‘A Flawed Idea’: Why A BRICS Currency Is Overrated And Unlikely To Work
Warning: quite a long piece on my issues with BRICS
Speculators Anonymous
Macro-economics + contrarian speculation + optionality + book reviews
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Dormant Last read · last published · next check
Read 2 days ago and current, but nothing has been published for 3 years.
Latest episodes
Gold Demand Remains Strong, But It’s The Diminishing Supply That’ll Keep Pushing Prices Higher
Many longtime readers know that I’m a fan of gold.
Auto Loan Chaos: Is The Auto Debt Market Finally Nearing A Tipping Point?
**Note: I am looking at optionality plays betting against an auto loan market bust for SA:P as I believe the car market (which is highly dependent on credit) must sink as bank tightening occurs (more below ~ enjoy)
The Commercial Real Estate Market Is A Ticking Time Bomb For Small Banks
It’s been almost three weeks since Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) blew up.
‘Ahoy! Trouble Ahead!’: A Tidal Wave of Overcapacity Signals Downside in Global Shipping
Last week I wrote an article highlighting the sinking global trade volumes and earnings recession that most likely will follow.
The Minsky Moment and Theory of Reflexivity: What Minsky and Soros Taught Us About Instability
*Repost from SpeculatorsAnonymous.com
A Global Earnings Recession Looms And Zombie Companies Are The Most Fragile
Back in October, I wrote about the looming global earnings recession.
The Yield Curve is Steepening – And This is The True Signal of Trouble Ahead
Back in August, I wrote about the U.S.
Anatomy of a Blowup: SVB is The First Domino To Fall – And More Are Coming
Markets continue to roil from the second and third largest U.S.
The Disappearing Pandemic Era Savings And Over-Leveraged Consumers Are The Seeds For Crisis
**This was originally published on SpeculatorsAnonymous.com
The Global Savings Glut: How Excess Savings and Diminishing Returns Created A Debt-Trap For All Of Us
Many longtime readers know that I’ve remained bullish on U.S.
Macro-Thoughts: Yes, Labor Markets Are Tight - And It's Because of a Demographic Crisis
February 3, 2023
How An Inverted Yield Curve Actually Amplifies A Recession As Banks Tighten Credit
Back in August, I wrote about the deeply inverting U.S.
Deflation And Slowing Growth: Why 2023 Will See Both Continue And Cause Fragility
Back in the summer of 2022 – I wrote that I believed inflation had peaked and would come down for the rest of the year.
The Hong Kong Dollar Peg And Economy Are Stuck in a Rut – And Here’s Why Something Must Break
https://speculatorsanonymous.com/articles/hong-kong-peg-and-fragile-economy/
China’s Property Sector Sinking Fast As Debt Deflation Looms
Shared from SpeculatorsAnonymous.com
The Housing Market is Fragile: Downside as Real Estate Prices Fall
Reposted from my site: https://speculatorsanonymous.com/articles/housing-market-fragility/
Welcome To Speculators Anonymous
I’m Adem Tumerkan: a former analyst now solo-writer, macro-speculator, skeptic - I’m Long optionality, volatility, cycles; I’m Short efficient markets, reductionism, fragility
'Triffin's-Dilemma': Why Smaller U.S. Deficits Are Increasing Global Fragility
Many pundits are talking about the U.S.
A Global Trade and Earnings Recession Looms as Fed Over-Tightens
A few weeks ago – I wrote an article highlighting the four major global indicators that show more economic downside ahead.