What the First Week Actually Tells Us

It’s early.

Major League Baseball’s regular season, which began last week, won’t wrap up until the end of September. Roughly 95% of the season remains.

Despite the allure and prevalence of #HotTake culture, teams and executives generally ignore what happens in the first week.

The assumption is that it’s too early for anything to matter.

But is that actually true? Wins don’t count any less in March and April, and early contests offer the first real competitive data in months — data that could shift a team’s outlook.

To answer that, I looked at how much the first few games affect teams’ playoff odds.1

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The answer, on average, is not that much.

Over the last ten years, teams see their playoff odds change by 4.4% after the first week. If we extend the window to two weeks, the change moves to 6.2%.

Those aren’t the type of numbers that demand action. But remember, those are only averages.

For a meaningful number of teams, the landscape looks considerably different after only a few games. Nearly 12% of clubs see their odds move by more than 10% after a week. After two weeks, that jumps to more than one in five, with some odds moving as much as 20-30% over those timeframes.2

Most teams — the average teams — can stand to be patient. For teams that fall closer to the extremes, it’s important to examine early-season results. Has the team been especially lucky or unlucky? Did we improperly assess the talent of the team? How much of the movement is driven by the rest of the league’s play?

And by far the most important question: what are we going to do?

Because these shifts are meaningful. To put them in context: major trade deadline acquisitions improve playoff odds by 10-15%, and cost teams tens to hundreds of millions in surplus value.

For teams moving toward 50% odds — teams that were expected to make the playoffs off to a slow start or teams that are now surprise contenders — there’s opportunity to take action. To call on reinforcements from the Minor Leagues, make a tactical adjustment, or acquire outside help through a trade or signing.

Take last year’s Atlanta Braves. Coming off a seven-year run of playoff appearances, they were poised to contend for a title once again. Their playoff odds were 93.4% before their first game, but they quickly dropped to 69.4% after an 0-7 start.3

Other than shuffling the lineup a bit, the Braves decided to let things ride without intervention. After the seventh loss, manager Brian Snitker told the media, “It’s hard. And there’s nothing you can do but to fight your way out of it.”

That’s not true, though. Something can be done. Teams always have options, and yet, too often they do nothing.

Teams default to inaction because it’s less risky. Waiting draws far fewer eyes than promoting a prospect or making a trade. No one wants to overreact to a slow start and make the wrong move. But doing nothing, regardless of reason, is still a choice. And we rarely talk about the consequences of underreacting.

The 2025 Atlanta Braves failed to make the playoffs. It was the first time since 2017 they stayed home. It’s not clear what, if anything, they could have done, but the odds had shifted significantly after a mere seven days.

After this year’s first week, five teams have moved more than 10%.4 Two in particular (Boston and Houston) are in altogether different situations than they were prior to Opening Day.

These shifts should force real questions and dialogue within organizations. But most teams will ignore the results. They’ll stick to their priors and choose not to act. For some, that’s a decision they’ll regret in October.