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20VC · May 10, 2026

20VC Newsletter - 10th May 2026

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20VC · 20VC

Monday’s episode with Tobias Lütke, CEO @ Shopify:

Download the full transcript:

My 6 key takeaways:

  1. The $160 Billion CEO Who Did Not Want to Be CEO

To run a truly product-driven company, you must be in control of the company itself because the needs of a product and a business often diverge. This requires passing the “marshmallow test” by prioritizing a three-year perspective over immediate gratification. Founders must be willing to endure “bad numbers” in the short term if they believe it is the only way to reach the right long-term destination.

  1. The Best Engineers in Shopify Are Not Writing Code Anymore and the AI Does It for Them

AI now generates over 50% of the code at Shopify, and that number is steadily increasing. Many of the company’s best engineers have not written a single line of manual code since December 2023, as the release of advanced models like Opus changed the fundamental nature of the job. Engineering has shifted from manual execution to “steering” AI agents through high-level context engineering.

  1. Why AI Is Being Used as a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs

The current wave of industry layoffs is largely a result of “over-hiring” during the COVID era rather than displacement by AI. AI has become the “perfect scapegoat” for slow companies because it cannot fight back against the narrative that it is destroying jobs. In reality, AI is an incredible tool that improves productivity across every department when implemented correctly.

  1. Why We Are About to Enter a Golden Age of Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship is the most “AI-safe” and “AI-benefiting” career path available today. AI acts as a “handy sidekick” or co-founder, allowing individuals to focus on their core ambitions while the technology handles various execution tasks. The barriers to entry are dissolving; you no longer need a family background in business to understand that business formation is something real humans can do.

  1. Why We Need to Place More Not Less Scrutiny on Charitable Giving

Giving money is only virtuous if it yields results; prioritize what works over what sounds good. “Charity dollars” lack the “self-healing fitness function” provided by for-profit markets. Be skeptical of organizations that choose to opt out of market intelligence.

  1. Why Will Governments Regulating the Technology We and Our Children Use Push Us Into the Hands of the Chinese?

Age limits won’t stop kids from using AI; they will just drive them toward uncurated “donut” Chinese models. This risks exposing youth to a collectivist monoculture that censors historical truth. Such regulation trades individualistic enlightenment values for state control.

Thursday’s episode with Rory O’Driscoll, GP @ Scale, Jason Lemkin, Founder @ SaaStr:

Download the full transcript:

My 7 key takeaways:

  1. Why Gemini Is Behind but Why It Might Not Even Matter

Google is trailing in “coder love” as developers flock to Anthropic and OpenAI. While Gemini’s token growth lags behind competitors’ 10x gains, Google remains a powerhouse because it owns its model and distribution.

  1. Why Palantir Is a Mega-Buy Right Now

CEOs want $10M+ enterprise-wide transformations, not small point solutions. Palantir wins by delivering measurable, large-scale results. Their buying cycles are compressing as every stakeholder now attends the first meeting.

  1. Why Is Meta Being Chastised for Spending on Capex?

Meta’s $150B CapEx lacks the clear revenue attribution found in Google’s cloud backlog. Investors view it as a defensive hedge, a bet to be present if social shifts to chatbots. Critics argue a 10 to 15% ad lift does not justify such massive spend.

  1. Who Wins and Who Loses From the Application Explosion?

We are in the greatest application-building boom in history. Amazon and Microsoft win by providing the underlying compute for these new B2B apps. Meta loses because it gains nothing from this software sprawl.

  1. Atlassian Versus Twilio: Who Is the AI Hero Versus the Unsustainable Bounce?

Atlassian is successfully monetizing its base with Rovo AI, though new customer growth is slowing. Twilio has re-accelerated by becoming the essential API infrastructure for new AI agents. Winners must eventually drive both expansion and new customer acquisition.

  1. Should Microsoft Really Be Trading Like the Rest of SAAS Companies?

Excluding AI, Microsoft’s core business is flat to slightly down. Without the AI narrative, it would likely trade like a mature SaaS company at 3x revenue. Their growth is now entirely dependent on massive, high-risk CapEx bets.

  1. Why Your VP Needs to Be Full Stack and Do Everything End-To-End

AI is eliminating “managers of managers.” Founders now demand leaders who can actually ship. A modern VP should use agents to execute tasks, like campaigns, end-to-end in minutes. If an executive cannot lead from the front with these tools, they are a liability.

Saturday’s episode with Cliff Weitzman, Founder & CEO @ Speechify:

Download the full transcript:

Let us know what your big takeaways from this week’s shows were in the comments below!

Thank you for reading, and don’t miss the great guests we have next week:

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