Weekly Oil Statistics

The EIA reported a crude oil inventory build of 17,423 MBbls, against a Bloomberg survey looking for a build of 2,034 MBbls, a miss of 15,389 MBbls and the single most bearish line in this report. Commercial crude inventories stand at 424.4 MMBbls, 1.9 MMBbls below last year and 9.1 MMBbls below the five-year average of 433.5 MMBbls, so the level is still a touch tight even after a build this size. The build came from the trade side rather than from weak refining: crude imports jumped 1,140 MBbl/d to 7,339 MBbl/d while exports fell 627 MBbl/d to 3,058 MBbl/d, and refinery runs held at 17,179 MBbl/d. Products went the other way and cushioned the headline: gasoline stocks drew 0.968 MMBbls and jet fuel drew 1.691 MMBbls, propane built 1.871 MMBbls, and distillate was essentially unchanged.

Storage Change vs. Analyst Estimates

• The print was a build of 17,423 MBbls against the Bloomberg survey of 2,034 MBbls, a miss of 15,389 MBbls.

• The API had pointed to a build of 9,100 MBbls the evening before, much closer to the mark, yet still 8,323 MBbls short of what the EIA printed.

Inventories

• Commercial crude inventories rose 17.422 MMBbls to 424.410 MMBbls, leaving them 2.289 MMBbls below last year on the EIA basis, or 0.5 percent. The SPR drew another 6.115 MMBbls to 298.694 MMBbls and is now 104.508 MMBbls below last year, so total government plus commercial cover keeps thinning underneath a bearish weekly headline.

• Cushing stocks built 1.611 MMBbls to 22.566 MMBbls, 0.485 MMBbls below the 23.051 MMBbls of a year ago. The delivery point absorbed only a small share of the national build, which leaves little slack at the point that sets WTI.

DOE Total US Crude Oil Production

• Domestic crude production was 13,805 MBbl/d, up 1 MBbl/d on the week and 478 MBbl/d above last year. Supply growth has not stalled.

• The Lower 48 supplied 13,401 MBbl/d of that total, up 25 MBbl/d on the week and 392 MBbl/d above last year, while Alaska slipped 24 MBbl/d to 404 MBbl/d. All of the year-over-year growth is Lower 48 shale, not the North Slope.

Refinery Inputs

• Crude oil input to refineries was 17,179 MBbl/d, up 26 MBbl/d on the week and flat against last year. Runs at that level rule out a run-cut explanation for the crude build.

• The four-week average of 17,183 MBbl/d sits above last year’s 17,038 MBbl/d, 0.9 percent higher, so refiner demand for crude is holding near the top of its seasonal range even as margins get tested.

Crude Imports and Exports

• Crude exports fell 627 MBbl/d to 3,058 MBbl/d, 519 MBbl/d below last year. Weak export pull is the clearest single driver of the build, and it is the leg most likely to reverse next week.

• Crude imports rose 1,140 MBbl/d to 7,339 MBbl/d, 419 MBbl/d above last year, and net imports including the SPR climbed 1,767 MBbl/d to 4,281 MBbl/d. Barrels arrived and did not leave, which is the whole story of this week’s crude number.

Gasoline

• Gasoline stocks drew 0.968 MMBbls to 208.690 MMBbls, 17.600 MMBbls below last year, and this year’s line sits below the five-year range for August. Tight gasoline is the main offset to the bearish crude print.

• Implied gasoline demand was 8,964 MBbl/d, down 67 MBbl/d on the week and 36 MBbl/d below last year. Demand is close to flat year over year, so the stock draw is coming from supply discipline rather than from a consumer surge.

Propane

• Propane and propylene stocks built 1.871 MMBbls to 104.974 MMBbls, 16.362 MMBbls above last year, or 18.5 percent. That is a comfortable pre-winter position and it caps the upside a propane seller should expect into the shoulder season.

• Propane and propylene supplied fell 162 MBbl/d to 747 MBbl/d, though still 30 MBbl/d above last year. The weekly drop is the normal lull before heating demand and crop drying return.

Distillate

• Distillate stocks were essentially unchanged at 107.149 MMBbls, a draw of only 0.010 MMBbls, and remain 6.536 MMBbls below last year. The year-over-year deficit, not the weekly move, is what matters for a diesel consumer.

• Distillate supplied dropped 483 MBbl/d to 3,458 MBbl/d, 243 MBbl/d below last year. That is a real drag on the demand side and it is why stocks held flat despite a thin cushion.

Jet Fuel

• Jet fuel supplied jumped 353 MBbl/d to 1,982 MBbl/d, 153 MBbl/d above last year, the strongest year-over-year demand of any product in this report. Jet is the one clean demand signal in the release.

• Jet fuel stocks are not charted here. They stand at 45.186 MMBbls after a 1.691 MMBbls draw and remain 1.443 MMBbls above last year, so the strong lift is being met out of inventory rather than from tight supply.