Good Morning. So the new legal basis for tariffs is forced labor practices? 😂
The portfolio hasn’t changed since last week, but there is one setup that looks promising. The broad maritime shipping etf BOAT is breaking out to new highs and I’m looking to add it to the long term portfolios with a weekly close here.
Like all of our trades - it’s based on price movement. What others would call ‘fundamentals’ I call contextual information. It’s hard to argue that anything is fundamental to anything else in a radically polyvalent, world of process where our perception and beliefs color everything. We don’t see reality as it is, but rather how we believe and perceive it to be.
We inhabit a world of waves of potential on the self-perpetuating precipice of probability.
The bar is low for Iran or any other actor to disrupt global shipping. It’s also pretty cheap to do. It only takes one hit, or even the perception of a potential strike to raise global shipping rates.
The bar is impossibly high (and expensive) for the US to be the ‘guardian of the straight’ as promised. What’s the price of the perception of existential risk to the flow of goods?
Commodities are sending a strong signal that they are moving higher (in a highly volatile way), as 77% of the US strategic petroleum reserve has already been used in the attempt to hold prices down.
International stocks are mostly consolidating here - not breaking trend and we are holding our positions. Across the various country-specific ETF’s - they all kinda look like this:
With the notable exception of Singapore stocks - which we just added to a couple weeks back:
See you on the weekend,
-Andy
Swing Portfolio Performance Year-to-Date: 15.43%
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