A Blue Kerala, A History of Triple-Digit Mandates, A Chief Ministerial Conundrum

After the Left Democratic Front’s historic 10 year rule — being the only ever incumbent government in Kerala to be re-elected to power — the United Democratic Front has clinched a landslide 102 seats, bettering its own record of 99 seats in the 2001 assembly elections.

The UDF won key seats, including Malappuram, where P.K. Kunhalikutty won with the highest margin of 85,327, Nilambur, where Aryadan Shoukath won by a margin of 54,851 votes, flipping an LDF bastion; Thrikkakkara, with Uma Thomas winning by 50,211 votes; Puthupally, with Chandy Oomen winning in Oommen Chandy’s stronghold by a margin of 52,907 votes; and Palakkad, where Ramesh Pisharody won his debut election. Moreover, the UDF won all the seats in Ernakulam.

Owing to anti-incumbency waves, the UDF won ~46%1 of the voteshare, and ~73% of seats. Anti-incumbency refers to the tendency of voters to vote against candidates in office — not necessarily because of their performance, but simply because they hold office.

Kerala has consistently witnessed this trend. During the contemporary period, since 1982, no incumbent government had been re-elected for a second consecutive term. Kerala kept on shifting from the LDF, to the UDF, and back.

However, in 2021, the Left Democratic Front — with Pinarayi Vijayan as the frontman — became the first-ever incumbent government to win an election consecutively. This led to the LDF being in power for a decade.

This victory of the Blues suggests that the trend of anti-incumbency could be making a comeback — that the status quo of Kerala’s “political pendulum” is finally being restored. However, it is to keep in mind that the political landscape in Kerala is showing early signs of a shift from a bipolar to a tripolar system — with the rise of the BJP–led National Democratic Alliance, and its best-ever Kerala assembly victory of three seats.

UDF’s spell in the 2026 election is nothing short of historic. While both coalitions have captured 99 seats before — the LDF in 2016 and the UDF in 2001 — it became the first government in the contemporary period to capture over 100 seats in the Niyamasabha.

Before this, there have been two instances of governments capturing over 100 seats. The first time it happened was during Kerala 1967 assembly elections, when E. M. S. Namboothirpiad and the CPI(M) led the Saptakakshi Munnani — the Seven Party Alliance or the United Front (1967–1969) — to win a whopping 117 seats2 out of 133, propping up the second Communist government in Kerala.

The second time a coalition won more than 100 seats was during the 1977 elections, when the United Front (1970–1979) led by the Congress won 111 seats — with K. Karunakaran swearing in as Chief Minister. But Karunakaran soon resigned, after he was referenced in the Rajan Case by the Kerala High Court. This led to A. K. Antony assuming role of CM. Antony also resigned, in protest against the Congress for indirect support to Indira Gandhi in the Chikmagalur by-election. Next, C. H. Moahammed Koya from the IUML became Chief Minister, and he too was forced to resign when his party lost support in the Assembly. This led to Article 356 being invoked, the Niyamasabha being dissolved and President’s Rule being imposed.

The UDF camp’s joy ends when the question of who should reside in the Cliff House begins. There are three candidates who could become the 13th Chief Minister — V. D. Satheesan, Ramesh Chennithala and K. C. Venugopal.

The public has taken to the streets. Across Kerala, in places like Thiruvananthapuram, Malappuram, Thrissur, Kozhikode and Kasargod, major rallies were held calling for V. D. Satheesan to be made the next Chief Minister.3

But ultimately, the decision stands with the All India Congress Committee — the High Command — to decide who among the big three gets the big seat.