# Speculators Anonymous Macro-economics + contrarian speculation + optionality + book reviews Page: Feed: --- ## [‘A Flawed Idea’: Why A BRICS Currency Is Overrated And Unlikely To Work](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/a-flawed-idea-why-a-brics-currency) _2023-05-10 · Adem Tumerkan_ Warning: quite a long piece on my issues with BRICS ## [Gold Demand Remains Strong, But It’s The Diminishing Supply That’ll Keep Pushing Prices Higher](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/gold-demand-remains-strong-but-its) _2023-04-26 · Adem Tumerkan_ Many longtime readers know that I’m a fan of gold. ## [Auto Loan Chaos: Is The Auto Debt Market Finally Nearing A Tipping Point?](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/auto-loan-chaos-is-the-auto-debt) _2023-04-19 · Adem Tumerkan_ \*\*Note: I am looking at optionality plays betting against an auto loan market bust for SA:P as I believe the car market (which is highly dependent on credit) must sink as bank tightening occurs (more below ~ enjoy) ## [The Commercial Real Estate Market Is A Ticking Time Bomb For Small Banks](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/the-commercial-real-estate-market) _2023-04-03 · Adem Tumerkan_ It’s been almost three weeks since Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) blew up. ## [‘Ahoy! Trouble Ahead!’: A Tidal Wave of Overcapacity Signals Downside in Global Shipping](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/ahoy-trouble-ahead-a-tidal-wave-of) _2023-03-29 · Adem Tumerkan_ Last week I wrote an article highlighting the sinking global trade volumes and earnings recession that most likely will follow. ## [The Minsky Moment and Theory of Reflexivity: What Minsky and Soros Taught Us About Instability](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/the-minsky-moment-and-theory-of-reflexivity) _2023-03-25 · Adem Tumerkan_ \*Repost from SpeculatorsAnonymous.com ## [A Global Earnings Recession Looms And Zombie Companies Are The Most Fragile](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/a-global-earnings-recession-looms) _2023-03-24 · Adem Tumerkan_ Back in October, I wrote about the looming global earnings recession. ## [The Yield Curve is Steepening – And This is The True Signal of Trouble Ahead](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/the-yield-curve-is-steepening-and) _2023-03-21 · Adem Tumerkan_ Back in August, I wrote about the U.S. ## [Anatomy of a Blowup: SVB is The First Domino To Fall – And More Are Coming](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-blowup-svb-is-the-first) _2023-03-17 · Adem Tumerkan_ Markets continue to roil from the second and third largest U.S. ## [The Disappearing Pandemic Era Savings And Over-Leveraged Consumers Are The Seeds For Crisis](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/the-disappearing-excess-savings-and) _2023-03-11 · Adem Tumerkan_ \*\*This was originally published on SpeculatorsAnonymous.com ## [Open directory of blogs (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/xtnwF3ZhF664) _2023-03-11 · **Sponsored**_ Drop URLs or OPML — get per-blog pages plus machine-readable JSON, OPML, text ## [The Global Savings Glut: How Excess Savings and Diminishing Returns Created A Debt-Trap For All Of Us](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/the-global-savings-glut-how-excess) _2023-02-10 · Adem Tumerkan_ Many longtime readers know that I’ve remained bullish on U.S. ## [Macro-Thoughts: Yes, Labor Markets Are Tight - And It's Because of a Demographic Crisis](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/macro-thoughts-yes-labor-markets) _2023-02-03 · Adem Tumerkan_ February 3, 2023 ## [How An Inverted Yield Curve Actually Amplifies A Recession As Banks Tighten Credit](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/how-an-inverted-yield-curve-actually) _2023-01-25 · Adem Tumerkan_ Back in August, I wrote about the deeply inverting U.S. ## [Deflation And Slowing Growth: Why 2023 Will See Both Continue And Cause Fragility](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/deflation-and-slowing-growth-why) _2023-01-13 · Adem Tumerkan_ Back in the summer of 2022 – I wrote that I believed inflation had peaked and would come down for the rest of the year. ## [The Hong Kong Dollar Peg And Economy Are Stuck in a Rut – And Here’s Why Something Must Break](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/the-hong-kong-dollar-peg-and-economy) _2022-12-25 · Adem Tumerkan_ https://speculatorsanonymous.com/articles/hong-kong-peg-and-fragile-economy/ ## [China’s Property Sector Sinking Fast As Debt Deflation Looms](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/chinas-property-sector-sinking-fast) _2022-11-16 · Adem Tumerkan_ Shared from SpeculatorsAnonymous.com ## [The Housing Market is Fragile: Downside as Real Estate Prices Fall](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/the-housing-market-is-fragile-downside) _2022-11-02 · Adem Tumerkan_ Reposted from my site: https://speculatorsanonymous.com/articles/housing-market-fragility/ ## [Welcome To Speculators Anonymous](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/welcome-to-speculators-anonymous) _2022-10-23 · Adem Tumerkan_ I’m Adem Tumerkan: a former analyst now solo-writer, macro-speculator, skeptic - I’m Long optionality, volatility, cycles; I’m Short efficient markets, reductionism, fragility ## ['Triffin's-Dilemma': Why Smaller U.S. Deficits Are Increasing Global Fragility](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/triffins-dilemma-global-liquidity-issue) _2022-10-06 · Adem Tumerkan_ Many pundits are talking about the U.S. ## [Persona-led AI publishing (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/AjphM2YohRrh) _2022-10-06 · **Sponsored**_ Generate drafts, schedule subdomain publishing, and keep human review where needed. ## [A Global Trade and Earnings Recession Looms as Fed Over-Tightens](https://ademtumerkan.substack.com/p/global-trade-and-earnings-recession) _2022-10-03 · Adem Tumerkan_ A few weeks ago – I wrote an article highlighting the four major global indicators that show more economic downside ahead.