AIA Newsletter August 2026

You will note a bit of housekeeping below in the AIA Portfolio.

I let some scope creep into the portfolio and added some names that did not necessarily meet the criteria for inclusion in the AIA Portfolio.

Some of the other names simply have not performed as anticipated. Time to sell and recycle cash back into ideas that have more potential upside.

One name, Technip FMC, is being sold after a 700%+ run. It has been one of our best performers, but potential upside is limited in my view, and so we part ways with one of our top returners, and I look to recycle capital into new ideas.

Lots of stocks removed from the portfolio.

I want to re-emphasize the thesis behind the AIA Portfolio.

I am looking for companies that can potentially have 3x-10x moves over three to five years.

We have had a couple of these in the portfolio already, and I have noticed some similar characteristics.

The main characteristic seems to be that any company that does multibag needs years for that to happen. Again, anything between 3-5 years is what I have experienced.

Another trait of multibaggers is that they are capital compounders that are discovered early on and spend years earning above-average returns and investing those excess returns back into the company.

The other type of company is one that has blown up or been mismanaged, and the price has collapsed.

Then an event occurs, such as new management taking over, business improving, or, in the case of a commodity producer, the market for the underlying commodity cyclically bottoming and then turning up.

My job is to try and find these companies. They are actually few and far between.

The other type of company I am looking for is what is called “event driven”. These are special situations that come up. These can be spinoffs, bankruptcy reemergence, legal outcomes, changes in management, etc. Basically, some event that changes the trajectory and prospects of the company.

I have spoken many times in the past about why it is important to be an engaged and active investor.

All of the Western democracies are facing a plethora of problems.

They are all in huge amounts of debt.

They have huge social responsibilities including health care and retirement burdens.

They cannot pay these obligations.

They have large populations of elderly people who will be expecting these benefits to be paid.

My view is that because people vote for free stuff and the politicians respond to this desire by voters to, as Bastiat said, “seek to live off of each other,” there is only one potential path.

All roads lead to inflation.

Here is the problem

I have talked about this ad infinitum. It does not matter who you vote for; you will get more spending. The political class responds to what the people want, or they are out of a job.

The bet is that because it is not a problem today, the problems can be put off for another day. It has worked brilliantly and will continue to work until it doesn’t.

Inflation is insidious even if the FED were to meet its fake 2% goal.

Our goal is to stay ahead of this inflation and to actually build wealth.

The other part of this that I wanted to mention is scarcity.

I want to try and identify things that are scarce. Things that we need to survive but that can’t be created out of thin air or by government fiat.

Scarcity that is created by government interventions into the economy by dumb policies, regulations, war, etc.

Well, that's it for now. I have an interesting way to buy into the re-emergence of the Venezuelan oil industry. It is a potential multi-bagger. Check it out below!