The 2026 Oscars Are Unusually Open. Here’s My Ballot

One of the strange things about the Oscars is that most years, we spend months pretending there’s a race when there really isn’t one. By the time the ceremony arrives, the winners are usually obvious. Momentum and narratives harden, and the envelopes feel more like confirmation than surprises.

This year feels different.

Several major categories genuinely remain undecided, even Best Picture, which often becomes a coronation, feels like a real contest this year.

Two of the best films of the decade, maybe even the century so far, have arrived at the same time and are now competing directly against each other. In most Oscar races, either would walk to the trophy. Instead, they are splitting the vote, the attention, and apparently my capacity to rank things.

It calls to mind the year There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men collided in the major categories. Two titans, one winner, and a result that barely matters in retrospect. Both films now occupy the same place in film history. This year feels a little like that.

So rather than simply filling out a ballot, I’ve broken my picks down into a few parts:

• Who I think will win

• Who I would vote for

• The occasional grudge

Because no Oscars conversation is complete without at least one.

My Personal Top Three

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Train Dreams

Prediction:
One Battle After Another

Before explaining the pick, it’s important to say something about the race itself. From my perspective, Sinners and One Battle After Another are both masterpieces. Trying to separate them honestly feels like splitting hairs.

Whichever film wins, I’ll be thrilled for everyone involved.

What’s unfortunate is that these two films arrived in the same year. Looking back at recent Oscars, I suspect either film would have beaten CODA, Nomadland, Green Book, and The Shape of Water fairly comfortably. It would actually have been fascinating to see them compete against something like Oppenheimer or Everything Everywhere All at Once, but I think either would win over both.

So I’m not going to tear one film down to elevate the other.

What ultimately separates them for me is something very small. The final act of Sinners, the vampire-killing stretch, doesn't land quite as cleanly as the ending of One Battle After Another. That's the single hair between them.

The Grudge

Frankenstein. I found it boring and turgid, and if I were reshuffling the lineup, I would replace it with No Other Choice. Yes, I would remove Frankenstein before I remove F1.

Prediction:
Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another

Who I’d Like to See Win

A genuine tie between Paul Thomas Anderson & Ryan Coogler

I think One Battle After Another is slightly better directed, but there is a completely credible case for Coogler. Neither has won before. Both deserve one. May the best man win.

My Long-Running Oscar Grudge

The 2012 Oscars. Giving Ang Lee Best Director for The Life of Pi instead of PTA for The Master is how we ended up in this goddamn mess. I've had a decade to sit with this. I am not over it.

Prediction:

Michael B. Jordan - Sinners

I wouldn’t be surprised to hear any of four names: Michael B. Jordan, Timothée Chalamet, Wagner Moura, or Leonardo DiCaprio. Each has a plausible path. Precursors have not been helpful: The BAFTA’s who picked 9 of the last 10 winners, voted for someone not nominated. So, who was 2nd?

Chalamet was the clear-cut favorite. His campaign has been everywhere, and at a certain point, it started to feel less like campaigning and more like performance art. The problem is that sheer visibility can also create fatigue, which was multiplied by his not winning at SAG and BAFTA. SAG has never picked the same actor 2 years in a row, and Timothée won last year, so is he really going to fumble the award? (FYI his ballet comments came after voting closed).

That opens the door for Jordan. He gives a fantastic performance in one of the most culturally dominant films of the year, probably the most broadly popular Best Picture contender since Everything Everywhere All at Once. It is very easy to imagine him assembling enough votes to win, and if he does, it would be incredibly well deserved. The question is did his SAG award come to late? Is he going to split the ticket with Chalamet?

Then there is Wagner Moura, who might be the most interesting wildcard in the race. He has not won enough precursor awards to look like a traditional frontrunner, but the Academy has grown considerably more international over the past decade. In a race where the American contenders split the vote, a widely admired international performance can suddenly become very competitive. Also worth noting: Jordan is rightly praised for playing two roles in Sinners. Moura is quietly doing three.

If I were placing a bet, Moura would be the value pick.

Who I Would Vote For

Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another

I still do not understand why his performance is not being discussed more seriously. Is there a potential scenario that voters who were lukewarm on Sinners, did not see The Secret Agent, and were worn down by Chalamet's campaign, simply default to Leo? Was he 2nd place with BAFTA?

If he wins, I would be surprised but not shocked.

Grudge:

The best actor of his generation, with arguably the most consistent filmography of anyone not named John Cazale, has one Oscar. One.

Prediction:
Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

My Pick

Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Again, I am not interested in putting one performance down to elevate another. Buckley is a fantastic actor, and I completely understand why she is leading the race.

But if I am splitting hairs, Byrne’s role simply asks more of her. The performance covers a wider emotional range, moving between vulnerability, frustration, and a kind of brittle humour that keeps the character constantly off-balance. It is a difficult balance to maintain, and she holds it beautifully.

Buckley is excellent, as always. But the film left me strangely unmoved, which inevitably affects how the performance lands. So while I expect Buckley to win, Byrne is the name on my ballot.

The Frustration

This should have been a much closer race.

Prediction:
Sean Penn - One Battle After Another

Penn has led this race for a while. It has tightened somewhat, but he still feels like the most likely winner heading into the ceremony.

My Pick

Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another/ Stellan Skarsgård - Sentimental Value

This is a genuine tie for me between Benicio del Toro and Stellan Skarsgård.

Del Toro is central to how One Battle After Another works. Without him, the film loses much of its rhythm and energy. Learning that he was able to reshape parts of the role once he arrived on set only makes it more impressive. The performance feels loose, confident, and unpredictable in a way that perfectly matches the film. He is, however, in the movie for twelve minutes.

Skarsgård, meanwhile, continues one of the great acting careers of the last thirty years. This performance sits comfortably among the best of his work. There is a quiet authority to what he does here. Nothing feels forced, and yet the character commands attention every single time he appears. Also, he who controls the spice controls the universe.

If either of them won, I would be delighted. So I’m using the only tie for this category. Sue me.

The Grudge

Jacob Elordi. I’m sorry. I just don’t get it. Have one less nominee for all I care.

Prediction:
Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another

My Pick

Renate Reinsver or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value

The relationship between Agnes and Nora is the emotional core of the film. Without it, the story loses most of its power, and Lilleaas anchors that relationship beautifully. It is not a performance built on big dramatic moments. It relies on small reactions and subtle shifts in feeling, and those are exactly the choices that make the film resonate.

A note on Reinsve: she is nominated for Best Actress, but if she were in this category instead, she could have won it in a landslide.

The Snub

Tânia Maria in The Secret Agent.

Her performance as Dona Sebastiana, the woman quietly running the film’s strange mini utopia, is warm and commanding. If I were reshuffling the nominees, I would include her without hesitation.

Prediction and Pick:
Ryan Coogler — Sinners

This one is signed, sealed, and delivered. Congratulations Ryan.

Grudge:Consider this my placeholder for a rant about Sorry Baby not being nominated at the Oscars. I'll keep it brief because the film doesn't need me to defend it, and because I could genuinely go on for a long time. Just know that the absence stings, and I'll be thinking about it when they list the nominees in this category.

Prediction:
Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another

After Coogler for Best Original Screenplay, this is the clearest slam-dunk for the night.

The Grudge

Frankenstein. I would replace it with No Other Choice without hesitation.

Prediction:
Sentimental Value

This feels like one of the more straightforward races of the night, but it’s actually quite close. Sentimental Value has had the strongest momentum for months, and it would be a surprise at this point if it lost. Despite the precursors, I think The Secret Agent has a real shot to win.

My Pick

The Secret Agent.

I admire so much about The Secret Agent. It withholds information, allows tension to build slowly, and trusts the audience to sit with uncertainty. It is a film that works on atmosphere and character as much as plot. By the time everything finally clicks into place, the slow pace feels completely justified.

I would also put It Was Just an Accident ahead of the eventual winner.

The Snub

No Other Choice.

The way Neon has approached international distribution in recent years is very smart. They go to Cannes, acquire the strongest titles, and ensure those films receive proper international visibility. But that strategy also means some films inevitably get squeezed out.

Unfortunately, No Other Choice feels like the casualty this year. If I were reshuffling the nominees, I would absolutely include it. I would probably replace either of Sirât or The Voice of Hind Rajab to make room.

It is one of the best films of the year, and its absence from the category is difficult to understand.

Prediction:
Sinners

This is still a relatively new category and there remains some confusion about what the award is meant to recognize.

Is it the best ensemble cast or the best casting?

Those are not quite the same thing. A film can assemble a great cast simply by hiring famous actors. Casting, to me, should be about finding the right performers and discovering talent that the audience may not already know. If the award is interpreted that way, the conversation becomes much more interesting.

The case for Sinners: Every role, from the leads down to the smallest parts, feels precisely inhabited. The bold choices (Miles Caton) outside the obvious names are a significant part of why the film works. It is the kind of ensemble where you cannot imagine a single different face in any of the seats.

The case for One Battle After Another: Casting unknowns is its own discipline, and arguably the purer test of the craft. It requires an eye unclouded by box office, one focused entirely on who is simply right. When it works, the performances feel so lived-in that the lack of famous faces stops registering entirely. That kind of trust in unknown talent is exactly what this award should be celebrating.

My Pick

Sinners

Francine Maisler deserves her Oscar.

The Grudge

How Sentimental Value missed this category makes absolutely no sense when they had FOUR acting nominations, and only 1 is English-speaking. Make it. Make sense.

Prediction:
Ludwig Göransson — Sinners

This feels like one of the clearer wins of the night. Göransson’s score carries enormous energy and atmosphere, and it plays a major role in shaping the film’s tone. It is exactly the kind of musical identity that tends to resonate with the Academy.

The musical transfiguration halfway through the film is one of the greatest 5 minutes I’ve experienced in a cinema. Ever.

My Pick

Ludwig Göransson — Sinners.

The Grudge

How Jonny Greenwood has still never won an Oscar is one of the stranger facts about modern film awards. Greenwood has produced some of the most distinctive film scores of the past twenty years. He shouldn’t win this year, but at a certain point, the oversight stops being a coincidence and starts being a statement about what the Academy thinks a film score is supposed to sound like. I think they’re wrong.

I would also have included Marty Supreme in this category. Don’t ask me who I would’ve removed because you already know.

Prediction
“Golden” - K-Pop Demon Hunters

This feels like one of the more straightforward categories of the night. “Golden” has the kind of visibility and momentum that usually carries a song all the way through the season.

My Pick

“I Lie to You” - Sinners

If I were filling out the ballot myself, this is the one I would choose. It is the song that stayed with me the longest after the film ended.

The Small Grudge

I am not even convinced that “Golden” is the best song in K-Pop Demon Hunters. If I were picking my favourite track from the film, I would actually choose “Soda Pop.”

Which means my ballot would somehow manage to disagree with the Academy and the film itself at the same time.

I’m sorry about the inconsistent formatting, graphic designers deserve every penny they’re paid.

Note: If I didn’t see all the nominees I didn’t pick for myself.

By Monday morning, some of these predictions will look clever, and others will look ridiculous. Fortunately, none of it really matters.

And if the Academy gets it wrong, I’ll fix it in ten years when I hand out the correct winners in my Oscars Ten Years Later blog.

I’ve already started with the 2016 ceremony:

The Ten-Year Oscars

·

Mar 1

I have a proposal to fix the Oscars and, crucially, it is both elegant and completely unworkable, which gives it a real chance of being correct.