, 32.5 per game)

Stroud is averaging 270.7 passing yards per game over the last two seasons, most in the NFL among players with 15+ starts.

  • He’s thrown for 5,685 yards over the first 21 regular season starts of his NFL career, fourth-most since 1950 over a QB’s first 21 starts behind only Mahomes (6,891), Warner (6,300) and Herbert (6,107).

  • Stroud’s Texans have matched the best start in franchise history at 5-1, equaling the 2012 team’s mark en route to a 12-4 finish and AFC South title. These Texans have a ways to go if they’re going to one-up the 2012 squad, which won 11 of its first 12 before going 1-3 to close out the regular season losing in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

There could have been two Heisman quarterback showdowns this week, but Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels is being simulated on the practice field by Bryce Young instead of facing him as the Panthers starter. Monday’s Lamar Jackson-Baker Mayfield still pits the 2016 and 2017 Heisman winners against each other, though, to continue a streak that isn’t gonna end for a bit barring injury or benching.

  • Remarkably, this is the fifth straight week featuring an NFL matchup between two former Heisman winners as starting QB — Daniels and Joe Burrow in Week 3, Daniels and Kyler Murray in Week 4, Jackson and Burrow in Week 5 and most recently Jackson and Daniels last week.

  • The streak should last at least another week as the last two Heisman winners Daniels and Caleb Williams will square off in next week’s Bears-Commanders matchup.

  • Williams and the Bears then head to the desert to presumably face Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, so the streak should extend again in Week 9.

  • Week 10 kicks off with the second Bengals-Ravens matchup of the season on Thursday night, so that should extend the streak to eight weeks.

  • Week 11 won’t feature a Heisman quarterback battle, but for a ninth straight week there’ll be Heisman winners on both sides of the field when Daniels and the Commanders visit 2020 Heisman winner Devonta Smith and the Eagles on Thursday night.

  • Barring anything extremely unexpected, Week 12 will mark the end of the streak. Cue Mark Ingram coming out of retirement to join the Chargers for their MNF game against the Ravens.

The Ravens will look for their fifth straight win since starting 0-2 when they visit Tampa Monday night to take one of only three teams out-scoring it this season.

  • The NFL’s fourth (Ravens, 29.5 points per game) and second (Bucs, 29.7, tied with Commanders) highest-scoring offenses square off in this matchup. They’re the only teams with active streaks scoring 30+ points, each having done it three times in a row.

  • The Ravens have scored 28+ points in all four of their wins this season in addition to their 30-point streak. It’s the seventh time in Ravens history they’ve scored at least 30 points in three straight games, trailing only five-game streaks last season and in 2019 for the longest such streaks in franchise history.

  • The Bucs actually have fewer streaks of three straight 30-point games than the Ravens overall despite the franchise having a head start by a couple decades. But like the Ravens, the streak is tied for the franchise’s third-longest and trails only a couple of Tom Brady-led streaks (five in 2020, four in 2021) for the longest 30-point streak in Bucs history.

Last week I suggested that the Steelers should try to leave their visit to Las Vegas with now-former Raider Davante Adams on the plane. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they would’ve only been giving him a ride to his first destination with his new team as the former Packer two teams removed inevitably reunited with his fellow future Hall of Fame former quarterback with the Jets.

  • Adams and Aaron Rodgers will resurrect one of the most prolific QB-receiver connections in NFL history. They’ve connected for the sixth-most touchdowns (76, tied for 6th), 14th-most receiving yards (8,427) and 10th-most receptions (687) of any duo since 1991.

It’s unclear as of Wednesday who will start at quarterback for the Steelers, but it certainly feels like Justin Fields is going to give way to Russell Wilson sooner than later with the former Super Bowl winner getting first-team reps in practice. It’s hard not to feel for Fields, who’s poured everything he has into the Steelers’ 4-2 start and isn’t exactly surrounded by targets the caliber of, for instance, Davante Adams.

  • Fields has both run and thrown for five touchdowns this season, the only player in the NFL who can say that. He’s one of only four quarterbacks in the NFL with at least five touchdown passes with one or fewer interceptions so far (also Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Joe Flacco) and he’s tied for fifth in the league with five rushing touchdowns, most among QBs.

I am legally required to acknowledge that this game is a sacred battle between (chronologically speaking) Bestie 2 and Bestie 3. My official stance is that I hope both teams lose (you both know I have the shirt to prove it) and I won’t even be watching because I’ll either be at MSG seeing Maggie Rogers or at Barclays sweating out Game 5 of the WNBA Finals (MY FOREVER FAVE SABRINA FOR PRESIDENT).

It’s never lonely in the middle of the Venn diagram

There wasn’t much intrigue in this week’s matchup with the Titans (1-4) before the Bills traded for their new #1 receiver and that certainly didn’t make it more compelling. But it’s worth acknowledging that Buffalo, which already was among the top contenders for the Super Bowl, and top MVP contender Josh Allen, look to have gotten significantly better this week.

  • Cooper had a career-high 1,250 receiving yards last season and has been one of the most productive receivers in football since coming into the league. He’s in the top 10 in the NFL in regular season catches (691, 8th), receiving yards (9,736) and receiving touchdowns (62, 7th) since 2015. Only Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce and Keenan Allen are ahead of him in any of those categories.

  • The Bills are seventh in the NFL averaging 27.5 points per game, but 25th in passing yards per game averaging just 186.3 as they had struggled to fill the void left by trading former #1 receiver Stefon Diggs among other departures.

  • Even without a go-to target, Allen is less than a half-point shy (106.8) of his career-high QB rating (107.2 in 2020) and has thrown 10 touchdowns without an interception after throwing a career-high 18 picks last season.

Read the original on andytulin.substack.com

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