Russia steps up its attacks on NATO

REMINDER: I published a new class as part of my Foreign Influence Operations course.

CLASS 21: WHY ARE THE FRENCH STEALING AFRICAN PENISES? is an in-depth look at Russia’s industrial-scale information operations in Africa and outlines why it matters. I hope you’ll check it out.

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On 29 May 2026, a Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two. The drone was in Romanian airspace for four minutes, not enough time for two scrambled NATO F-16s to shoot it down. It likely wasn’t deliberate—it was on its way to Ukraine probably—but nevertheless, NATO leaders rightly placed the blame squarely on Russia.

Never one to allow an incident to go unexploited, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s national security council, posted on X, “Citizens of EU countries, You should realize your authorities have unilaterally entered into a war with Russia. So be vigilant and don’t be surprised by anything. The peaceful sleep is over. But you know who to ask why.”

Similarly, several Ukrainian drones heading toward Moscow have been jammed by Russia, throwing them off course to crash in the Baltics. One such incident led to the fall of the government of Latvia. Russia then began a disinformation campaign claiming that the Baltic states were allowing Ukraine to use their territory to launch drones toward Russia, threatening that this might be reason enough for Russia to attack the Baltics. The group of Baltic presidents condemned Russia’s actions and firmly placed the drone incidents and disinformation campaign in the category of Russia’s hybrid war against NATO.

Last month, Anne Keast-Butler, the director of GCHQ, the United Kingdom’s intelligence, cyber, and security agency, said that Moscow is “relentlessly targeting critical infrastructure, democratic processes, supply chains, and public trust.” She added that Russia’s active measures against NATO are only going to get worse.

Some of these active measures may seem small or irrelevant. Vandalism of a statue. Graffiti on a wall. Other incidents are decidedly bigger. Arson that burns down an entire shopping mall. Derailment of a train in Poland. Plans to place bombs on cargo planes. None of these should be viewed in isolation. When put together, it becomes clear Russia has launched a strategic war against NATO in order to destabilize it.

OCCRP and its partners got ahold of documents that outline how these attacks are part of a strategic plan led by the Presidential Administration in the Kremlin, which oversees and funds the now sanctioned Russian PR firm Social Design Agency (SDA), known for running various information operations in Europe and the US (See Class 19).

According to the documents, the SDA has been building campaigns of what it calls “cognitive strikes” against the west.

The intent behind these attacks covers a broad spectrum: anger the public, decrease faith in our governments and their ability to respond to incidents, blame specific groups for the incident to increase societal tension, divert our limited resources. It’s not that any one of these incidents will paralyze society, but at scale, they can have an effect. Furthermore, they demonstrate the effort Russia is exerting to destabilize us. The Associated Press has been tracking these incidents. You can see an interactive map here.

While some of the incidents mentioned in the SDA documents did not come to fruition, similar incidents did. SDA had a plan to vandalize a monument to Charles de Gaulle, for example. That never happened. But other statues were in fact vandalized by proxies working for Russian intelligence.

The Russians also had a plan to throw sex dolls into the Seine river, which, admittedly, is kind of funny. They also used sex toys to hide their explosives in cargo planes, which is decidedly less funny.

Russia is only increasing its attacks and intimidation. A Russian warship now escorts shadow fleet vessels through UK waters. Russian officials openly warn European diplomats that if they stay in Kyiv, they might be killed. Last week, NATO jets intercepted six Russian jets over the Baltic Sea, marking an escalation in an already tense area.

According to OCCRP, one leaked SDA document says one of the goals of these operations is to help Russia “maintain the image of a superpower” on the world stage. “The more Russia participates in active influence campaigns all over the world, the stronger the image of a global Russian power.”

This is acutely important for Russia now because it is losing on the battlefield. Ukraine is retaking territory. Russian casualties are mounting. Ukraine is increasingly bringing the war to Russia through mid- and long-range strikes, including on Moscow and St. Petersburg. Besides the psychological impact of these strikes, they are also having real physical effects. Fuel is being rationed in 25 regions in Russia (up from just 15 regions last week!) and six areas in occupied Ukraine. Russia is like a cornered rat that will lash out in all directions. This is bound to lead to more attacks in Europe in an attempt to create fear about escalation, aimed at decreasing military support to Ukraine and trying, desperately, to convince the world Russia remains a world power everyone should be scared of, rather than the house of cards that it is.

The best way to counter this? Clearly define Russia as the enemy. They openly say they are at war with us. Let’s articulate that they then, by definition, are our enemy. It will then easily follow that we must give Ukraine everything it needs to defeat Russia. Push Russia back into Russia, and make sure it stays there.

A roundup of things you should be reading

The teenagers enlisted as agents of mayhem by Russia and Iran (FT)

Eyes On The Crew: The Russian Watchmen Aboard Moscow’s Sanctioned ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tankers (OCCRP)

With Bill Pulte, Trump Is Sending a Dangerous Message (NYT)

Trump DOJ Killed Criminal Probe of Sen. Jim Justice’s Southern Coal (ProPublica)

Just Security has launched WHAT JUST HAPPENED? as well as a litigation tracker to help readers keep up with the chaos

Lawfare is tracking all Executive Orders and related lawsuits and providing excellent and needed analysis

Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She writes and teaches about terrorism, disinformation / covert influence, and oligarch yachts. Her writing has appeared in Slate, Reductress, Funny or Die, POLITICO, The Center for Public Integrity, and other publications. She has spoken to the BBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, France24, and numerous other media outlets. She was also invited once to speak at Harvard, which she now tells everyone within the first ten seconds of meeting them. She is the author of the Victor Caro series, satirical novels about the CIA. Before joining the CIA, Alex was a journalist, covering Capitol Hill, the Pentagon, and the Department of Energy. She reported on issues related to national security, intelligence, and homeland security. Did she mention she was invited to speak at Harvard?