Oil falls 6% as a fragile truce holds. The US dollar is set to surge if the Fed hikes this week, as a minority expect. The RBA is on alert for persistent inflation. And Bank Indonesia’s Governor resigns unexpectedly.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga unpacks what firm household consumption in Australia means for its economy, and interest rates.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Global markets are increasingly focused on the Fed’s rates decision due on Thursday morning Australian time, with market expectations for a hike rising to over 30%, so it’s seen as a ‘live’ decision. A rate hike would strengthen the US dollar, says ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman, who expects a ‘hawkish hold’.
Australian inflation figures for June are due tomorrow. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be watching for signs of inflation sticking around, says ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton, who is forecasting an annual inflation rate of 3.7% in the quarter, slightly below the RBA’s 3.8% forecast and enough to keep the cash rate on hold at 4.35%.
Adam says he’ll be watching a speech later today from RBA Governor Michele Bullock for an indication of whether the central bank has switched to focusing on the monthly figures, or is still watching the quarterly numbers closer.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened yesterday, as expected, but with a twist, says ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh.
Bank Indonesia’s long-time Governor Perry Warjiyo resigned unexpectedly yesterday, two years early, says ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you tomorrow with a look at what Australian inflation figures might mean for the Australian dollar.
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